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Regarding waiting to see what BHP do, can we assume that majors all have several irons in the fire? Solg is fairly high up on BHP's and NCM's target lists, as evidenced by their stakes, but they will have other options to explore. BHP seems to have the best relationship with Solg and be in pole position. But it's not guaranteed they will take Solg out. Maybe other majors are holding back on bidding to see if BHP does make a move or not because the last thing they want to do is waste their efforts on a bidding war with a very determined BHP, who will most likely win.
Let's say 15 Oct comes and goes, and then BHP makes some other large acquisitions in copper or gold. Maybe other majors will infer that despite liking Solg and keeping the option, in the end BHP decided to pursue other options first. That would give them confidence they could bid with a better chance of being successful if BHP has decided not to keep going for Solg.
If BHP are still keen on Solg, which I think the market is assuming they are, and another major tried to bid against them but ultimately lost, I don't think that works in the other bidder's favour at all. They will have spent large amounts of time and resources on a failed bid, and also by bidding and losing they will have triggered a need for themselves to go and buy something else. The market might think, "well you obviously needed a Tier 1 copper/gold asset, and you just lost out on one, so what are you going to do now? You better go and find one." If that is the case it probably makes their next target a bit harder to obtain, as they start to have an air of desperation about them. Targets can hold out for more knowing that the major failed to get Solg and is under pressure to secure a win to make up for it.
My main issue with today’s RNS is the lack of new dates in it. Everything is “being finalised” or “near completion”. Having missed a long established, and much publicised key milestone, I think the stakeholders deserve to be given some indication of how much slippage can be expected. Is it a couple of weeks, or months, or longer? I am listening to what they are saying.... unfortunately the answer is “not much”. Under such circumstances it’s completely understandable that people will read between the lines.
That's part of my argument ssmith_trader, Solgold can't sell. It doesnt belong to Solgold.
The share register is so diverse, that whoever wants to buy Solgold, has to convince the majority of these holding to sell out.
My point is they won't do BHP or NCM a favour and sell cheap.
They know what their stake is worth.
Also will NCM sell cheap to BHP, or continue to hold.
That means that BHP, will need to pay full price, near to full price, or maybe a premium.
Large cooperation's don't behave that way.
I also don't think there are many others who will bid for SOLG. With NCM and BHP with large stakes, no other company would only want a minority shareholding. We need to wait to see what NC do with their stake. If and only if they do decide to sell would another company bid come into play. Right now there are only 2 buyers.
Sorry addicknt, can you name me just one situation, where a company has been brought, only after the main player has announced their intentions.
In my time in I.T, we took over lots of companies, and were taken over twice ourselves. Our main competitor was IBM. Sometimes we were successful against IBM, sometimes we lost. We were a medium player in the market.
Never have I heard that we would wait to see what IBM would do, before we bid. Quite the opposite, and to a large degree this added to our success.
Quady, as I've said on numerous occasions, no one will bid until BHP's intentions become clear. Their competitors will be looking at the situation and will have no wish to act as a benchmark for BHP's move. They will wait until BHP have played their hand and at that point, decide whether they think it worthwhile trying to compete - which in my opinion, is most unlikely. If Barrick, NCM or anyone else wants a part of this, the ONLY way to do so will be in a jv with BHP - which I think is quite possible. BHP is in a very strong position and the market knows it.
The problem you have is that you've consistently underestimated, or under-played, the percentage shareholding held by BHP and NCM. Your view is that it's trivial; it is not. It's absolutely pivotal, as NM knows full-well.
Morning addicknt, as you say, nothing has been said, it proves neither of us.
I look at the evidence. BHP has provided none.
What we do know, is that anyone apart from BHP, can talk to NM and put in a friendly bid, or go hostile.
Yes doing this releases BHP, but the argument, that everyone is waiting to see what BHP does, holds no water.
If another major, thought they could get this cheap, then advancing talks, why BHP was in standstill, would be an advantage for them, and not a disadvantage.
Nobody has bid for Solgold successfully at this stage, that tells us a lot.
One thought on the current share price. We have not announced the PFS, we are at PEA stage.
So we are worth NPV about 3.4 billion pounds. The market cap is 530 million pounds.
So we are about 15% of NPV, which is about right for the PEA.
I expect this to double soon after PFS released, with only a moderate increase in NPV.
I believe it will be more than that, but as we have seen this takes time.
Quady, just out of interest, what have BHP said on the matter? And before you say this proves your "no evidence" argument, the fact is they will not say anything until they're ready to move. At that point, you'll get all the evidence you need.
Yes smickster, we are still in two camps on this chat room.
One side is listening to what's being said, the other side is reading between the lines.
Quady, I'm with you fella in that we have been told the truth all the way and that's the way it should be.
Like others im feeling a little anxious but surely that's normal with the progression, speculation and low sp we see here.
I get the feeling some traders feel locked in by the delays but rest assured this is moving exactly as we thought.
Cue drilling results and final push to get cgp on board and then release of pfs .
Schlemiel, I do hope you are going to be OK. But nothing wrong with what's going on, as if you had listened to the webinars, and news, that Solgold have published. Then you cannot be annoyed by the fact, that they are doing exactly what they said they will do. You seem to be annoyed, that Solgold has been honest with its share holders. That's a good thing in my book.
I don't know your circumstances, and do hope that you have other shares in your portfolio to concentrate on.
Don't let the fact, that you thought NM would sell this, has not happened. He has said he will sell at the right price.
The problem you have is a nice problem. That is the further we go to production, and the more sites we prove up, the greater that price is.
Golden rule of investment, never tie up money, that you cannot tie up for an indefinite amount of time. That way, you don't become a distressed seller. I wish you all the best.
Yes, it was definitely interesting how many 'offers' they had / were in talks with before they chose the streaming agreement. Reinforces that they won't have difficulty in raising the funds they need and as we saw from the streaming agreement it won't be as dilutive as just raising equity. I find it difficult then, to believe, a major would not want to buy SOLG. If this was another sector, you would have taken SOLG private and come back in a few years and float at 4x (min) mkt cap.
Bloody autocorrect, I changed it to Ingo twice, and it still came up into.
Hmmmm, I agree with addicknt, nothing to be concerned about, and a much fuller update, than last night.
ManfromUruguay, yes this will stop an informed bid, which is no bad thing, as will give us a chance to get some drill results out. ( a bid wasn't on the cards anyway).
For those, that say Solgold lack the expertise to construct this mine, we can see from the complexity of the PFS, that is clearly not the case.
I am now interested about full funding, as last night Into, said most of this from debt. Hooray, no dilution for the Alpala build, was what I read into that.
Lastly CGP. Into seemed unconcerned, about CGP, and the EGM, they are one year going to call.
He seemed to suggest that the money, they need to come forward with is 4 times that of their market cap.
However I don't know if anyone noticed, as no-one has commented about it.
Ingo said that CGP, have been trying to sell themselves, but nobody interested, and he confirmed, that they cannot borrow against Alpala. Unlike CGP, which have said they can.
I know who I believe.
So on we go to production.
As to concerns on the share price. Who cares, as value will be achieved eventually.
Was this strategically timed? With the delay of the PFS and hopefully some positive drilling results to be released soon, wouldn't this pressure for CGP to sell? This would tie things up nicely before a major makes a move. Either way, this RNS doesn't negatively impact Solg/Citi's overall strategy.
DIPS !! I see no dips only dipheads this morning... Feck me
well we all know what comes next. Drilling results. Time to buy the dip this morning and trade when the news hits.
I believe the market already knew that the PFS was delayed.
1 or 2 webinars ago the host said something like........So Nick the market can expect ..........., the PFS in the new year and.....da da da.
Oh please schlemiel....FACT.....!!!!
Pinot
Hi Colonal-would the delay not impact BHP making a move ? Do they not need the PFS to assess value for a bid ? Best R MFU
Let's hope the drilling results follow on pronto..I agree with Schlemiel and CD. I am learning very quickly that trying to go it alone is fraught with danger. GGP have had NC alongside and there has been no covid delays and drilling,mining leases etc etc are going at an incredible speed. What should have taken 3 years has taken just over 12 months. With SolG it is the opposite. The rewards are greater in that it is 85% ownership but there is a compromise for that. I am in no rush here and was fortunate my small inv of 100k shares came after the fund raise at 21p however I would still prefer not to have to wait years and years. A smaller return but sooner is fine by me. GLA MFU
Agreed Colonel, in fact from last nights webinar there were way more positives than negatives
Valuefinder, I am not sure it will drop much, certainly the market makers will try but only a few will sell it they don't want regionals and can't wait a bit. Good luck though :) a quick drop to 23p..
For CGP this is bad news, they have a frothy share price, if they reject solg, and the PFS is delayed then God help their share price, particularly as they don't have a porvenir to help save them.