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Pretty sure Cornerstone owned a bit of Sunstone Metals. This means Solgold will benefit from this news.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/1010514/sunstone-metals-says-new-limon-drill-results-could-be-game-changer-for-bramaderos-1010514.html
These debates are purely abstract for the time being, though, and the presence of Wyloo means that it’s more likely now that they will remain so as the mine goes into production. After all, Greatland’s current share price remains a shadow of its former 37p high, since even after the recent bump, it’s still trading at below 10p.
And even broker Canaccord Genuity (TSX:CF, LSE:CF), a supporter, doesn’t reckon it’s going quite back to its former levels. Instead, the broker set a target following the news of the funding and board appointments of 25p, more than two and a half times where it is now, and a valuation, which, if borne out, would take Greatland’s market capitalisation back towards the £1bn mark.
Such a valuation may now be justified given that Havieron looks to be headed towards production with Greatland likely to retain its 30% ownership all the way. But there remains execution risk, and the significant factor that when all’s said and done the ball remains largely in Newcrest’s court.
There may well be significant moves towards a re-rating in the coming months, but nothing like the spectacular rise that shareholders saw at the end of 2020 is likely to be repeated.
And there remains, too, the question of the longer term.
What will Greatland look like in the future?
Will it continue to be an exploration play, working up its other claims in the Paterson Range? Or will it instead simply become a cash cow, focussed primarily on deriving its value from the sizeable dividends that will shortly start to come rolling in from the Havieron operation?
Time will tell if the big company mentality makes itself felt. For now, Greatland remains the beacon for all smaller companies to set their navigation lights by – representing as it does the transformation of dusty ground into hundreds of millions of dollars worth of gold and opportunity.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/992431/greatland-gold-shows-how-holding-firm-in-the-face-of-pressure-from-the-big-boys-can-create-significant-long-term-value-992431.html
A few years ago, Greatland Gold PLC (AIM:GGP, OTC:GRLGF) was just another penny stock with licences over some dusty ground in Australia. Companies like that come and go on the world’s stock exchanges all the time, diluting shareholders down to crumbs and then consolidating their shares and starting all over again.
But Greatland Gold proved to be the exception that proved the rule.
In the London market, only one other company, Solgold, has come close to what Greatland has achieved - making a major discovery and then keeping hold of a significant portion of it as the big money comes in to move it forward into production.
Solgold had Cascabel in Ecuador and Greatland has Havieron.
Both companies made early backers overnight millionaires when the extent of their discoveries became apparent, and both companies have subsequently been on a rollercoaster ride in terms of share price as the market struggles to come to terms with what such huge discoveries are really worth when held by smaller companies that are trying to punch above their weight.
Cascabel became the subject of a tug of war between two major mining companies, and some of the intricacies of that fight went on to damage sentiment.
But in the case of Havieron, it’s been more straightforward.
Those who came later to the party are now underwater as the share price has dropped away from the heights it reached last year.
But the recent news of a financing package that will allow Greatland to fully fund its 30% share of the development costs at Haviernon did boost the share price by more than 10%. Concurrently, new board members were announced, including as non-executive chairman Mark Barnaba, who is the current deputy chairman of Fortescue Minerals, a A$50bn company.
Greatland has hit the big time, and the big hitters are accordingly coming in to meet it.
Serial small-cap non-executive Alex Borelli, who was chairman, will remain on the board as “London representative.”
And so Greatland survives the threat of extinction by a major, and lives to fight another day. The arrival of a serious mining investment vehicle on the register in the shape of Wyloo Metals adds strength in depth to any potential defence in the face of a hostile advance from Havieron’s now-majority owner Newcrest.
Newcrest and Greatland have always seemed to get along reasonably well in public, even if Newcrest has at times appeared to downplay the dollar value of Havieron to suit its own ends. The thinking has been that a reduced Greatland price would suit Newcrest very well, and allow it to come in and make a bid at what initially would appear to be a nice premium, but which in fact would be a significant discount on the real value of Havieron.
Dave,
Looking at the mining discovery lifecycle below (link) , one could say we're in the orphan stage.
I would like to hope that we continuing this journey to the next turning point reaching full potential.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/
My guess is that:
- As to why Solgold have not provided any formal announcement updates, it is probably because there is nothing to report. EG Confidential negotiations are still pending with no firm outcome.
- Funding is not an issue as NCM (and presumably BHP) is still willing to invest, but via a share issuance .
- Funding via non-share issuance is still possible (eg Franco), but Solgold decided to pay ball with the majors, for now... perhaps this a was poker play to push for a formal bid?
- As a show of good faith to the majors, Solgold have made the recent HR changes. This will allow key parties to work out terms of agreement
- The majors will be hesitant to pull the trigger on a bid on its own as it will kick off a bidding war. So I'm leaning towards the joint bid rumours.
- Due to depressed metal prices, the major may want to put in a bid soon.
- Due to reports of cash in the bank, Solgold would probably also push for Oct/Nov before pulling the trigger on plan B or C funding options. Solgold would have communicated their fair and reasonable timing expectations to the majors. Eg If Solgold has no other choice (bids) then they will have to seek non-share issuances funding options.
- Don't think any major shareholders have sold with the recent price movements due to spooked retail investors and low liquidity. I think once a bid comes in, it could move the share price more than the typical 30% premium for acquisitions. Looking at historical charts with highs of 46 pence (in 2017), if I add 30% to that, I'll place a personal target price close to 60 pence.
This is just layman's opinion only.
Thoughts/feedback?
Newcrest is the second-biggest shareholder in London listed SolGold, which is developing a prospective copper and gold project in Ecuador.
SolGold aborted an attempt to raise funds over the past month leading to the exit of chief financial officer Ayten Saridas after just 45 days in the job.
Newcrest and SolGold’s biggest shareholder, BHP, have traditionally wanted the pre-revenue company to raise cash through share issuance, but the previous management of SolGold defied their requests and instead opted for high-cost debt.
Mr Biswas reiterated on Friday that he was disappointed by that decision and expected it would not happen again.
“At that time there was also a public announcement by the company that that was a one-off and that future raisings would be more along the lines of allowing existing shareholders to be part of the fundraising activity in relation to an equity raise,” he said.
But Mr Biswas said SolGold had again sought to raise funds through methods other than share issuance over the past month.
’They chose not to do that, they went back to what happened last year and we...did not support that proposal,” he said.
Mr Biswas said he was also keen for the Papua New Guinea government to help Newcrest and Harmony Gold push ahead with the long-stalled Wafi-Golpu project.
Newcrest shareholders will receive a US20¢ final dividend, taking total dividends for the year to US27.5¢.
Barrenjoey analyst Dan Morgan predicted that Newcrest shares could rise during Friday’s trading session based on the better-than-expected profit, the solid production guidance for the year ahead and clarification from Newcrest that the Cadia mine had resumed after a recent disruption.
“Newcrest share price has underperformed peers on Cadia outage risk and a lack of FY23 [financial year 2023] guidance. We think this result could spark a relief rally,” he said in a note published shortly before Friday’s trading session.
Newcrest said on Friday that Mr Biswas’ total remuneration for the past year was $US6.22 million including bonuses, with $US1.74 million of that being fixed remuneration.
Newcrest said Mr Biswas’ fixed remuneration would rise by 2.9 per cent after October 1 as a result of a “benchmarking” process.
While Newcrest said the decision was based on price, it may also be an important tactical move designed to avoid a price discovery event for Greatland Gold, which many observers believe is a logical takeover target for Newcrest.
Had Newcrest agreed to pay $US60 million for the extra 5 per cent stake in Havieron, it would have put an implied $US300 million value on Greatland’s 25 per cent stake in Havieron.
Greatland’s market capitalisation was as low as $US466 million in early July before the independent valuer handed down its verdict; aside from Havieron, Greatland has several other copper and gold targets in the province around the Telfer mine.
Newcrest has acquired stakes in some of Greatland’s other projects around Telfer and Havieron, suggesting Australia’s biggest gold miner sees value in Greatland above and beyond its stake in Havieron.
Greatland’s market capitalisation rose after the independent valuer’s verdict was published and was $US549 million at the close of Thursday’s trading session in London.
Newcrest’s decision not to take up the option to buy the extra 5 per cent effectively undermines the valuation boost Greatland received after the independent valuer put the implied $US1.2 billion price tag on the Havieron project.
Mr Biswas said on Friday that Havieron was not the only option to extend Telfer’s life; Newcrest was also studying options to extend the life of the existing open pit at Telfer.
Paywall: Cagey Newcrest Baulks at Havieron Gold Price Tag
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/cagey-newcrest-baulks-at-havieron-gold-price-tag-20220819-p5bb5b
Extract Australia’s biggest gold miner will snap a three-year streak of declining gold production and has surprised expectations by declining an option to buy more of Western Australia’s Havieron gold project.
Newcrest Mining vowed to raise gold production by at least 8 per cent to between 2.1 million and 2.4 million ounces of gold in the year ahead after announcing a $US872 million full-year profit.
The profit was better than the $US845 million analyst consensus published by Bloomberg but 25 per cent lower than last year on the back of lower gold production.
Newcrest has been spending heavily on growth options over the past four years to offset the fact its flagship Cadia mine in NSW has passed its peak in terms of gold production volumes.
The increased guidance for the year ahead is largely because of the recent $US2.8 billion acquisition of Canada’s Brucejack mine.
Although Brucejack has given Newcrest an immediate injection of extra gold production, the Havieron gold project in WA looms as a crucial medium-term growth project because without it Newcrest’s nearby Telfer mine would likely need to shut.
Havieron was discovered by London-listed Greatland Gold and Newcrest has acquired a 70 per cent stake in Havieron over recent years by spending $US65 million and completing a detailed feasibility study on the project.
The agreement between Greatland and Newcrest gave the latter the right to buy an extra 5 per cent of the Havieron project last month at a price to be determined by an independent valuer.
The valuer put a $US60 million price tag on that extra 5 per cent stake, giving Havieron a notional value of $US1.2 billion.
Newcrest is rapidly developing growth options to avoid a decline in its gold output by the middle of this decade.
Despite Newcrest’s strong balance sheet – it has a gearing ratio below 11 per cent and an investment grade credit rating – the company said on Friday it would not buy the 5 per cent stake at the price determined by the independent valuer.
“We’re happy with our 70 per cent stake,” said Newcrest chief executive Sandeep Biswas on Friday.
Mr Biswas said the price published by the valuer did not meet Newcrest’s investment hurdles.
“We didn’t think it would deliver the sort of returns and the sort of thinking our shareholders would expect from an owners’ mindset,” he said.
“We have got a lot of projects to allocate capital to and we have got our shareholders to think about too.”
Although he's just recently joined the board, he certainly looks qualified to take over Nick.
Keith reach out to your Rio mates!
Solgold Website:
Mr Keith Marshall is based in the UK and has over 40 years’ experience in the mining sector and has worked on significant underground mines around the world. During the last fifteen years with Rio Tinto, Keith held senior mine leadership roles (General Manager and above). Keith’s last two operational roles with Rio Tinto were as Managing Director of the Palabora Mining Company in South Africa (during its successful transition to block caving) and three years as president of the Oyu Tolgoi Project in Mongolia.
Keith’s underground block cave mining experiences will provide SolGold with extensive knowledge and guidance for the development of the Alpala Project. Keith’s diverse technical and executive level operational leadership experiences broadens the Company’s skill base, and will play a key role in advising on strategic development decisions.
AngHol -
Mining can be incestuous. There are many precedents of JV among majors. In addition to Oyu Tolgoi, other examples include:
- Samarco (BHP/Vale)
- Cerrejon (BHP/Glencore/Anglo American)
- Wafi Golpu (Newcrest/Harmony)
- Fort de Norte (Newcrest/Lundin)
A major may want to buy the lot, but Solgold needs to agree. So far Solgold has pushed back pretty hard Eg. standstill agreement, tempting both both BHP/Newcrest onboard, Citi Bank to build up defenses against low ball bids, Franco funding deal, potential deals with offtake companies etc.
The reason why Major will still do a JV with a "competitor" includes but not limited to:
- All gold majors have declining gold reserves. This is a major concerns for Majors. They only way they can grow is to acquire, merger or to discover more resources. The thing is, the majors don't explore as they use to. Exploration by nature is a hit and miss and is too risky and expensive from the eyes of their shareholders. Majors prefers low cost farm in agreements instead. But Solgold is playing hard to get as it as resources(s) that may include one or more tier 1 assets.
- There is limited discoveries over the past few years. Tier 1 assets are the unicorns of the mining industry. Very few discoveries are like Solgold with one or more tier 1 assets (high reserves / high life / low cost).
- Commodity prices are going up. Forecast for copper demand is quite high. Eg China booming commodity, electrification of cars and Internet of Things etc
To summarise, there is enough for everyone.
See quote from Newcrest CEO:
"If Cascabel develops to the extent we would all like it to, it is going to be a big mine which [requires] a lot of investment capex and what have you, so in relation to developing a mine in the future, there is no question that there can be more than one company accommodated in terms of that development," Paywall Source:
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/newcrest-ceo-sandeep-biswas-hopes-solgold-big-enough-for-both-of-us-20181026-h175a0
Happy for the majors to bid for all of Solgold at the right price, but I rather farm out ENSA co-funded or fully-funded by a major and get a share of the proceeds. Much lower risk than going alone. Rio Tinto Oyu Tolgoi is a good example of this.
The deal may involve Solgold raising some capital to co-fund it. This would be easy if a JV deal with a major was announced beforehand, conditional on Solgold raising the funds. I've seen similar (non-mining) deals like this and the shares of the minnow shot up as the path way to growth was mapped out and funding would be less riskier if a major backs the project.
If this happens, it allows Solgold to continue to prove up its other sites (look how long it took for Alpala to reach PFS). The Alpala JV will provide Solgold with cash to then potentially fund the development of Solgold other sites, enabling it to become a major in its on right.
Dreamboatwarrior -
No doubt the majors would look at buying the lot, but would Nick sell it so low? What is fair value?
I'm making the assumption based on the fact that the majors are still waiting forever for Alpala's PFS to make a serious takeover bid (Its no coincidence, that BHP's stand still period is timed around the PFS). So they would probably want further studies on the assets if they were to offer a price for the lot.
I'm not fussed either way...
casapinos -Some JV examples include:
- Harmony Gold / Newcrest.
- Lundin / Newcrest
So its possible. For Solgold to negotiate, they major must want the resources (they do) and that there is a possibility Solgold may be able to fund it via offtakes agreements and other etc (its underway).
In my opinion, with the other assets not yet proven it would be difficult to value and sell Solgold as a whole.
I would pursue a hybrid model: Sell out Alpala only and pursue production of other assets. Via a farm in agreement of some sort, I would let a Major fund the majority of the Alpala mine construction , while keeping all the other assets.
This would help manage risk, create shareholder value and CASH.
After constructing the Alpala mine and generating cashflow, hopefully by then Solgold would have proven the other assets (Povenir, Blanca etc). Solgold would have enough cash of its own to fund and mine another asset all by itself.
The shares will appreciate in the short, medium and long term. Everyone wins. Including the majors (Eg what stops Newcrest from having a JV on Alpala and BHP with Povernir?)
@Andywest, examples of block caving - See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFVUqy3a6WQ
I've been down one before, absolutely amazing.
Is the CGP offer now close to a 27% to 30% premium? If so, I think they would accept.
Not sure, but I assume the antidilution clause will mean Newcrest and BHP would need to tip in more cash to maintain what they have?