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Always struck by the abundance of horse guano surrounding MARS . These chat forums are a great source of info from the people with the inside track from "secret" reports and their mate down the pub.
I think things will work out fine from here. I have no particular insight beyond the basic - if there is going to be a recession buy beer, fags and carbohydrates. 45p is low for this stock on a 2-3 year view, even against the sector, which is oversold.
I have added a few times as we have lurked in the low 40s. If we do hit 41p , it will be disappointing, but I fully expect to be well ahead come this time next year.
Trent as stated many times we have RF to blame for the mess the company finds it self in. Not sure Andreas is up to the monumental task of turning MARS around. There are too many uncontrolled and controlable issues facing Marstons.
40p may well be on the cards, which then puts the company into Predator zone.
Either way it show market consolidation, as such still looking at 41 as an entry point for the next 2 months
So do you think they are trying to sell all the branches to one company in one go, otherwise it could take 6 months+ to sell off the odd one here and there.
I wonder if they are already in talks with someone.
Maybe they should have looked harder at whether the Brains deal was worth the bother to be fair.
That said, Marstons are my smallest holding now to be fair, so I'm not really too worried.
Pub group Marston's has confirmed it is considering selling a number of pubs across its estate which "no longer satisfy" its core strategy.
The company currently operates approximately 1,482 pubs across the UK and employs around 12,000 people.
Propel reported this week that around 50 Marston's pubs spread across England and Wales had been put on the market.
A Marston's spokesperson said: "As you would expect, we review our estate from time to time as part of normal course of business.
"We are potentially looking to dispose of a small package of non-core pubs which no longer satisfy our pub strategy.
"In the event of a successful transaction, any disposal proceeds raised will be used to further reduce the Company's debt in line with our stated strategy. A further announcement will be made as appropriate."
https://thecaterer.com/news/marston%27s-mulls-pub-sale-reduce-debt
It is just a struggle at the moment to make a reasonable ROCE return on the finance costs of having those borrowings , despite trying to squeeze the increasing operating costs , and despite the quality assets obtained from those borrowings
Good decision to sell non-core pubs , but not likely to get best price at present .... c.43p for a Marston share or a Restaurant Group share ...both with good assets struggling with the cost inflation and customer disposal income situation , both trying desperately to squeeze costs out of their businesses .... suppliers in the sector under pressure to pay higher wages too and avoid strikes ....all round it is difficult to keep a tap on the costs and prices
Having a chaotic government doesn't help either
Serious headwinds are facing the whole Hospitality Sector. MAB is marginally better placed than MARS, simply because they were wise and raised funds a year ago, MARS just negotiated Loan Waivers, which could be a real issue at present now Interest rates are inreasing. PNB Paribas, who have taken over the waivers from HSBC, may not be so accomodating.
Have been away on Business, have I missed something, sale of Pubs?
As a point of interest, stayed at a Motel, similar to Marstons, was surpised to discover this Motel had ceased serving food and drink( Bar closed and Restruant closed). ASking the manager, is it staffing issues ? NO the closure is permenant, the Motel is losing money on meals and drink.
This is a sign of the times and does not augur well for financial health of many Hospitality businesses.
The reason see "share news" above. Wetherspoons and M&B too!
Another car crash day here.. has the news of selling 50 pubs caused this 7% drop ? Surely not..
No need to read reports JH, the sp charts of hospitality companies of the past 12 months will tell you the markets think things look dire. A Good management team and initiative will help most get out of trouble. Sadly we’re really lacking in those areas.. with a large debt. With the sp where it is, and unfortunately lower to come, the markets punish us more for it.
The difference is I was shown a report by a major fund on alcohol retail and pub sales for the past 2 months, and projected revenue. It looks very dire.
Jon
I am confused, yesterday you were a "strong buy", today you are a "strong sell", yesterday Mars were going to benefit from staycations & today, with the market up 2% you are now predicting a 15% fall, or "nose dive".
Or am I missing something ?
Looks like this is going to nose dive, 41 is now the target
Said Javid & Rishi Sinak have just thrown their tickets in. The Markets are going into serious meltdown tomorrow, isn't it.
k
Looks like Europe going back into lockdown, as such that means Marstons will generate more revenue will the people staying in the UK to holiday.
My sense of humour gets me into a lot of trouble. I hope The Devil goes easy on me, coz I think I'm going to Hell when my number's up.
Lol. It had a freezer full of food available to it. How hard could it have been? Pml
So it's your fault, why didn't you get your neighbours to call in and feed it while you were away.
@Barchid. Ain't that the truth.
@Jedclampit. Cheers mate. The only reason I ask is that I put a chicken in our freezer at the end of May before we went on holiday, anyway I came to get it out this morning and the damn thing is dead! Who knew that would happen. :-)
Apologies, I misread a statement.
They are in line to have reduced debt to below £1b by 2025. Which now's days means manageable debt considering the size of the company and revenue.
Either way. £300m to buy this company is good value.
The trouble is still the Net debt which I think will hold this back.
Net Debt (excluding lease liabilities) at 2 April 2022 of £1,246.5 million is £14.2 million higher than last year (FY2021: £1,232.3 million) reflecting the net outflow of £22 million for the one-off payments outlined in the Preliminary Results Presentation in November 2021 relating to deferred duty/VAT and the CMBC contingent consideration. Lease liabilities as at 2 April 2022 were £373.2 million, an increase of £1.6 million on last year (FY2021: £371.6 million)
Jon
I admire your bullishness but I am intrigued to know why you think that their debt mountain can be cleared in about 3 years ?
Trent
That is a perfect example of the stupidity which is over running us these days.
A few years ago I'd have assumed that you were just joking but sadly these days the jokes all seem to be on us !
Marstons own 40% of Carlsberg Marstons Brewing Company, that stake is worth about £200m alone.
There has been a decrease in pubs in the UK, this consolidates the market into Marstons favour.
They have decreased debt, and looks like they will be clear around 2025.
The current COVID and inflation situation is at its worst and knocked the market, however post summer this will start to resolve as the central banks will pump the market with more money for lending to drive the economies.
This is now primed for another takeover bid, as £300m to pick up the Marstons estate and their stake in Carlsberg Marstons is very very cheap.