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Started: Supercharger, 17 Jun 2024 11:27
Last post: fairdealer20, Today 06:57
Wigwammer you are trying your hardest to be contraversial and offensive. These boards are for exchange of views which readers can note or dismiss. Have seen to many self appointed experts who have an agenda, I have retired from the beverage Industry so can claim to know a little.
Try to moderate your tone, we can then have reasonable exchanges which may be disagreeable. That is the nature of free speech. Take it or leave it.
It is up to every Investor to carry out proper research of any company that is of interest.
Well for all you novice and gullible posters out there, count yourselves lucky to have fairdealer here spelling it all out for you. For the rest of us, would be useful to get some alternative insight from industry insiders about the current state of play. Has to be better than being vociferously told on repeat what we already know… ATB
I do not agree, some are gullible and fail to recognise truth. Those individuals many novice investors need to be aware of the risks and undertake proper research of any company in which they invest..
Every reader are at liberty to accept or reject what is posted here, but should always DYOR.
Hmm.. I think the issue is that NOBODY here has difficulty with the truth. We ALL know Marstons has big debts. If you believe this is news to people, I suspect you have a tendency to rather underestimate others… ATB
" Why on earth would you say this once, let alone repeat it again and again?", because novice investors and those with memory problems need reminding to protect their hard earned cash.
There is an Expert here who seems to have dificulty with the truth. Whilst in a period of purdah the BOE will not change interest rates until the Election is over.
The company is selling down assets to achieve debt reduction required by Funders. Some believe debt stands at just over £1billion whereas the true total current debt is just over £1.5billion. Just read the last published accounts.
Started: Supercharger, 18 Jun 2024 17:15
Last post: Supercharger, 18 Jun 2024 17:15
I.e. Buys were going through just before 4.30 close and then we have the uncrossed trade entry pulling us back down again. I see an opportunity here again especially when we have the B.O.E. Meeting later in the week. I have feeling we could see a 1/4 point reduction very soon. Inflation numbers we can only hope will support this move as we return to 2%? Fingers crossed! GLA.
Started: Graviton, 18 Jun 2024 16:38
Last post: Graviton, 18 Jun 2024 16:38
Odd sudden price drop today. Weird. Perhaps Coltrane still reducing ?
Started: Supercharger, 18 Jun 2024 12:45
Last post: Supercharger, 18 Jun 2024 12:45
another 19 sold which makes 26 recently out to ipswich based red oak. seems the marston plan is working!
also sees red oak is making the most of a sector coming back, and with whitbread also reporting a strong recover for the uk sector is underway.
by the way here are some of the marston's pubs offering a 75" tv for euro 24 fans. seems like they are well organised to entertain/ help fans enjoy the event! fans can reserve a spot for the action via their websites include:
albrighton: old bush inn, high street.
bilston: bankfield inn, bankfield road.
bridgnorth: crown, high street.
brierley hill: tenth lock, delph road.
cannock area: trafalgar, littleworth road, hednesford; samson blewitt, rosehill, hednesford and chase, hagley road, rugeley.
kingswinford area: swan, stream road and horse and jockey, high street, wall heath.
kidderminster: viaduct tavern and railway bell, comberton hill.
oswestry: cross foxes, gobowen.
shrewsbury: beeches, lythwood road, bayston hill. boars head, belle vue road; bulls head, castle gates; pea**** inn, wenlock road; inn on the green, bank farm road and hop and friar, st juliens friars.
stafford: holmcroft, holmcroft road.
stourbridge area: station inn, hagley; the fox, green lane, lye and cross, oldswinford.
stourport: astley cross inn, areley common; brinton arms, bewdley road; rising sun inn, lombard street and kings arms, redhouse road.
telford: three crowns, dawley; albion inn, st georges; barley mow, court street, madeley and queens head, king street, dawley.
tipton: old bush, factory road and gospel oak, bilston road.
walsall: queens, norton road, pelsall.
wheaton aston: hartley arms, long street and coach and horses, long street.
whitchurch: old eagles, watergate street.
willenhall: crown inn, cheapside.
wolverhampton: castle inn, wednesfield; merry boys inn, moseley village; claregate, codsall road; gunmakers arms, bradmore; golden lion, cannock road and dog and partridge, high street, wednesfield.
Started: Supercharger, 30 May 2024 13:01
Last post: Supercharger, 13 Jun 2024 14:00
Uncle D -yes the sector is coming back and so one could invest in both or spread the risk. With the Euro's coming up from Friday Marston have already said they expect sales to increase and it will be a good summer! Everyone does have a choice as you say. Thanks for pointing out the sector is growing (which we can see) and no doubt Marston will already have in place the large screen Tv's etc. Let's hope we can all enjoy it! GLA.
I’d elect to invest in Fuller’s FSTA.L
EXCELLENT RESULTS POSTED TODAY.
Well we know Rishi does not drink Alcohol but also Beer Korma probably does. Looking forward to seeing him in a local Marstons pub near you! GLA.
Started: Supercharger, 24 May 2024 16:29
Last post: sammacleod, 29 May 2024 08:16
Overly pessimistic I suspect, but you never know.
Off on hols to avoid the non stop election drivel.
Limit buy orders set at 32, 31 and 30 just in case to bring carrying average down further.
I have been fortunate to trade my carrying price down over the last few cycles so I do believe this will come good in the long run albeit with b/e for me now a lot lower than last year.
Annoying that in the mean time this looks like it is slowly heading to it usual 29p - 31p tranche - there again, what should we expect from this lot…
Maybe Rishi is already aware rates are coming down this will help everyone!? BOE have let out the signals for this too?
Like an old tin of Quality streets -made for sharing. Just like Mitchells and Butlers sales and Stonebridge's too where the Marston brewery has 10 year supply contracts in place. Looks like sales are growing and loan rates are reducing!
Started: Supercharger, 28 May 2024 16:10
Last post: Supercharger, 28 May 2024 16:10
To be honest thought Labour voters also liked a pint especially in the midlands, Yorkshire Dales, and Welsh old mining community areas where Marston is based.
Maybe therefore as Marstons are community based rather than town based the Conservative wine bars in towns may take more of a hit? Shame the short term small investment day traders are selling but it gives us longer term investors an opportunity to pick some more up at a great price. Everyone to their own. ATB , GLA.
Started: Supercharger, 22 May 2024 13:02
Last post: Uncle_Doug, 24 May 2024 08:04
Yes the competitors are doing so much better. Rejoice! UK retail figures for April were a disaster due to poor weather. Not good for pubs with massive debt.
Yes Marston brewery have a 10 year contract with Stonegate Group it is good that "Mitchells and Butlers" have have announced excellent results for the sector, especially considering the relationship Stonegate have with them who have acquired over 333 of their Pubs notified since 2010. T
Started: sammacleod, 23 May 2024 08:33
Last post: pedro61, 23 May 2024 14:19
This is a sunny weather share,when the sun shines watch this share.Forecasters are expecting extreme heat over many weeks.Got to be good
Nice run over last few weeks.
Taken a bit more off the table this week, sold most of my April purchases now and feel better about exposure. Still got double what I think of as my core holding but good to see break even price within hailing distance.
Started: MaryBr190, 20 May 2024 12:51
Last post: wolfwatch, 22 May 2024 10:44
Should do really in view of MAB results… but this is Marstons.
We having a 40p party today :)
That was a great link, it made my morning, nice one !
GET SOME TODAY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AE9zAummq7Q
Started: Graviton, 22 May 2024 09:44
Last post: Graviton, 22 May 2024 09:44
Comment on MAB results...
‘’Analysts at JPMorgan said the company's positive commentary on the resiliency of like-for-like sales and abating cost inflation is "encouraging and should bode positively for the broader UK pubs sector".’’
Started: Supercharger, 16 May 2024 23:21
Last post: Supercharger, 16 May 2024 23:21
Mine (the largest in Europe) has just done this and the market broker ticker/arrow has been moved from mid range to strong buy. Only one of the brokers asked said sell, all the rest have said buy or a larger proportion strong buy. One was neutral. Glad they have now come around to my thinking and this will be a good year for Marston as they come back.
In fact they are playing down their results as they could have re-invested their new found profits at a higher interest rate that the loan rate they pay, and earned a higher margin from bank interest which is above their loans rate commitments, and waited until loan rates are lower to pay them off at a faster and lower rate. However they have been sensible and are using excess profits above their commitments to reduce the total loans now, which is sensible in the longer term as they now have surplus profits to do so, and will pay less tax on profits which are reducing loans. Clever Hobgoblins aren't they! The fact that the loan rate is a lot less than what most pay also shows the faith the lenders have in them! GLA.
Started: GeeMoney, 15 May 2024 12:26
Last post: GeeMoney, 16 May 2024 09:11
Precisely Pedro, the improvement in performance is evident for all to see. The new CEO's words were also comforting. I think Marston's go on to strength from here, with customers shunning city centres and late night venues, the inherent human need to socialise will be met by Marston's suburban estate of pubs and they are also best placed to take advantage of the summer weather with their superior beer gardens!
While the current situation may not be immediately rewarding for shareholders, the recently agreed extension provides ample time to pursue a larger refinancing opportunity. Property valuations, handled by Christies, are likely to align with improved performance. Although organic debt reduction may seem slow, the target to reduce it to under £1bn by 2026 remains on track, with options to dispose of the JV stake and the additional £6m saved from pension contributions contributing to debt reduction. It's important to note that total liabilities have decreased, and the covenant breach was a technicality given the unrealistic liquidity covenants post-pandemic.
I understand your familiarity with Marston's, and it's clear that it's a robust business with stable revenues and a strong asset base. Patience may be key as the cost of living crisis eases and demand for hospitality and socializing returns.
It seems that your investment strategy may benefit from reassessment, especially considering your consistent negativity towards this stock, which suggests you may have an average hold exceeding the current share price.
Wishing you the best of luck!
This has a long way to catch...but...catching up is now evident everyday....Investors looking forward to less interest payments and increase in trade from customers more able and willing to spend their increased disposable income....Interest rate cuts are a massive boon to this company.....It is lovely to see the market realising the change in circumstances...
Marstons may have a higher margin at 12.3% than Wetherspoons, however making a profit at a higher margin which is then absorbed by Finance costs is hardly rewarding Shareholders.
Property valuations are physically undertaken on a 1/3 of properties on a rolling basis every 3 years. They are undertaken now by RICS qualified Surveyors. Previously valuations were desk-top exercises( in Ralph Findlay's time), they were found to be overvalueing, consequently back-dated amendments were made. The values quoted now are used within the Capital Account. so hardly disputable at this moment in time.
Debt reduction as I stated is woefully slow and will take years to acheive the target set.
Short=term liabilites have increased signifcantly which only adds to the overall debt burden. Shuffling debt from one pocket to another may decieve, but it is the Total Liability that matters
If you know anything about the funding history of Marstons, an extension of existing Banking facilties should make you nervious. Are you aware Marstons previously breached Funding Covenants not just once but twice.
Rather than giving Lectures to those who have knowledge suggest you conduct fuller and better research and show a little more respect.
Good luck with your Investing strategy.
Fairdealer, you're quite off the mark:
- Spoons have higher sales but operate on a 5% margin, so it's a very different model.
- The property valuations are based on profit multiples and are expected to happen in July, likely reflecting improved year-over-year performance.
- Debt has decreased by £25m in H1, with only £10m of the £50m disposals target achieved so far.
- Short-term borrowings increased due to less than 1 year on the banking facilities, but they've been extended by another 18 months.
- Pension contributions of £6m per year will fall away at the end of the FY, contributing to debt reduction.
I'd suggest brushing up on your facts if I were you.
Started: longtimeinvestor, 15 May 2024 16:26
Last post: Graviton, 15 May 2024 18:09
Stonking Britvic results must be a good sign?
A pint of best & an orange juice for the designated lady.
Is firmly UP
Started: SHAPERITE, 15 May 2024 09:48
Last post: pedro61, 15 May 2024 11:05
SHAPERITE. I am sorry to hear your experiences in the past,but I am not interested in the past or historical grievances. Investing is about the future .If the future starts to look brighter then that is the time to invest,regardless of historical problems. In fact historical problems can depress a share,to the benefit of those who look to the future and see good things.This is such a case,look beyond the past and see falling interest rates,which have a dual benefit for MARs. Less interest to pay and more consumer spending going forward.
Pedro , Thank you for your enlightened comments upon my investing position but my beef is not with the product or the share but is firmly aimed at an incompetant B.O.D who endorsed the ridiculous expansion on borrowed finance saving a group that was going bust anyway !!! And the third rate chairman who championed such action has now departed for pastures new having drawn an excellent salary in the time of the worst position that the company has been in for ages.
You and other shareholders may be happy at the gamblers call that was perpetuated with your funds, I for one am not and are prepared to say so The future should improve the position but it will be a long hard slog but I will not countenance the dreamers who constantly ramp - up a share that is in the Dog House!!!
Started: barchid, 14 May 2024 15:36
Last post: fairdealer20, 14 May 2024 19:37
Today's figures, although very welcome are not exceptional when judged against competitors. Spoons, who have set the upward trend for sector members, produced YoY sales increase of 8.3% published last week.
The Bricks and Mortar of any company ultimately provide shareholders with comfort when the going is tough. In the last year Marstons assets have declined by 3%, mainly due to property sales, which continues. NAV as similarly fallen by 3% to 95p/share.
Total debt at over £1500m remains stubbornly high. It is noted short-term borrowings ( due within 1 year) has mushroomed, Whether this is creative accountancy is not certain, it does emphasise how debt can and does shackle a company. Overall debt has reduced by 2%. This has been acheived primarily by asset sales. Unless the rate of reduction is accelerated it will take virually 17 years to reach the £1billion debt target, by which time the number of pubs will have decreased which in turn decreases income generation.
The way asset are being spent, Shareholders would be much better off to have a buy-out. The assets are just not making a return that makes sound economics.
A good summer is needed as are patrons flocking back to Beer-Houses
I have to confess to being a little surprised with todays market reaction, the stock has recently been trading like option money and after the significant holding announced this week by Coltrane, I would have thought that a modest rerating would have been in order, but it seems like last weeks punters have been unwinding today on the results.
Will Coltrane come back for more now they have seen the results is a pertinent point to watch out for, imo.
What these results do show, though, is how debt seems to be the anchor on the SP, & Findlay certainly liked stoking up the debt pile, with his fixed interest rate agreements on many of the loans he made sure that MARS missed out on the cheap money era. That man, although thankfully now history, has a lot to answer for.
Started: Supercharger, 14 May 2024 16:20
Last post: Supercharger, 14 May 2024 16:20
Price could rise and be re-rated for future earnings at this rate:-
Justin Platt, CEO said:
"A positive H1, Marston's has delivered strong like-for-like sales growth of +7.3% outperforming the market and achieving an impressive 22% uplift in pub operating profit. We have managed costs well and made further progress to reduce debt. This performance is testament to the dedication and hard work of our talented team, who constantly strive to delight our pub-loving guests."
"The outlook for H2 is encouraging. With a number of 'must not miss' major sporting events, our massively upgraded pub gardens and much-loved food menus, we expect our pubs to be very popular this summer."
Started: Supercharger, 14 May 2024 14:42
Last post: Hexam, 14 May 2024 15:35
Perhaps - but that doesn't explain your comment.
The loss before tax was indeed £1m but only after already excluding all the exceptional items. So I don't get how you translate that into double digit profits by removing one-off costs (which have already been removed) or saying if they had not reduced debt (which does not affect profit other than actually increase it slightly because of the lower interest payable for the rest of the year).
Hexam you may need to see the presentation on the "official Marstons web". i.e. H1 2024 vrs H1 2023
Revenue £428m £407m +5.2% growth
Pub operating profit £53m £43m +22.3% pub profit growth
Pub operating profit margin 12.3% 10.6% +170bps
Net finance costs £(53)m £(49)m
Income/(loss) from associates £(1)m £2m £13.8m dividend received
Loss before tax £(1)m £(4)m
Loss per share (0.1)p (0.5)p
NPV share value 91p. Still a bargain at this price of 31p with summer sales projected to be good and rate cuts coming!!
See link
www.marstonspubs.co.uk/docs/financials/2024/interim-results-presentation.pdf
Started: Supercharger, 14 May 2024 11:22
Last post: Hexam, 14 May 2024 13:08
"If they had not reduced debt or had the one off payments to Carlsberg for the Kronenberg re-branding fees, then they would have made double digit profits."
Not sure how you worked that one out? In particular how did reducing the debt adversely impact profit?
Sales up, debt down and Loans more flexible will mean once the B.O.E Reduce (expected soon) Marston will benefit more than most.
H2 will be a even better for Sales (it always is) and lots of sporting event s coming soon too.
If they had not reduced debt or had the one off payments to Carlsberg for the Kronenberg re-branding fees, then they would have made double digit profits.
Could be far worse and Sales growth will continue throughout the summer if rates reduce this share will benefit big time.
Started: SHAPERITE, 14 May 2024 12:55
Last post: pedro61, 14 May 2024 13:05
SHAPERITE. You are by your own admission a very underwater investor in this share,and super pessimist. Why are you in this share? Why not sell and invest in a company you can be an optimist in? Surely better to invest in a company you can see value in? You hark on about the past,not seeing the embedded value in the property,the change in consumers disposable income,and the pent up demand to return to leisure activities. Please stop suffering and sell up to invest in something you believe in. Believing in something is so important to successful investing....would you not say?
Once again all the optomists come to the forth with calculations of where the share price could be if only the debt were so much less than £1 billion and if only interest rates would reduce and if people start spending heavily again and we experience a blistering summer etc, etc, etc. Conversley where will we be if interest rates do not reduce, and people do not increase their spending and we have a lousy summer? Council Tax rates are still rising, Salaries are 10% higher costs still in excess of 5% increase. I Fully expect the usual tirade of nonesense from the usual suspects, yet all the daydreaming of the past 4 months is now so much garbage !!!!!
Started: wiseinvestor, 14 May 2024 12:17
Last post: wiseinvestor, 14 May 2024 12:17
I accept that the Company is making gradual progress towards the two targets of reducing net debt to £1bn and increasing turnover to £1bn. However I was hoping that the new CEO might take the opportunity in the Report of giving some detail of new initiatives to revitalise the Company and its trading performance. With new management the shareholders should be looking for (and informed of) new ideas. Without wishing to state the obvious, I hope a newly appointed Chairman is of the right calibre, capable of leading the Company onwards and upwards.
Nothing goes up in a straight line. I think this is gradually going to re rate upwards, but slow.
Debt was well over 1bn for many years when they were paying high and increasing dividends but had higher profit margins. But we had v low interest rates then.
We have to wait for lower rates to become actual before this will move too far. Overall going in the right direction business wise I believe
Sadly, it looks like "Reality" has just rode back into town.. down over 4 %, Back to the normal slide down..
Started: MaryBr190, 14 May 2024 07:04
Last post: Uncle_Doug, 14 May 2024 10:09
… and relax
"Will accelerate when interest rates drop."
But not by much. Net debt is expected to fall below £1billion by 2026 which is still an eye-watering amount especially for a company not yet back to profits and only generating modest cash now (after interest). Interest payments are around £100m p.a. so even if they reduced significantly the impact from that alone wouldn't make a particularly huge difference. So long as profitability/cash generation keeps heading in the right direction though all should be OK but it is not in a great position to deal with any setbacks.
As I said, I'm happy with my investment and am confident in the share price recovery but do not expect that recovery to be very quick or without risk. I agree, I can see the share price doubling from here (and more) but I think it will take a few years to do that - and that's ok with me (though obviously would be delighted if it was sooner)!
The reason is say debt is shockingly high....is because it is.
Hence the underwhelming response from the stock market.
I own shares in Marston's.
This beaten down stock deserves a rerate as the company is doing much better than expected by the market,and with interest rate cuts and people starting to have more disposable income,this should start to be appreciated by the market..Sentiment is about to turn for the better,in my opinion.
Looks positive for the future. Hopefully this is an end to one off impairments which have undermined statutory results. I think a level of continued investment in garden facilities etc is positive and good focus on customer satisfaction. It would be interesting to know what the future benefit will be from energy costs falling in 2025/26. Although interest rate fixes/swaps provide protection the flip side is this will presumably limit the ability to benefit if and when interest rates fall. Hopefully CMBC is going to produce a stonking contribution in the second half.
Interested to see what the new man can bring, especially when you look at the success of Hollywood Bowl in providing a family entertainment venue - surely room for some pub garden family events ?
The company should be viewed from the context of the huge assets the company holds .With interest rates about to be cut,things are turning in the companies favour. Pent up demand for leisure activity will be unleashed with consumers having much more disposable income going forwards. A rerate is on the cards,hopefully a very big rerate.
Well FY25 might easily see £100M paid off debt, so 2026 Billion targets look realistically achievable to me.
In contrast a rights issue at this price level would be complete madness and just couldn’t raise enough to make a significant difference.
Anyone wanting to launch a takeover ought to get on with it. The picture here only seems likely to improve now.
Very slow progress with debts still over £1bn and a net loss, can't really see the SP doing much apart from going down a little.
So where do they go with this very large debt pile because at this rate it will be 10 years before paid off, Maybe a cap raise at 25p ish who knows.
Good news heading in the right direction .