The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Preliminary results to Sept 23 quoted a NAV of £1.01
Cue...It's all rubbish, don't believe it, the sky is falling, the debt mountain, etc etc.
For my part. I don't know if it's £1.01 or not, but I am inclined to feel it is considerably more than 27p.
So I am a buyer. Offloaded a bit more SHEL today and bought more MARS.
Started to comment yesterday but got distracted by grandchildren.
A lot of vitriol about recently - not very becoming.
I am an eternal optimist and believe this will turn - to be honest I think the business already has. My local was rammed over Easter and seems busy even mid week. End of year sort out time - took my profit on SHEL and added more MARS (20K more this week). Probably over exposed now......mmmm.
I am ever hopeful - but then I was last year, at 35p.
Ho hum.
Have I missed something...
Anyone got a better understanding of the trades earlier this week?
I suspect that if underperforming pubs had been sold above book value that would have been trumpeted.
My expectation would be that underperforming asset would realise less value than a similar asset that was performing well. Thus I would expect disposals to be at a discount to NAV but that would be accretive to cash and reduce net debt.
Removal of underperforming assets will raise the mean performance of the remaining portfolio.
Obviously logic does not apply but MAB is horribly overvalued relative to its current performance figures while MARS is somewhat undervalued.
They can beat up weak suppliers ...eventually they will go out of business and Vistry will end up going cap in hand to more expensive stronger suppliers.
Strong suppliers will politely give Vistry supply chain a two word answer.
It doesn't matter how many times you say "partnership" if you act transactionally.
Pretty inept email tbh.
I also bought more this afternoon....although I think I am done now as I have about 3 times what I think of as my core holding.
I am at a loss as to the mechanics of this...buy trade volume is double sell trade (not sure how that works) but share price still drifts lower.
Mmmmm
Usual Martin rant.
It is curious though when comparing the relative valuations of Spoons versus Marstons. I get the soothsayer thrice woe bit about the debt position but I think it is overdone. The multiples between the two companies don't compare, revenue to mkt cap, PE etc. I think when this turns it is going to rerate pretty quickly.
Just skim read the Spoons figures. If this is a good indicator of the sectoral trading picture then the only way for this share is up.
Woo woo! And what do the seaweed and crystals say?
Maintaining sales momentum and heading into traditionally strong H2. Reducing debt and CMB delivering cash. All good.
However, not much in the way of banging of drums and ra ra ra we are on the way back.
I suspect this rather muted commentary implies something is going on in the background. May be wishful thinking, but this looks like filling the box by making the required pstatement but saying very little.
I am going to continue adding as I have done already this week.
I am with you .... had a bit of a windfall so decided to dig deeper..... ha ha. Now holding more than 3 times what I used to think of as my core holding.
At least my average holding price is lower....
I may be becoming an expert straw clutcher.
This is a bit like listening to my neighbours dogs barking at each other through the hedge. Not sure which one is the yappy spaniel or the dopey brown lab that eats everything.
On a more substantive point, I do wonder if an MBO is a developing scenario here. Although, having had recent experience of the parlous state of the UK Venture Debt market that may be an unlikely play.
I confess I would love to see 86p. I am now at about 3X what I would consider to be my core holding - I have fluctuated up and down - in the last year as share price has wombled around. Generally managed to be +ve in trading in and out which has helped . I had got back to core holding a few weeks ago and then starting adding a few, but this latest drop frustrated me to the point where I doubled down today bringing my overall carry price to mid 40s.
I see a lot of erudite comment about debt levels etc, but I tend to feel that if the P&L is covering the coupon going forward and the estate value does not collapse from here then the downside risk of "real debt" level is low. Yep, more cost push to come but with growing volumes I hope manageable.
I trust what I see outside, busy pubs, busy restaurants and a real economy where I live that looks flat out. Try and get a roofer ....good luck!!
The market reaction is perverse.
Added today - MARS will end this month well above the 35 I have just bought at.
Results are OK. Economy is nowhere near as bad as the doomsters are predicting. I had to wait to get a table at 6pm on a Tuesday evening last week for goodness sake.
For the brick chuckers - if you want to say Sales increase is only due to inflation and therefore discount it, then do the same and acknowledge that the reduction in debt in real terms is way more than the nominal £12M.
DYOR as always but I am buying again.
Mmmmm. Things must have changed since I retired. When I was working I don't think I ever met an investment fund manager with an investing horizon approaching 10 years....10 months would have been a push.
Having been there...converting options to clear income tax liability when sp is depressed is good tax sense. Taking the 45% hit low and converting upside to capital gain at 20% makes perfect sense.
One can argue about whether options should have vested - that is a different discussion.
Having been there...converting options to clear income tax liability when sp is depressed is good tax sense. Taking the 45% hit low and converting upside to capital gain at 20% makes perfect sense.
One can argue about whether options should have vested - that is a different discussion.
I'm with Nick - managed to close last week's optimistic trades on Friday while retaining my shirt but only a little ahead. Decided at that point to just stick with my core holding.
Added a modest buy today to average down but nothing silly.
Nick, in relation to your question on my £4000 @ 83.9 ...mmm still sitting on that loss..... just added 2 other trades at 80 and 78, so back to my play pot all committed. Overall carrying price after costs and this morning's realised gain just under 79. So hopefully, an uptick this pm after the overswing to downside or I will have to eat the loss.