Member Info for sammacleod

I think the future for UK imports of French Nuclear generated electricity just got more difficult.

The data centre announcement in France today by Softbank has the potential to take 5GW of French export capacity off the market in the next 5 - 10 years. That make for either a very tight and/or very expensive import market for UK going forward.

All said, has to be positive for the renewables sector in UK and should add impetus to the Grid infrastructure updates if they want to keep the lights on.

Certainly no lack of wind in April. Latest NESO figures show UK wind estate generated over 50% more in April than same period last year.

With cash payments from a bumper end to Q1 and a strong April falling in this quarter - we should see Q2 cash performance looking good.

Reform are rapidly showing themselves to be economically illiterate.

The stuff Tice comes out with is ridiculous and the markets would crash if they implemented the policies he spouts.

Where do they think they would get the Capital investment in the North Sea from if they demonstrate that all the next government has to do is flip the legislation again and put them out of business.

I am pretty confident that there is significant upside from here and limited downside. I feel that this has been an over reaction to the RNS which, although somewhat tersely worded, basically reflected guidance previously given.

Took the opportunity yesterday morning to trim a bit of my rather silly overweight position after last week's buying in a fit of pique. Now back to less than double my max holding.... 😀

As they say - if you can't be good be lucky.

With common sense back in the room I will continue to trim back to my planned max as prices grind higher...hopefully.

Nice however to be selling at above my carry price even if only marginally.

Way overdone, even allowing for Agent Orange impact on market.

Bought 2 tranches today.

This will rerate.

Toppy,

I am with you. I feel our management team have an approach where they take evey piece of external information and amplify its potential negative implications in order to deflect from their own pedestrian performance.

I wish I was that scientific Trek.

I now have more than double what should be my max holding, but I console myself that the Divi is good and at some point common sense has to prevail.

Ho hum.

Div back knocking on 11%.

Bought more today to average down .... carry price now under 100p.

Now well, well past my planned maximum holding but still less exposed than resident of No 10.

Me too.

Took a modest step to average down a bit more today. Might have a bit more later. Recycled some SHEL profits. Dividend is very attractive but I was already over my limit on UKW, so now I am only well over my limit.

Zebbo.

Per my earlier post..... just another handy deflection from other management performance issues.

First rule of naval thermodynamics.....

If the heat is on someone else, its not on you.

Among the hand wringing this morning about a 3-4% reduction in power prices years ahead it is worth reflecting on the fact that the current power price is 30%+ above the annual average and the wind estate is outputting double the amount of energy over last years April average.

The scribbles can't predict what happened yesterday, why would we think the have some amazing insight into the future.

Interesting pattern from the managers....every policy announcement or potential external negatvity seems to get "kitchen sinked". It is almost like listening to the soothesayer in Up Pompei.

I get the feeling that by bigging up how external stuff is hitting the future valuation it deflects from the general poor management of the business.

Disappointing that government is pulling back from making gas generators pay the cost of their pollution but very sensible to move away from gas setting the price for everything as the marginal producer.

Wind/solar has to be able to deliver on being a cost effective producer of electricity.

Steady on hardy!

He must be nearly back to break even........

Yup..2.30pm

Renewables and Nuclear generating 103% of UK demand.

I very much support the energy transition but Mr T's recent excursion has once again shown the absurdity and inconsistency of the UK's energy pricing regime. The constant refrain that North Sea gas is "priced by the market" is frustrating. Why can we give licences for wind generation, solar and Nuclear on the basis of pre-contracted strike, but somehow don't have the capacity to work out how to do it with gas.

Why cant we grant North Sea licences to produce on a guaranteed take -off and a CFD price. We can then direct that gas into the UK system ahead of other sources at marginal pricing. Rough storage isn't huge but it is not insignificant and should be used strategically.

Yes - push the transition faster. However, the reality is grid build out and market transition will take time and there will be a substantial need for Gas for many years. The Government needs to take Strategic Control and operate much more actively in the market in the National Interest.

In rough terms .....it looks like March wind output will be higher than 2025 and the average power price will have been 40-60% higher.

Now I know CFD contracts are capped but I can't help but feel that income is going to be well up.

With forward gas price curve steepening, one has to believe the next update on NAV is going to be up.

In time people will notice that even if it all stopped tomorrow elevated oil prices, maybe a bit lower than now but a lot higher than 1 month ago, are baked in for an extended period....LNG is even worse.

The LNG market is already structurally in deficit. The loss of the 2 LNG trains and the gas to liquid facility in Qatar will take 3 to 5 years to reinstate. That alone is 4% of world capacity for up to 5 years. Other facilities have also been damaged around the gulf and even undamaged facilities are shut in and will take months to bring back online at full rate.

Ergo....LNG demand will exceed supply for an extended period. Next winter will be tough for a lot of people. Gas prices and therfore electricity prices are going up.

Arrived in Arizona on holiday over the weekend - I appear to have been transported into a parallel universe.

They have no apparent understanding of what Agent Orange has done or the implications for their stock market or economy.

About the only guy talking any sense is Jim Cramer who is positioning for a 20 - 30% correction in the S&P.

There is a guy on TV right now saying the inflation outlook over 1, 3 and 5 years is steady... I am going for a walk shortly to watch the hogs doing aerobatics.

Well said... had a 20k punt this week with the 12 Divi locked in.

I'll save the rest for Cheltenham next week.

:-)