Member Info for sammacleod

So much to unpack in "reduced wind speeds long term" piece. For me, short term (year to year to year) variation will smooth out over time. Worth noting, for what it's worth, that the Met Office expects average wind speeds in 2025-26 to be more in line with long term averages than recent years.

The 2-3% reduction in average wind speed by 2050 in the Carbon Brief postulated as a "could happen" is well within the development and forward efficiency improvements that can reasonably expected from turbine technology......just look at the last 25 years. For example capacity factors have improved by a third in the last 10-15 years and are expected to improve further with some offshore installations expected to be into the high 40%s soon.

As UKW's assets age and get rotated out of the portfolio, I would expect replacement assets to be more efficient and designed around the expected core wind speeds expected in the decades to come.

Https://grid.iamkate.com/

and monthly stats

https://www.neso.energy/energy-101/great-britains-monthly-energy-stats

There are others but these work for me with my small brain.

Seems like only 20 posts or so ago you were telling us how you were not investing your dividends because the SP was going down?

Probably won't be a million miles off that for the whole month - figures out in a few days. My rough guess is Nov generstion will be >40% up on last year across the whole wind estate. Should be positive for UKW.

Added a few more today.

Each to their own ....I suppose.

In the same vein, I have just bought a Euromillions ticket as on this basis of analysis, I will be up £157M tomorrow.

:-)

About the oddest of your very many comments.

Why on earth would someone who purportedly invested £100ks at prices well north of the current be wishing for further falls?

I may have got this whole investment lark back to front.

Should provide another leg up if MARS makes the index at next review.

Top sliced at 59.25

Nearly back to core holding and nice to be back in the black and playing with house money.

Seems to be evidence of some stake building in recent RNS.

Would be logical as this looks way undervalued.

I have added again in expectation of an upturn.

Tough decision - catalysing a paper loss, when the rational view says the stock is undervalued.

I would never underestimate the capacity of the current government for shooting itself in both feet but I have a little hope that someone sensible will point out that the more extreme proposals bring floated act directly against macro policy objectives on net zero.

I also had a thought about what happens when one party to contract changes the law to enable it to break that contract.....Is the other party still bound? What if all the affected renewable generators withdrew from the grid pricing mechanism and set a fixed take it or leave it price?

Bit of a Pandora box, but the UK grid would get very expensive, very quickly if renewables shut down for a week or two.

And in other shocking news....

Between June and October the FTSE rose by 13%.

That is roughly a £250B rise in market cap.

Maybe sensible people took some profit off the table.

Pick your stat and run with it.

Except of course that the P50 projection used in the NAV calculation has already been rebaselined in line with the latest wind dspeed trends.

All these multi-year forward looking projections based on rearward looking data analysed by the same branch of science that can't predict accurately whether it will rain tomorrow.

In real world data - October generation was good and higher than last year and November month to date is well up on October.

Opinions of experts on the fture impact of entirely precedented climatic circumstances are just that"opinions". Remember, other experts in the same field, backed by super computers and AI models can't tell us reliably whether it will rain tomorrow.

The short and medium term direction of the share price will be driven by sentiment and seemingly emotional judgements made on the basis of lagging data.

The latest data I have found from NESO is that the UK wind generation estate produced 5% more electricity in October than in September equivalent to 19% more than October last year .... so what does that tell us. Apples and Oranges or what? The first week on Nov run rate, by the way, is way way up on October.

My gut feels is Q4 is setting out to be solidly up on 2024 in terms of generation - health warning that could change. If it pans out to be substantially up then sentiment could improve markedly with subsequent impact on share price.

This has to be a buy....surely.

I feel over exposed to this but the dividend is covered and should be maintained.

Even with staggering incompetence on display in Downing Street, this cant keep dropping ....can it?

i'm with zebbo's thoughts here. i had a look at the link - broadly similar to my back of a *** packet thoughts. the whole rpi/cpi thing was coming down the road anyway and its impact to nav in the long run will be small compared to many other assumptions factored into forward estimations.

i said earlier in the day that i felt this was a buying opportunity which i have leant into.. i have averaged down and brought my carry price to £1.13 - i would have done more but other constraints mean that was as much as i could do today.

i supect that wih the ongoing cacophony and ritual wailing that sentiment may carry the price lower in the short term but i feel that once people have looked at the underlying data and contract mix (it's in the annual report) that calmer waters will prevail and we will see the price drift back upwards.

it's not a bad business, even with the existing managers. heavy discount to assets, good cash generation and yielding 10%+ ....it has to be near the bottom of the curve.

october generation numbers should be good and november off to a good start - let's hope we don't get becalmed.

Seems to me there is a lot of noise about a consultation that has been known about for months. While a move to CPI from RPI would undoubtedly be negative, among other variables and assumptions imedded in the NAV calculation it is a second order effect. The reaction and hyperbole are over done. I personally do not find myself in the Chicken Little camp and will use this dip to average down again. Not much commentary on what looks like a well above average output for October and November setting off in similar manner.

There is certainly a lack of understanding on the value proposition. No doubt these initially went in with stretchy wind predictions that have not been achieved in recent years. That said those predictions have been modified with the subsequent revaluation on NAV. It could be argued that the current assumptions are at the conservative end of arc. September was a strong month...significantly better than 2024 and October to date is further ahead. It won't take much overperformance on cash to squeeze down gearing and push a re-rating. I am hoping for 10% -20% on share price in 2026 on top of the 10% divi.

Sensible move. Top sliced a bit myself today - sold half my 2025 37p tranche. Still got more than my overall long term core position but nice to be back in the black overall - that looked like a bit of trading mountain to climb a couple of years ago.

Hardly just scraping by. Focussing on net cash generation (cash is real - everything else is a matter of opinion in accounting terms) they are doing just fine. UK electricity demand has been falling for years - that trend will reverse in the next couple of years. A substantial amount of UK grid is serviced by imports that will similarly decline in coming years. Therefore demand for UK generated capacity will increase. Domestic prices are really not the issue for UKW, what matters is wholesale price that can be attained. A large proportion of UKW output is long term price protected by ROCs and CFDs. Worth digging below the surface on numbers a bit - it is not as negative as portrayed by many on discussion boards. 10% yield, 1.4X covered at 25% discount to NAV. I am invested to my limit.

Seemed OK to me, but what do I know.

8.6% forward Divi looks good today and significant discount to NAV. Think I will hold on.

On the bright side, I did win £20 off Mrs M - when the price dropped yesterday I bet her there would be people popping up telling us how they sold before the drop.

Any chance they might post their insights before the fact and help us poor mortals?