Member Info for sammacleod

Pretty much confirms what was expected. As a

LTH I have been averaging down for a while but have doubled down this week and got my carry price down to 100p. I think downside is limited by the well covered dividend and the discount to is NAV overdone. So there may be some recovery in SP.

I am unconvinced by the wider markets gravity defining credentials, so feel the downside here relatively constrained compared to a substantial correction in the general market. Every day I wake up thinking we are one Trumpism away from a 25% drop.

I have also been buying short dated UK Treasury Bills as an inflation hedged home for cash I have been taking out of wider market.

Lee,

They do have a lot of "green" energy.

That said, across all of 2025 the UK electricity supply was 63% zero carbon.

Solar and wind alone produced over 36% of all UK generation...so not far behind China in percentage terms.

There is a great facility where you can filter out messages. 😉

Why do people worry about recycling turbine blades. The carbon is locked in and they don't degrade and leach properly managed landfill....just bury them.

This market is illogical at the moment....worse in US but erratic all over. Definitely some very odd algorithm stuff going on. AI worries hitting logistics sector SPs for example....weird. Should only be an upside for them on costs savings etc.

Irony upon irony ....profit on SDR (bought in last May at 348) has more than covered Capital loss on my much bigger UKW holding ... so chalked that up as a win. If you can't be good be lucky, as they say.

I have started reducing risk for a while. About 20% in cash now ... a bit more to go.

I can't help but feel the whole edifice is getting s bit wobbly.

The short squeeze here is only going to get worse....

They got caned in SDR this morning too.

My other half says schadenfreude is not nice, but it feels OK to me.

NESO

Mildly optimistic that common sense will prevail.

January 26 UK wind generation >30% up on same periods 25.

February week 1 running ahead of January run rate.

We live in hope.

I don't think there is a correlation between LNG prices and UKW NAV movements. Far less established causality.

If one looks at data LNG prices remain substantially above 2021 but UKW NAV still languishes.

Other things in play here...over optimistic valuations historically, recent times have had historically low wind speeds, difficult regulatory environment as a result of Government actions and interest rates higher for much longer than expected.

I feel that these are now baked into the NAV calculations, so expect the discount to narrow somewhat.

At the end of the day NAV is primarily driven by what the market would pay for the physical assets and the discounted future cash flow.

The pendulum has gone to far to the downside...it will return soon.

I think you are correct GreyMonk.

Shock, horror pubs are quiet in January...let's face it is not a first.

A poorly phrased RNS followed by some heehaw extrapolations from the "teenage scribblers" and you get movements like this.

For those that are so inclined, I think this is a buying opportunity.

SP will be substantially higher next year on the back of solid revenue, reduced debt and effective cost control.

As always DYOR

And by .....oh tomorrow.... the effective cost to the goverment of all future renewable support contracts will go up hugely as the UK Govt will be viewed as an unreliable contract party.

Or maybe even today.

Never quite understand how the market reacts to badly written RNS.

I would imagine that things will calm down once after someone makes a better communicated statement at the AGM.

Maybe an intra day opportunity for trading types.

Days and indeed weeks and months like this month are great for UKW.

Near record wind generation even with curtailment, combined with high gas prices.

Means maximum amount of available power going to grid - all fixed price contracts operating at high volume and market priced assets getting top dollar as gas generation set

Correct Sparks.

I originally invested many years ago at 107p with what I felt was an appropriate holding for my circumstances. Through the carnage of the last few years I repeatedly averaged down and traded bounces at times feeling horribly over exposed holding several times my original holding and still underwater by a substatial amount. Through some more disciplined trading in the various gyrations since 2023 I managed to reduce my deficit and following the price recovery this year have gradually sold back to my original share holding while getting my original investment cash back and some.

Now retired for me, at my stage of life, it is a HOLD for further appreciation and the return of the dividend.

My sentiment is that the share has more to go in the medium term and for those not invested in should be a strong buy.

I think this still has upside to come even though I have sold 10k this week. Now back to my core holding in terms of shares and got all my cash back and some - so a good result even though it looked pretty dicey for a while when repeatedly doubling down.

If it can hang on around this valuation there is a good chance of inclusion in the 250.

A few notable absentees in this thread recently.

I have just been looking at wind generation in the last quarter of 2025.

The UK wind generation estate produced >20% more power in Q4 2025 versus 2024. Now some of that will be new capacity but it is a reasonable expectation that the outturn for UKW in the same period should be up on 2024 too.

Look forward to the actual figure when they are published.

Mmmm. The problem with "drill baby drill" is that the oil price - a large part of US natural gas is produced as a by product of oil production - is that the more you produce into a saturated market, the more downward pressure you put on oil prices. Good to the point where it kills investment in new production. Right now in US the current oil price does not cover the WAAC for drilling new wells. The same applies in the UK/North Sea - Reform or indeed any government can permit whatever they want but the economics have to add up for new production to get initiated....unless they incentivise (subsidize).

It all comes back to the LCOE and economics. The LCOE of new gas generation in UK in 2025 is £114/Mwh.....way more than Onshore wind and much higher than the latest Offshore builds.

Economics will trump(excuse the pun) rhetoric fr whoever is in power in Whitehall.

You are ahead of me...added some more but I have only got my carrying price down to 107.

These grid improvements are all incrementally good news in the long term. The short term nonsense is all driven by the CFD stuff and if one digs below the surface that all seems like noise, whether its Option 1, 2 or the status quo. Most people think of CFDs as subsidies, when in fact they are price stabilising mechanisms that work in both directions - there was actually a long period during the gas price spike when wind generators were actually flowing money back to the Treasury. The long term cost of generation is a known quantum - Onshore wind is cheaper than offshore wind and both are significantly cheaper than new gas generation. Anyone who thinks gas prices are going much below where they are now is dreaming. It is all about cost of capital and the expectation on an orderly market for the generated product.

I would go so far as to think that it is unlikely that new gas output would be built at scale without some form of long term goverment price stabilising mechanism (CFD) in order to make the risk capital affordable.

Ergo, the government has to have credibility in the market place, whoever is in power, in order to provide the correct context for private sector investment. If they pull the rug on existing contracts that credibility will be in the wind forever, if you excuse the pun.

I dont particularly like the ramping that goes on, but I think that we may well look back at this period and view it as an unusual buying opportunity. I wish I had more capacity.

On the other hand, I thought it was a no brainer at 125 and 115.

Ho ho ho as the bloke in red would say.

As always DYOR.

Had some TBills mature today - so averaged down again for the Divi at 10.3%

I cant believe it keeps going down much more - it just doesnt make any sense. I think this quarters revenue numbers should be good - UK wind estate generation in Nov was way up on last year.

@stockboy

Renewables a contributory factor but more likely storage levels 85% full and signicantly milder weather than normal predicted for December in Europe. Expect volatility if weather turns colder or events in UKR talks take a negative turn.