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Last post: smalleyus, 22 May 2024 16:07
Lol!
Why so angry Smalley, simply because somebody questions your motives.
Truly you are a very small person.
I have no wish for you to do any research for me, I'm happy with my own. What i would like you to do is back up the posts you make. Because i know you lie and are purely agenda driven.
The fact you won't do so speaks volumes, to me atleast
Clot,
Have you actually bothered to do any research on ANM website?
Access to the ANM website pages and information I refer to is freely available and in the public domain! It's even available to posters who have been banned from posting on LSE - yes, that means you 'tradingforgood'. So what's the problem? Do you expect me to do your research for you!
But no, you haven't have you, you haven't bothered.
Anyone that researched that information would know that April 24 figures are not available on the ANM website, and anyone who had research that information would also know exactly why they are not on the ANM website.
Don't expect me to provide you with any latest available figures.
To be honest, I doubt very much you could understand the figures?
But what I will do is give you a link to a spread sheet prepared by ANM that gives the entire available data for every mine site/mineral extraction, tonnage, taxes, revenue in the whole of Brasil that covers almost the whole of 2023, that's over 130,000 lines of data!
Oh, it's simple enough to use the filter function and find all figures for Triunfo Mineracao,,,,Ltda (for 2023)'
I really do look forward to your research!! Lol
https://anmbr-my.sharepoint.com/:x:/g/personal/alexandre_rodrigues_anm_gov_br/EeoFowITPMdIsEgh-_m9b1cB9VmNUISeanrtdBi3ECucvQ
Good Look
Nicetomichu, to refresh your memory. This is what i asked Smalley to provide the link to. I'd agree he knows a lot of detail, what he wishes to use it for is a totally different question. It seems strange that somebody won't share this information, which is exactly what boards like this are meant to be for.
The company (Harvest) does provide via electronic invoices (DANFE/boleto) individual sales invoice details to ANM for tax collection purposes.
The ANM does produce month by month tax, revenue and in some cases tonnage for all these transactions.
I hear you on the first point BFD..
I have a vague memory of Smalleyus talking about a link to a site that registers tax paid on distributed product to customer .. which is related to 'Invoiced sales'
What you asked him for I'm very hazy on and so will not go there ( I pay close attention to his posts .. less so yours.. because he's v good on the detail here)
PS: Given 'Sales Orders' and 'Invoiced Sales' are different things .. your post below feels a bit confusing to read to me.. apols if that's just me
Started: NicetoMichu, 21 May 2024 13:40
Last post: NicetoMichu, 21 May 2024 13:42
PS: Is that you dipping your toe in here Smalleyus :-)
A punchy rise..
...shows how illiquid this is ..
I see 5k gbp this lunchtime so far.. maybe another too print as i'm on delayed feed only (and 3k gbp this morning too) and MM's woken from their slumber.. but they then widen the spread plenty - further - too.. you'd think they don't want trading activity here.. when that's how they're supposed to make their money.. etc..
Started: profs, 12 May 2024 20:39
Last post: profs, 12 May 2024 20:39
Floods in brazil impacts import of fertilizer and export of commodities.
Rio Grande do Sul has been virtually cut off from the rest of Brazil with roads flooded and ports affected.
The following news brief is dated 14/07/2022
The main fertilizer receiving terminals in Brazil are in the South region, in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná; in the Southeast, in the state of São Paulo; and in the North and Northeast of the country, on the axis called Arco Norte, an important logistical corridor for agricultural commodities for the international market.
The ports of Paranaguá, São Francisco do Sul and Rio Grande, in the South region, Santos, in São Paulo (Southeast), and Itaqui, in Maranhão (Arco Norte) were responsible for 88% of the total volume of fertilizer imports. The Port of Santos, the largest port complex in Latin America, handled 10.1 million tons in 2021 against and 6.6 million in 2020, up 53%, according to Conab data. The main destination for the cargo is the Midwest region, the largest grain producing area in Brazil.
An important fertilizer destination in the southern region of Brazil, the Port of Rio Grande in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest importer of the product in Brazil, behind of only Mato Grosso. The port has been promoting the import of fertilizers via containers, with good results.
link below to article.
bodes well for fertilizer and commodity prices.
https://www.wilsonsons.com.br/en/blog/fertilizers-import/
Started: BurtonD, 2 May 2024 14:00
Last post: Troajan, 2 May 2024 15:34
The orders received in April is very impressive imho.
Obviously what's invoiced is the key indicator generally though, and the extra actually invoiced in April - on top of q1 invoicing previously notified - is uninspiring.... But my guess now is that that strong orders month in April will see both May and June have decently better invoiced sales numbers ...
Also lets not forget that the second half of year is much busier than the first for orders as a rule
So in the round I could make a pretty good case for this s/p being decently higher than 2p now.
And the tranche I sold recently - in early 2'sp - I bought back just now (in early 2'sp)
(And I was tempted to buy another tranche on top in truth.. but stopped myself because of the history here)
PS: Watch out Black Cat Burton's about :-).. but I see him as right to blow the trumpet here today, in fairness..
Ummmmm…
Looks like #HMI back on track with the fertiliser and the REE could be the huge cherry on top for @harvestminerals 🍒
“…Despite the ongoing tightness in market prospects, there are signs of improvement in the second half of the year…”
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HMI/kp-fertil-r-sales-update/16452782
Started: lbarlow, 30 Apr 2024 22:17
Last post: lbarlow, 30 Apr 2024 22:17
I think many of you here are naive concerning the agricultural and farming business in Brasil.
I have experience ,albeit in ag machinery, with this sector and I will tell you now purchase orders received,goods delivered,invoices raised mean absolutely nothing. The only real measure is invoices paid. Delay and default are common occurrences and legal action to recover bad debts can take years.
Started: profs, 22 Apr 2024 16:02
Last post: NicetoMichu, 30 Apr 2024 12:45
That previous poster - who said invoices as close as you'll get to income from sales forward viewing - was smalleyus.. and, his 'quirkiness ' included even, he's very much worth listening too imho .. (he knows an awful lot about this company/sector/region/country etc..)
You might easily be right on us not seeing 1.5p, profs.. but I'm happy to wait and see .. as we just might too.. imho :-)
I don't think we will see 1.50 or 0.7 unless there's bad news on the horizon.
HMI focus seems to be on actually getting paid now and as a previous commentator stated invoice is as close as your going to get.
yesterdays minor rise was due to the sales campaign ending today. Nearly 90k views on instagram kp fertil sales ad video and comments below the video suggest it has been a success.
update soon detailing sales order received and how much has been converted to invoice.
GLA.
While anything can happen in doggy shares like this, I get... I'd still be very surprised if this goes anywhere near .7p thru the remainder of this year, Pedro.
Indeed I'd be surprised if this goes back even close to 1p in remainder of 2024
And while I sold a bit more into yesterdays spike, to now hold a very small position here, I'd be open to adding back if this falls to 1.5p ish .. and indeed open to keeping incrementally adding if further weakness again from there too ..
I do not trust the board. Dodgy is the word. I think this would be worth looking at with better management. I will keep looking,but I think every chance of this going below 0.70p...It seems that many investors are wisely bailing out....Much further to go down,in my opinion.
That could be the silliest spread I have ever seen!
Started: profs, 15 Apr 2024 08:26
Last post: newgrange, 15 Apr 2024 10:34
Ticking up nicely
Kp fertil Sales ad for april only, viewed 20k times in 4 days.
Might be a rns start of may or mid may detailing more information. There is reasons to be optimistic regarding the company.
Started: newgrange, 15 Apr 2024 08:17
Last post: newgrange, 15 Apr 2024 08:17
Blue open
Gamblers remember the house always wins in the end
Phew, finally out at 2.65 without a loss other than dead money for a considerable time.
Thank.you all the new and renamed rampers for this gift.
This stock.will.dwell here with the only interest coming from MM's and gamblers.
Eventually it will die completely with McMasters being the only winner.
Good luck all
Started: whl2, 11 Apr 2024 11:40
Last post: Bfdinvestor, 12 Apr 2024 13:39
It's kind of a chicken and egg scenario tho nicetomichu.
The games MM's play make it well nigh impossible to be a long term investor now on AIM. There is virtually no logic in price action anymore. Too many businesses with potential get trashed, as a simple example look at SAR, the sp has dropped 90 odd percent whilst the business advanced in to a seemingly successful trial.
AIM just needs proper regulation, LSE don't manage it at all imho
Unbelievable!
Average of 4.7p, gets banned, then comes back to make a profit at 3p.
WOW!
Good Look
The problem with this company ,and it is a very big problem...is trust...A very big problem..How can you trust this company?
I think the MM's have wider and wider spreads these days to discourage short term traders AND to give themselves more of a turn within the spread.
Because short term traders dominating the market landscape - as per AIm generally these days -makes things more demanding/dangerous for MM's.. er in meeting their market making obligations in yo-yo/quickfire scenarios .. they can more readily end up with not enough stock on their book one day and too much the next ..or visa versa..etc.. and so it's a riskier game for MM's..
I'd largely agree
I did take some profit at 3p but will reinvest it in the next couple of weeks as AIM is so predictable. How can the MMs possibly justify a continuous 20% spread, it is just ridiculous. They clearly have no shares and are trying to panic sells.
It's this kind of behaviour that explains largely why AIM is now such a mistrusted market
It looks like syngenta acquired Agro Cerrado in may 2023.
460k is loose change for syngenta, alternative would be to have its accounts frozen.
it also appears agro cerrado didn't file a second apeal to the lower courts decision.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.klalaw.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Recovery-of-Trade-Debts-in-Brazil.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj-hNLdwryFAxUEWUEAHfMpAXsQFnoECBIQBg&usg=AOvVaw2UFbPa2BYwyVED8GDPPGiZ
Started: TK44, 11 Apr 2024 08:48
Last post: whl2, 11 Apr 2024 11:34
Oh boy, you really haven't a clue dear Barnabus ! It's not like eggs, you can't compare traditional fertiliser prices with the Kp product !
Using the same amount of Kp as traditional fertiliser are we Barnabus ! Good luck, or should that be good look with that crop output. Stick to your usual stocks fella and stay away from the agricultural business, its definitely not for you !
The 21% spread is ridiculous, but warranted by the MM given the potential for volatility.
And is usually a sign of a break out or possibly down.
The MM don’t want to be caught holding the baby.
Interesting to see where this all goes over the next week.
Https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=dap-fertilizer¤cy=brl
At roughly £483 per ton x 70000 tons is £33 million in turnover/ sales less costs but without the REE.
Is how I see it.
You do the maths.
Well. I see real value at this lowly share price point.
4p is a short term target and certainly 10 within a month or so.
Work out 70,000 tons of fertiliser a year plus now the REE which could well be worth more than the fertiliser products. Win win either way even without the REE.
Make no mistake this is huge news for the company’s prospects.
I don't have a clue how to value that REE RNS here.. and as I don't particularly trust Mr McMaster i'll stick with 0 for now..
But I do think the 'fertiliser' business will slowly/steadily turn around - from a total mess in 2023 - thru this year and next and so paying 2p ish of a bit under as a buy and hold play here around now seems ok to me.
I'm somewhat concerned re day traders who bought yesterday dumping in coming days and so will wait and watch for a while before looking at adding back here ..
(I have a small bet in play here now only, had a mid sized bet but sold plenty of that yesterday between 2.4 p and 3p.. but I do intend adding back here as we go .. was/am hoping for a sub 1.7p buy later this week.. but may not get that, I understand)
Started: Barno61, 11 Apr 2024 11:21
Last post: Barno61, 11 Apr 2024 11:21
Started: DrMicho, 10 Apr 2024 15:51
Last post: NicetoMichu, 11 Apr 2024 08:43
When is that 2.5 p incoming Gordon Bennett?
Gordon Bennett
At 2.26 pm today you posted here .. 'might have a flutter once I digest news' .. looking at the intra day s/p chart, I'm bamboozled how you bought in here this arbo at 1.9 p, Gordon Bennett, Gordon Bennett?
Busiest part of the day game post 2.5 so plenty to play for
Great if you're right Gordon Bennett.. but who knows really
PS: I see all such plays as this as betting not investing .... and I genuinely do like/support this as a 2024 play.. days traders in play here now though .. so in short term this could be a v volatile doggy..
I bought in at 1.9 so bugger off. This will move back towards 2.5 tomo support your investment
Started: whl2, 10 Apr 2024 20:39
Last post: smalleyus, 11 Apr 2024 03:25
Seem to have got that wrong.....
They could only be referring to the Maximus mine site concession and the tenement immediately to the east of Maximus where the did a lot of sample drilling though never released any finding to the SH. A Final Research Report for that tenement was submitted to AMN Sept 2023.
The key samples noted in the RNS. KMF01, MXBS01, 02, 03 & MXBS04 Global were analysed circa 2016 with the results used to confirm remineraliser minimum specification.
Seem to have got that though when using the term 'Global'. It was KMF01 that should be 'Global', the MXBS... samples were 'Geosol'. Simple mistake to make and only 16,000km between the two?
The 'Historical Work' with the huge disclaimer looks like just grab samples were taken.
Not to worry, sounds like Harvest are doing the same: 'Harvest is presently engaged in sample collection from the same locations within an area known as the Capacete area, as part of its own data verification process.'
More grab samples then?
Well you can't do real research on an area where you don't have a research permit, right?
A classic for a placing, just like the 'Harvest Minerals makes exciting new K2O Discovery at its 100% owned Arapua Project' between 6% and 10% K2O it was?
Took the edge off the disappointing dust sales though, particularly March?
Good Look
From today's RNS
"Throughout the exploration and drilling phases aimed at defining the MRE, a considerable number of samples were collected and are currently stored at the Arapuá Project's facilities. Upon revisiting the laboratory analysis database for these samples, the presence of REE has been identified in the kamafugite rocks, the rock type associated with the Arapuá Project's mineral resources."
I wonder when the revisit took place, I'm guessing within the last seven days !
Started: john4242, 10 Apr 2024 17:50
Last post: john4242, 10 Apr 2024 17:50
Funny how are feeling down a mineshaft in his wheelchair I guess, smalleyus appears out of thin air talking exactly the same..
Started: profs, 10 Apr 2024 16:26
Last post: Gordonbennett1, 10 Apr 2024 16:41
Clearly chasing it that’s for sure and those orders from 2022 sitting for easy for collection.
Will be interesting to see if any large trades appear, swings would suggest something needed filled.
Nobody seems to have a clue unfortunately
Any ideas when Agrocerrado will pay.
Feb 2023 rns states courts rejected Agrocerrado defence and ruled in HMI favour again so moved to debt enforcement stage?
Started: 5085, 10 Apr 2024 13:56
Last post: Gordonbennett1, 10 Apr 2024 15:51
Big close no sellers here!
Disco this will be 5p by the end of the week so you have one prediction right!
The closest MEI REE project to Maximus is at Capão do Mel with a weighted average TREO 4,299 vs circa 1,500 for Maximus (so far)?
Just about makes MEI cut-off ppm.
Good Look
Great volume over 12m traded!
Might have a flutter once I digest the news.
No it isn't.
Those licences were sold on the Viridis and now form part of the Colossus Project.
Good Look
Started: TK44, 10 Apr 2024 12:32
Last post: TK44, 10 Apr 2024 13:43
Well this already shoot up. thats on all time low with potential just need patient
No it's not, you're just down massively and are desperately trying to recoup your losses.
Embarrassing.
.
Started: Barno61, 10 Apr 2024 13:33
Last post: Barno61, 10 Apr 2024 13:33
Depending on what the REE are . The find could be worth more than the fertiliser sales and the company.
This could easily be a complete game changer for Harvest.
REE are worth a great deal of money. Solid hold.
Last post: NicetoMichu, 10 Apr 2024 12:49
Gordon Bennett, it's Gordon Bennett .. that's all we need.. while I wouldn't rather it be Burton, it's a close one :-)
That’s a mega spike.. surely they are filling some orders, otherwise they just fleeced many punters.
I hope he was one of the cost savings!
Hopefully he stays away.. he's a total liability... his publicity is that bad he should be paying hmi.l and not the other way round :-)
Wonder if Burton will be giving this the big up today.
Started: NicetoMichu, 10 Apr 2024 09:35
Last post: wastegatechatter, 10 Apr 2024 11:30
3.1 just gone for 37k worth. Order filled maybe?
Nothing contentious in what he RNS'd today imho..
And the s/p is just too low versus the fundamentals now imho..
It was too high at 17p ish not that long ago, obviously .. but the fall from such height was beyond epic.. so just getting a bit of that back now..
Generally, even if this were to go up to 4 p plus in short order, the market cap would still be small versus the assets imho
dyor
Unfortunately Brian McM is the Chief Exec and his track record of sp destruction is impressive so check and double check what he says.....
One bag up on the day now, I see.. here's to this two bagging today, please
This rally continuing again now I see ...that doesn't surprise me as the market cap would still be tiny if this s/p doubled today...
Started: NicetoMichu, 4 Apr 2024 16:38
Last post: NicetoMichu, 8 Apr 2024 09:31
Thanks for the feedback Smalleyus..
That's not me selling Friday and today btw..
I still believe things will be progressive - from a mess of a 23 low base granted - here thru 24 and 25 and can still see this s/p going up to 3p area thru 24..
Niceto....
You seem to have missed the latest metric Harvest have added to the confusion:
'.....the Company has been paid for....'
What really matters here is revenue and raising an invoice is the closest you'll get to that. There's no point in Harvest raising an invoice if they can't deliver it as it cost Harvest 2% of the sale price (CFEM).
The auditor put an end to Harvest raising an invoice and trying to claim that as revenue without actually delivering it.
They tried that in Dec 2022 when they invoiced 45,522tonnes. The auditor disallowed circa 33kt of that from being claimed as revenue because it had not been delivered.
The product can't leave the site without an invoice and 'boleto' (ticket) to prove CFEM payment.
Getting paid, well have a look at the last RNS, they seem to be doing much better with getting paid.
Good Look
I don't understand how the invoicing in this business works along side the product delivery ..and so ask you - who understand a lot about many aspects of this business - some questions, please:
How long after/alongside 'fertiliser' - aka 'dust' by you - delivery might HMI, on approx average even, issue an Invoice to the customer for the product delivered?
Also, is it correct for me to assume that HMI don't issue invoices ahead of actual product delivery to the customer, invoicing only ever happens alongside/after delivery
How long, on average, after an invoice has been issued might HMI expect to get paid by the customer? ( I know it could vary... there may be some bad debts too.. hence just a rough on average figure please.. including.. banks etc may lend to customer to allow pay quickly .. or some have cash saved to pay quickly .. or some may be allowed pay after their harvests have been sold etc..? Please elaborate a bit as you see fit )
I understand that some orders may be placed in one for delivery in a future quarter ..as much as for delivery in the quater they're placed in .... and some of those orders may subsequently get cancelled by the customer hence why Orders versus invoiced sales can be plenty different.. what I need to understand better is why invoiced sales can be plenty different to Invoiced and delivered sales
Started: smalleyus, 31 Mar 2024 03:23
Last post: whl2, 4 Apr 2024 16:17
Looks like the Q1 results are out tomorrow then !
Smalleyus you say:
''The Q1/23 RNS stated 3,560t invoiced and delivered, but they actually invoiced far more than then 3,560t in Q1/23.''
This has me thinking that there are potentially three different target figures that could be in play here:
1) Sales Orders received (which is also referred to as 'Placed Orders' in RNS's previously and probably going forward too)
2) Sales Order Invoiced
3) Sales orders Invoiced and delivered
I apologise for overly simply assuming 2) and 3) to be effectively the same thing in my previous posts.. and not get they are different
I'll also note that Mr McMaster had 'Invoiced sales' as the basis of his targets for 2023
as in: ''invoiced sales guidance of 200,000 tonnes for FY 2023."
But
he's changed to 'placed orders' as the basis of his targets for 2024
as in: ''gives Board confidence to set 2024 sales guidance of 70,000 tonnes of placed orders.''
And we don't know exactly what he's going to feedback us of the above 1) 2) 3) in the Q1 Update.. but we can expect 'placed orders' - as in 1) above - in the Quarter to be fed back on as that's the basis of his 24 targets .. and while we could potentially get 2) Sales Order Invoiced AND 3) Sales orders invoiced and delivered ; I'll offer it's more likely we only get feedback on one of those (and/or we get something else different again .. as Mr McMaster likes moving the goal posts )
Finally, when you say : ''When I stated 'less than 9,000t is disappointing' I'm referring to invoiced only in Q1/24 irrespective of when the orders were placed.''
I do hear what you're saying .. but - per afore - offer there's another angle of complexity too in that you're referring to 'invoiced only' and not 'invoiced and delivered'
.... And I further offer that you may not even get a figure for 'invoiced only' in this upcoming Q1 24 RNS to compare your 'less than 9,000t is disappointing' shout too ?
As you may - just/instead - get 'Sales orders Invoiced and delivered '
(and/ or something else different again even)
Please correct any errors I've made above.. in case I've just confused myself - further- now?
Thanks
Michu
Niceto...
The Q1/23 RNS stated 3,560t invoiced and delivered, but they actually invoiced far more than then 3,560t in Q1/23.
When I stated 'less than 9,000t is disappointing' I'm referring to invoiced only in Q1/24 irrespective of when the orders were placed.
Good Look
PS: I do get that the target offered by B mcMaster for 24 was placed order only :
''gives Board confidence to set 2024 sales guidance of 70,000 tonnes of placed orders.''
I would have liked there to have been a target for Invoiced sales too .. as that is far more meaningful and we've discovered is generally a -very- meaningfully different - as in LOWER - number than placed orders.
But history shows us that Mr McMaster likes giving himself significant wriggle room.. and is plenty partial to smoke and mirrors too !!
Whl2, I cut and paste from that 18th April last year Q1 update here :
Sales orders received total 16,755 tonnes versus budget of 12,000 tonnes
Sales orders invoiced and delivered total 3,560 tonnes
Both Smalleyus and I are focused on invoiced sales in the trail below .. far more than orders received ..
So it's the 3560 tonnes that I'm saying will be 7000 or 8000 tonnes this year Q1 .. and also what Smalleyus is referring to when he says less than 9000 tonnes would be disappointing....
ie what I'm hoping for is approx. a doubling versus last year for Q1 ..
which I would hope would support a decent s/p rally here off the back
There are sellers and buyers at all levels lbarlow.. if you're a large seller around 2.65p then I understand you could undermine any rally.. but the market cap. here would be so low versus a business that might easily be turning itself decently around in 2024, that I would hope a significant amount of buying would be occurring here in the 2's - and 3's p even - to absorb any any such meaningful selling...