The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Gnome, my wife is Chinese & accordingly I have a large Chinese family (larger than my gui-lo/gui-po family), I can tell you from anecdotal evidence that the Chinese ban on Australia wine exports to China actually hurt Chinese people as much as Australian people as buying Australian vineyards was very prevalent in the wealthier Chinese community. They are liked mainly for investment purposes, buying citizenship purposes & also to get money out of China/yuan into other currency denominated investments.
The central government is currently clamping down on the movement of funds out of China so it is not as easy as it was a couple of years ago but the appetite remains strong particularly for agricultural/farming properties (many are not aware that their exists significant agricultural knowledge & talent in China). If we decide it is a good idea to sell them the properties there are a lot of Chinese who will be more than happy to accomodate us :)
Thanks GOLDGNOME , I read Annas post post earlier, and you are right about china and india.
Good night from here ,keep well.
Central bank gold buying update: 2023 sees the strongest start to a year in more than a decade
Anna Golubova
Tuesday April 04, 2023 16:10
(Kitco News) The gold market continued to receive support from central banks as countries kept adding gold to their reserves in February, marking the strongest start to the year since at least 2010, according to the latest data released by the World Gold Council (WGC).
Global gold reserves increased by 52 tonnes in February, rising for the 11th month in a row, the WGC said Tuesday. In January, central banks bought 74 tonnes of gold. And that follows record levels of last year, with 1,136 tonnes purchased.
Year-to-date, central banks' net purchases stand at 125 tonnes. "This is the strongest start to a year back to at least 2010 – when central banks became net buyers on an annual basis," said WGC's senior analyst Krishan Gopaul.
Interesting to see China, wo is the worlds largest gold producer, continue to buy gold strongly. India and China will lead the world financially very soon, if they dont already. Our stats in Oz are so poor they do not reliably show the amount of Chinese ownership of Mining, Agriculture, infrastructure, and services. Not to mention our wineries, some household names
https://buyausmag.com.au/41-australian-vineyards-owned-by-chinese-firms/
the gnome
Alas so, which is why it’s a stock to trade not hold. I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve hear if gold hits… then profit will be… and sp will be… it NEVER works like this… the only certainty is the director keep get well paid irrespective of the SP performance which simply baffles me
Gold at almost all time highs, yet CEY SP languishing down not too far of its bottom, with its piggy-bank bust-open as well for good-measure. Well done directors, you are fully deserving of the share largesse coming your way very soon. - Of course it's never done anything else.
Taking it's time for the SP to react
Oh my word- back from golf- go gold, more importantly go CEY :-)
The price of yellow metal broke over $2,000 on Tuesday, reaching its one-year high following the release of data on the United States' labor market, which showed a large drop in US job openings.
Gold jumped 1.62% to go for $2,016.40 per ounce at 10:16 am ET, hitting its highest level since March last year.
Silver surged 2.73%, selling at $24.64 per ounce at the same time. Platinum gained 1.84% to $1,011.91 per ounce and palladium rose 0.86% to go for $1,464.13 per ounce.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
New daily high $2024.95
..have a feeling $2000/oz level is becoming a new floor for POG.
Toady bad U.S. JOLTs Job Openings is important because this data was one of the last bullish data supporting a strong USD imo....
Finger crossed for tomorrow U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Thursday U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Create Alert.
But imv today number are already setting POG for new hights..
Moron
110 hear we come!!
$1645…..
$2005.39 New high
Just hit the high of the day at $1995.97
Zipping about all over the place
We maintain our Buy recommendation on Centamin despite the
pullback in the shares following the recent capital markets day, as
we believe that the company is well positioned to meet new
guidance, with upside potential from the Egyptian exploration
portfolio.
We remain more cautious about the company's west
African assets.
Centamin has a solid balance sheet and should
produce 450-500koz of gold over the longer term from Sukari.
? We value Centamin on an equally weighted blend of NPV (10%) and
EV/EBITDA methodologies to generate our GBp144 price target, and
maintain a Buy rating.
Current price
Price target
GBp101
GBp144
28/03/2023 London Close
Market cap (GBPm) 1,160
Reuters CEY.L
Bloomberg CEY LN
Changes made in this note
Rating: Buy (no change)
Price target: GBp144 (140)
Estimates changes
2023E 2024E 2025E
old ? % old ? % old ? %
Sales 877 1.1 914 0 - -
EBITDA 380 2.4 428 0 - -
EPS 0.16 1.0 0.19 -0.5 - -
Source: Berenberg estimates
Share data
Shares outstanding (m) 1,153
Enterprise value (GBPm) 1,125
Daily trading volume 7,350,000
Y/E 31/12, USDm 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenues 733 788 887 914 926
EBITDA 292 318 389 428 437
EBIT 153 172 253 289 287
Net income (adjusted) 140 73 194 226 205
EPS (reported) 0.09 0.06 0.17 0.20 0.18
EPS (adjusted) 0.12 0.06 0.17 0.19 0.18
DPS 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06
Dividend payout ratio 75% 80% 30% 50% 50%
Dividend yield 6.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6%
Capex -241 -276 -272 -248 -229
Free cash flow 69 16 86 192 216
FCF yield -0.4% -1.3% 2.0% 8.5% 8.9%
Y/E net debt (net cash) -208 -102 -95 -188 -255
Net debt / EBITDA -0.71 -0.32 -0.24 -0.44 -0.58
Gross margin 24.0% 24.9% 31.0% 34.0% 33.3%
EBITDA margin 39.9% 40.4% 43.8% 46.8% 47.1%
EBIT margin 20.9% 21.8% 28.5% 31.7% 31.0%
ROCE 11.4% 12.4% 16.3% 16.6% 15.2%
P/E 11.7 19.9 7.4 6.8 7.5
EV/EBITDA 5.1 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.0
Source: Company
Route back to 500koz the focus
? What to watch out for in Q1: For Centamin, we expect Q1 production of
101koz at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of USD1,512/oz from the Sukari
gold mine in Egypt. We expect revenues of USD192m and capex of USD71m.
Centamin does not report full financials on a quarterly basis. We expect
production to be H2 weighted, in line with company commentary, and for
the year expect total production of 461koz at an AISC of USD1,349/oz. The
company will likely also provide updates on the Doropo project in Côte
d’Ivoire and also on its various initiatives at the Sukari mine to take
production back to c500koz pa + and lower costs to below USD1,200/oz.
? Expansion projects the key: The company is currently undertaking three
key projects. The first is the Doropo project in Côte d’Ivoire. A pre-feasibility
study (PFS) on the project is expected in June. We currently value the project
at USD278m, with annual production of 150kozpa at an AISC of USD904/oz
and initial capex of USD273m. Secondly, the company is progressing a new
life-of-mine plan for Sukari that should detail the expansion of the
underground which is expected to reach 1.5mtpa; this will require
development of portals into the pit, and, alongside smaller projects such as
dump leach and gravity circuit, will allow the company to reach its goal of
increasing production from the asset to back above 500kozpa. With costs
reducing also, this will, we think, result in costs moving down to cUSD1,100-
1,200/oz. Finally, we would look for commentary on the company’s eastern
desert exploration (EDX) programme in Egypt, where it is seeking to
discover new deposits that would be able to form standalone deposits. We
would expect commentary on fiscal terms for exploitation of these resources
to also be a near-term catalyst. We would also look for any updates on
smaller, higher-grade new deposits within truckable distance of Sukari.
? Model changes and valuation: We update our model for our revised price
deck; our price target increases to GBp144 per share. The stock is trading on
1.06x NAV and 3.5x FY 2023E EBITDA. Centamin will, over the next couple
of years, meaningfully lower costs and increase production, enabling a
meaningful FCF increase, while also progressing attractive greenfield
growth projects, such as Doropo. We remain Buy-rated and would add on
current, unmerited, weakness.
Hi Tony,
I would expect it to move even higher if gold can stay at this kind of level for long enough that the assumption in valuing CEY is that this is the new normal rather than a spike.
At this gold level we are looking at clearing c$600 over AISC, in fact all else being equal you would expect AISC to fall next year assuming CEY manage to deliver the step up to 500koz per year that they promise. Horgan so far has broadly delivered on the oz increases he has promised year on year.
At 500k oz even assuming no lowering of AISC but assuming gold holds then we get $300M profit per annum. From memory EMRA gets 52.5% so there is 47.5% left i.e. $142.5M which is c£115M. With 1,56M shares in circulation that equates to 10p per share. It is then a case pick you p/e. At 10 you get the current share price, at 15 you get £1.50.
There is a general downer on CEY at the moment that I think is overdone, unless you belief the current price of gold is a short term spike.
Best wishes,
Prof
If the gold price is to stay where it is now, then Centamin should move to around 115p. Each day the average gold price sold is approaching $1900 per ounce annual average where as a few weeks ago it was around $1865.
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Tuesday ahead of the newest updates on Germany's trade balance and the Eurozone's producer prices.
The DAX rose by 0.28% at 7:49 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 advanced by 0.24%. The CAC 40 gained 0.36%. The Eurostoxx 50 went up by 0.29%.
The euro lost 0.12% to the dollar at 7:50 am CET to sell for $1.08859. At that minute, the pound sterling decreased by 0.15% against the United States currency to change hands for $1.23976.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
In Gold Processing
GlyCatTM enables an average 25% reduction in processing cost and ESG benefits by replacing a majority of cyanide with a non-toxic, food-grade reagent
- Utilizes glycine, a non-toxic food additive that is fully bio-degradable and recyclable.
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- Reduces or eliminates cyanide detoxification requirements
- Easily adapted to existing leaching circuits, essentially a drop-in additive.
- Supported by AI optimization tool
- Proprietary and patented technology
https://www.draslovka.com/glt
The product/process is being adopted by Barrick :
Draslovka has achieved a major milestone today with our announcement that Barrick Gold Corporation, one of the largest and most influential companies within the mining sector, has agreed to launch a global testing and implementation program for Draslovka’s cutting-edge proprietary glycine leaching technology.
Supported by Draslovka’s industry-leading service, GlyCat can potentially achieve an average reduction in processing costs of 25%, rising to 50% for some more complex ores.
Barrick is the first major mining company to recognise the potential glycine leaching offers. The programme is an opportunity for GlyCat to be systematically rolled out at a global scale, starting at the Bulyanhulu Gold Mine in Tanzania and several other Barrick operations as a model for the wider mining industry.
Largescale test work programmes will be undertaken at each site to quantify the operating cost savings from the reduction of cyanide usage, potential improvements in gold recovery, and lowering of cut-off grades, all of which will allow operations to treat ore types that may have previously been uneconomic.
https://www.draslovka.com/barrick-gold-to-roll-out-draslovka-s-glycine-leaching-technology-worldwide-36
Quits so Steve, thank you for the reminder!
Madness to go nuclear with all the associated risk and the toxic waste that can never be disposed of safely, just building problems for future generations!
Why not go for more solar, far safer and cheaper !
Well now there's a surprise Cowichan!