Gold currently through 1780. It is quarter end tonight. Read an interesting article a few days ago (can't remember whether but think it was either Kitco or KWN) that said if we close above 1772 then it breaks the highest quarterly close record. The article then looked at the previous few times gold had broken the quarterly close record and showed how each time POG had then taken off. Could we be about to see this?
Goldgnome, Thanks for the links and two very informative posts. It has only really occurred to me in the past few months that I have been looking at the price of gold through the wrong end of the telescope. Increasingly I am thinking of gold as constantly priced with the price of currencies increasing or decreasing relative to it. Your data on how much the euro has fallen in value since creation is therefore fascinating to me. I know that thinking of the value of gold as a constant is partially flawed but I find it helps my thinking. In the context of massive QE it also shifts my thinking to the idea that stock prices are not really going up, it is the value of the currencies buying them that is falling; because it now takes more of a currency to buy the same stock the indices go up. Again riddled with flaws but I find it helps me think about where to invest. Best wishes, Prof
RE: US wants UK to accept lower standards15 Jun 2020 18:46
Evening Mr Bond, Wouldn't have thought the stock market calls were anywhere near severe enough today to trigger extensive selling of gold and Cey to cover margin calls. My guess is that gold went down on nothing specific, just random statistical noise, and we got pulled down in line with that multiplied by the usual leveraging of c2.5 times. Best wishes, Prof
RE: Share price reaction in potential crash14 Jun 2020 07:21
Hi Biggles, Difficult to know. There is a saying that 'in a crash you sell what you can rather than what you want'. In other words where investors have bought on margin and are massively exposed in a crash they will need to quickly raise cash to fund the margin calls. In that instance selling gold may well occur not because people feel gold is overvalued but because they can get a reasonable price for it and need to raise money. Were we to see another crash I suspect we could see CEY dip in the short term but my expectation is that the dip would be short lived. Unfortunately the above is just by guess. No one knows for sure. Best wishes, Prof
As per my note earlier, but updated for the end of the day, CEY SP has behaved very strange today. Between 10am and close at 4.30 it was pretty much stuck between 161.5 and 163 with most of it between 161.5 and 162.5. This despite gold moving up (and then down) a fair bit. Not sure what to make of it. Any thoughts anyone? Yours, slightly confused , Prof.
This lot are in a SIPP so will be OK on tax. Will probably not hold too long but as I said yesterday not because of any lack of confidence in the company just a case of being over-concentrated. I am trying my hand at shorter term trading.
30k (20k then 10k) at average of 162.1 as gold looks to be on the move as the UK wakes up. Will it be an afternoon where I metaphorically pat myself on the back for my insight or slap myself for my stupidity?
Hi Sotolo, Thanks. I sold a further 20k just before the bell yesterday at 168 so only kept 30k of my disastrously timed 120k purchase (well 80k disastrously timed, the 40k at 147 was obviously good). Was trying to get back in for 30k at the 161/160 being shown if not quoted which would make my maths easy for working out I broke even. Gold holding nicely above 1730 this morning. If that holds I would expect CEY to recover a bit today although a pull back after yesterday's 7% rise is to be expected with gold not continuing up. Key will be whether the US open takes gold up like yesterday or down as it tended to do last week. Am definitely feeling better for having taken 90k shares off there table yesterday. As I posted I was too concentrated even for my liking. Keep smiling, Prof