Member Info for ElProfessor

hi paul,

yes, they were *** packet numbers and all from memory but what i was saying was that at $2250 gold (seems like a distant event now) then taking aisc as c. $1250 and the top end of production of 500, 000 oz then that would be $500m of profit. sharing that 50/50 with egypt (yes i know egypt actually get just beyond half) that means $250m left.

best wishes,

prof

Hi3bear, That sea-change is what I have been expecting for the past few years but despite the debt levels it has not seem to come. Maybe it is different this time and this is what we are seeing. We certainly seem to have a turbo charged gold price at the moment even if the turbo effect seems to be missing in CEY's accompanying rise. Still hoping we see something similar to the spring/summer of 2020 when CEY when pretty much vertical.

Best wishes,

Prof

Just been watching the live gold price for a while. After a few attempts it has just broken $2,300 to set a new record high. Heady times. As we were saying yesterday - will it hold?

Good morning Sotolo,

Hope all is well with you.

Is this time different - the million dollar question!

Are you still in HOC? The SP is starting to look a bit less sickly. I got most of mine out about level at just above 200 but have a small position there that I got stuck with when it went down into the 50s, so good to now only be a third under on those rather than three quarters.

Best wishes,

Prof

Gold has just taken out $2280.

Hi Tony,

The key question is indeed will it hold. The lack of a strong increase in the SP of the mining companies suggests the expectation is no. I am hoping that it will and mining companies will catch up but I have been wrong many times before. I am just conscious of the spring/summer of 2020 when CEY when sharply up over just a few months and wonder whether we could see that again.

Best wishes,

Prof

At this level of gold price Cey is clearing over $1,000 an oz assuming AISC around the middle of their range. At the top end of the forecast production that means $500M which leaves just under $250M after the Egyptian share. Assuming gold does not fall to far from the current price, and of course it could well increase, then Cey, to use Tibbs' phrase from a few years ago (2020?) will once again 'be spitting out cash like a demented cash-machine'. Is it time to talk of gold flip-flops again?

Best wishes,

Prof

Mike,

Thanks for the correction ref the 75%. That makes it even more extreme with the core of THS therefore being valued at c£45M.

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Ilja,

Given THS own 70% of Karo then with Karo's valuation at c. $210M that puts THS' share at c$150M.

THS currently has a market cap of £170M which with a GBP to USD rate of 1.26 is c$215M. That would suggest that all of the rest of THS is valued at $65M or £51.5M.

Assuming my maths and logic are not wrong then is it that: 1. Karo is significantly overvalued at $210, 2. The core of THS is of really limited value, 3. The market is fundamentally wrong?

I know it is a bit of an unfair question but that is what is going on in my head. Are you able to venture any thoughts please?

Best wishes,

Prof

I have no inside track so pondering it just based on what we 'outside' punters are able to see I wonder whether it may be IRH.

If they believe in JLP which clearly it seems that they do, then they will presumably want some of the mother ship rather than just the SPV. That would also tie in with why the price was set at the 30 day average prior to the announcement that caused the SP to go north. If I had negotiated this for IRH then I would not have wanted to pay a premium on the SP due to my involvement with JLP. In this scenario however why would everything not have been announced in the same RNS?

An alternative scenario is the cash raise is linked to the terms that JLP is able to get. £10M is insignificant for IRH; the SVP RNS talked about JLP having at least 30%. I wonder whether what enables JLP to move above that 30% is injecting more cash up front. In this view of the world then the dilution is being done to gain a greater % of the SVP which could be very sensible.

All, of course, just speculation. I am sure that in due course we will be told.

Best wishes,

Prof

Spoonington,

Thanks for confirming.

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Cowichan,

$34 millions could well be sales invoiced but not yet due as it does not even equate to a month of revenue and I would not be surprised in payment terms were 30 days. I make it 27 days worth of sales so not something that is likely to be a cause for concern. Clearly if there are overdue debtors in that then it is a different situation but it does not refer anywhere to overdue debtors/ bad debts.

I have looked back at the equivalent presentation for the year end but there is not a similar breakdown in any slide as far as I can see. The good news with that is they are now providing us with more transparency. If you think there is a problem it may be worth an email to Ross there CFO however I don't see anything that concerns me.

Spooning ton, Do you have a view?

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Tibbs,

I agree that there is an issue of trust in CEY however with AISC reported in the interims at $1228, and trending downwards, CEY is clearing around $700 with the current POG so is nicely cash generative, even after payment of the EMRA share.

Regarding the debt, we have not heard back from Cowichan today however given the point I made about the amounts shown in para 4.1 (page 38) being the latest position (i.e you don't add them together to get the current net debt) and Spoonington's clarification that in any case the numbers were thousands not millions, then it seems that the concerns raised by Cowichan were erroneous (happy to be corrected Cowichan it you think I am wrong).

You have, quite rightly in my opinion, castigated the previous management for not investing (spare LHDR, strip ratios...) The current management are doing the very opposite both in Sukari and Doropo. I appreciate that the money it takes to do this has to come from somewhere and applaud them for investing for a better tomorrow for CEY and its shareholders.

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Spoonington,

Thanks for confirming that.

Best wishes,

Prof

Morning Spoonington,

Thank you for the correction. Mea culpa - I was going through the numbers through the prism of Cowichan's concern and missed the key point that you make.

Do you agree however with the rest of my reading?

Best wishes,

Prof

Good Morning Cowichan,

Thanks for raising this potential issue. I have just looked at the July interim report and I read it differently to you.

To me it looks like each of the numbers that you quote is the snapshot at that point in time of the amount owed by CBE. So based on the sentence from page 38 (section 4.1) that you refer to:

'At 30 June 2023 the net receivable in EGP owing from the Central Bank of Egypt is approximately the equivalent of

US$16,062 (30 June 2022: US$42,922 net payable and 31 December 2022: US$23,681 receivable).'

my understanding, given that it says 'net receivables' is that $42.9M was owed on 30 Jun 22, that this had reduced to $23.6M by 31 Dec 22 and then further reduced to $16M by 30 Jun 22). In other words the amount owed by CBE is reducing not increasing and we should not be adding the numbers together to get $82.6M.

Para 4.1 also says :

'the parties may jointly elect, on a monthly basis, for the CBE to supply SGM with its local Egyptian currency requirements

for that month '

which also gives me confidence that my reading is correct as why would SGM continue to 'elect' if CBE were racking up increasing debt to SGM.

I would be grateful to hear if you think I am getting this wrong.

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Seis,

Thank you for posting those comparison graphs of JLP/SLP. They are very illuminating.

I sold my SLP holdings a month or so ago at a substantial lost as they are a pure PGM play (although they have since RNSed action taken to diversify somewhat).

Still in both JLP and THS.

Best wishes,

Prof

From the 20th July operational update:

"Our Northern Strategy continues to progress on several fronts, including advanced talks to secure a significant operational refining footprint, from where we are able to establish a central refining footprint in the area. The Jubilee team is working to complete the on-going pilot trials to optimise the targeted process solution for the treatment of the range of northern copper and cobalt wastes. These results will be used to inform the capital requirements for the project which has been delayed to August 2023. Final test programs includes scaling up further the pilot work to a newly constructed large scale piloting facility expected to commence during September 2023."

Today's RNS is updating on this and, as far as I can, is doing so with very positive news.

Best wishes,

Prol

Hi RaxFactor,

I agree with you that something doesn't feel right with PGMs at current levels so far below analyst consensus. Wrt Rh I read somewhere about the release of stocks from certain producers who had substituted other materials. If that is the case then hopefully we should see a reasonable rise once that flushes through.

At what level would you be tempted to go back in given your calculations?

Thanks,

Prof

Bangrak,

Many thanks.

Best wishes,

Prof