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Thanks Red. Look forward to seeing you back in when the time is right.
And don't eat all those Teacakes at once!
Best wishes,
Prof
Red,
Farewell for now and best of luck with your investing. I fully sold up my Cey holding somewhere below £1 as it was getting too painful watching it drop daily. I then bought back in for a fraction more than I had sold because I realised that I still believed in the Cey story.
Best wishes,
Prof
Yesterday gold hit over $2,400. If Cey deliver at the bottom end of AISC that is 1,200 so are then also clearing $1,200 and oz.
To put it another way, that is the equivalent of having a gold price of $1,200, which we would have been perfectly happy with a few years back, and an AISC of zero - in other words free gold.
I don't know if gold will stay at this level, because I don't understand why it has suddenly moved up to this level. It seems that I am in good company as the so called experts seem to be all over the place both in their explanations for the recent surge and as to their view as to what comes next. However from the current gold price we could see a fall back of 15% and still be over $2,000 so clearing $800 an oz assuming the low end of AISC. I can't help but think that the current share price is not reflecting the fundamentals of CEY. At top end of forecast CEY will turn out 500k oz this year and will most likely clear $1,000-$1,200 per oz (post AISC).
Best wishes to all,
Prof
Hi LUFC,
I guess you have had some sleepless nights along the way then. Hope this one turns out well for you (and the rest of us).
Best wishes,
Prof
Steve,
Always nice to see an honest and non-egocentric post.
Thank you.
Best wishes,
Prof
Https://goldseek.com/article/biggest-copper-mines-produced-20-less-copper-2023
hi paul,
yes, they were *** packet numbers and all from memory but what i was saying was that at $2250 gold (seems like a distant event now) then taking aisc as c. $1250 and the top end of production of 500, 000 oz then that would be $500m of profit. sharing that 50/50 with egypt (yes i know egypt actually get just beyond half) that means $250m left.
best wishes,
prof
Hi3bear, That sea-change is what I have been expecting for the past few years but despite the debt levels it has not seem to come. Maybe it is different this time and this is what we are seeing. We certainly seem to have a turbo charged gold price at the moment even if the turbo effect seems to be missing in CEY's accompanying rise. Still hoping we see something similar to the spring/summer of 2020 when CEY when pretty much vertical.
Best wishes,
Prof
Just been watching the live gold price for a while. After a few attempts it has just broken $2,300 to set a new record high. Heady times. As we were saying yesterday - will it hold?
Good morning Sotolo,
Hope all is well with you.
Is this time different - the million dollar question!
Are you still in HOC? The SP is starting to look a bit less sickly. I got most of mine out about level at just above 200 but have a small position there that I got stuck with when it went down into the 50s, so good to now only be a third under on those rather than three quarters.
Best wishes,
Prof
Gold has just taken out $2280.
Hi Tony,
The key question is indeed will it hold. The lack of a strong increase in the SP of the mining companies suggests the expectation is no. I am hoping that it will and mining companies will catch up but I have been wrong many times before. I am just conscious of the spring/summer of 2020 when CEY when sharply up over just a few months and wonder whether we could see that again.
Best wishes,
Prof
At this level of gold price Cey is clearing over $1,000 an oz assuming AISC around the middle of their range. At the top end of the forecast production that means $500M which leaves just under $250M after the Egyptian share. Assuming gold does not fall to far from the current price, and of course it could well increase, then Cey, to use Tibbs' phrase from a few years ago (2020?) will once again 'be spitting out cash like a demented cash-machine'. Is it time to talk of gold flip-flops again?
Best wishes,
Prof
Mike,
Thanks for the correction ref the 75%. That makes it even more extreme with the core of THS therefore being valued at c£45M.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Ilja,
Given THS own 70% of Karo then with Karo's valuation at c. $210M that puts THS' share at c$150M.
THS currently has a market cap of £170M which with a GBP to USD rate of 1.26 is c$215M. That would suggest that all of the rest of THS is valued at $65M or £51.5M.
Assuming my maths and logic are not wrong then is it that: 1. Karo is significantly overvalued at $210, 2. The core of THS is of really limited value, 3. The market is fundamentally wrong?
I know it is a bit of an unfair question but that is what is going on in my head. Are you able to venture any thoughts please?
Best wishes,
Prof
I have no inside track so pondering it just based on what we 'outside' punters are able to see I wonder whether it may be IRH.
If they believe in JLP which clearly it seems that they do, then they will presumably want some of the mother ship rather than just the SPV. That would also tie in with why the price was set at the 30 day average prior to the announcement that caused the SP to go north. If I had negotiated this for IRH then I would not have wanted to pay a premium on the SP due to my involvement with JLP. In this scenario however why would everything not have been announced in the same RNS?
An alternative scenario is the cash raise is linked to the terms that JLP is able to get. £10M is insignificant for IRH; the SVP RNS talked about JLP having at least 30%. I wonder whether what enables JLP to move above that 30% is injecting more cash up front. In this view of the world then the dilution is being done to gain a greater % of the SVP which could be very sensible.
All, of course, just speculation. I am sure that in due course we will be told.
Best wishes,
Prof
Spoonington,
Thanks for confirming.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Cowichan,
$34 millions could well be sales invoiced but not yet due as it does not even equate to a month of revenue and I would not be surprised in payment terms were 30 days. I make it 27 days worth of sales so not something that is likely to be a cause for concern. Clearly if there are overdue debtors in that then it is a different situation but it does not refer anywhere to overdue debtors/ bad debts.
I have looked back at the equivalent presentation for the year end but there is not a similar breakdown in any slide as far as I can see. The good news with that is they are now providing us with more transparency. If you think there is a problem it may be worth an email to Ross there CFO however I don't see anything that concerns me.
Spooning ton, Do you have a view?
Best wishes,
Prof