Member Info for ElProfessor

Hi Manutdbo,

If you read my post from 0838 you will see why I was nervous and sold out and some of those concerns may be shared by others.

With regards to the specific drop today I don't know although interestingly there was no RNS from SLP this morning announcing that they had bought shares yesterday. Pure speculation on my part but if they decided that with the drop in Rh the share buy back was the only thing keeping the SP up and that it was not actually worth 78/79p with Rh at $4000 then the resulting drying up in demand for the shares could cause a sudden fall. It will be interesting to see in the next few days whether they RNS more share purchases or not.

Good luck whatever you decide to do.

Best wishes,

Prof

Thanks Ilja, always good to have definitive figures from the horse's mouth.

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Dorfan,

Agreed ref the filter button. He is the only person I filter so whenever I see a green box I know that he has been posting again. Strangely I never miss not seeing what he has said.

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Bangrak,

Apologies for the 'Bangkok' in the last message - autocorrect strikes again.

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Bangkok,

Do I take it you are therefore out and watching as I now am?

If so are you still in THS?

Thanks,

Prof

Hi Loggy,

That is the million dollar question and I hope it has but then I was hoping that at 10,000, which was below where a lot of analysts said this would be in 2023, and therefore why I have stayed in SLP for so long.

If you are confident that it has bottomed then there is a case for adding however I worry that with a small rise in Rhodium we may still not see a rise in the share price as it is the share buy back that is creating artificial demand at this level. A significant rise in Rh however which is not at all impossible if the current price is indeed due to excess stocks being dumped, would I suspect drive a strong recovery in the SLP share price.

Ultimately, as so often, how you anticipate some key drivers playing out are what will dictate how you proceed.

Good Luck,

Prof

With a heavy heart that is me out of SLP having taken a hit of about a third. I like the cash pile and I suspect the fall in Rhodium is overdone as a result of dumping of surplus stocks however worry that it will not recover much and could even go lower.

SLP is a pure PGM play unlike THS which has some offset from other commodities and yet they are down majorly as Rhodium has dropped. I fear that at present SLP is only being held up by the share buy back.

As Bangrak says it may take a quarter or two for the impact of the PGM falls to become apparent however at these levels there is not a lot of profit being made. The cash pile can cushion a bit but the current high dividend, which is I suspect the main element keeping people invested, looks under threat to me.

In the more immediate term I worry that the July results will start to shed a light on all of this and even with the share buy backs we may see a further fall in the SP particularly given the adjustment on previous quarter sales that Artrader refers to in his 07:21 post.

So those are my reasons for getting out. I might be wrong and kick myself - not an unusual occurrence. If we see a reversal in PGM declines I might be tempted however it would have to be significant and I am more likely to increase my holding in THS or JLP that are more diversified.

Good luck to you all whether in or out .

Best wishes,

Prof

Hi Bangkok,
Thanks for that precis. Am I right that the p/e of 7.4 that you get is before taking the cash out of the market cap?
If so then with cash at about half of cap then the p/e shift to about half of your calculated p/e once cash balance is stripped out.
Is that right?
Thanks,
Prof

Just had a mail into my inbox at 1615 from Hargreaves Lansdown with ideas to benefit from rising gold. They recommend 2 shares: Barrick and Centamin. Text ref Centamin as follows:

Centamin is another gold miner, but with a much more concentrated portfolio than a global giant like Barrick, it offers something different.
Operations focus on the Sukari mine in Egypt, with another couple of sites at varying stages of development. A concentrated portfolio adds risk. We'd argue the added risk paves the way for greater upside potential. Nonetheless, if anything happens to the site in Egypt, there's little in the way of backup.
Production at the Sukari mine has been in decline for several years. But 2022 marked an end to that trend, production's expected to return to around 500,000 ounces from 2024, slightly ahead of some estimates. Reserves have been improving and an updated expansion plan is expected in the second half.
Diversification away from the Sukari mine is underway, with progress being made at the Doropo project in Côte d'Ivoire. The latest project study is due for completion in the first half of this year, which could act as a near-term catalyst. The business is on strong foundations, with cash on the balance sheet and zero debt. But as with all mining projects, risks are high.
Like Barrick, costs have been on the rise, putting pressure on margins. The effects are being reduced to some extent by a $150m cost-saving programme due to be delivered by the end of the year. Progress so far has been encouraging, with $116m in savings delivered as at the end of the last financial year.
Its concentrated portfolio makes Centamin a higher-risk option than some of its larger peers. That’s reflected in a less demanding valuation, which we see as offering upside. Though, there’s no guarantee.

Hi Goldgnome,

I thought it was bed time down under!

I would love to see those figures. Put the $2200 together with a slight over performance on the AISC range that I mention in my previous post and we would be getting $1000 an oz over costs. Now wouldn't that be nice.
Yours dreaming,
Prof

Hi Paul,
I am afraid that I have limited figures to hand. The guidance for AISC for this FY is $1250-1400. Q1 AISC was $1348 for a production of 105,875oz so already well below the top end of the guidance range. All else being equal AISC will fall as oz produced increases as the non marginal costs of production are spread over a larger volume of ozs. That should therefore drive AISC down over the rest of the year. All else however is not equal and I expect a number of the other initiatives that CEY has underway to drive down AISC to have some effect this year (you mention the grid connection although of little/ limited impact this FY I suspect) and also some of the one off costs as they seek to get the mine back in shape to cease or reduce (you mention waste removal which we should see the 'extraordinary' element slip away although some is business as usual. As such I would be disappointed to see AISC above the mid-point of the range and would hope to see it somewhere between the bottom end of $1,250 and the midpoint of $1,325.
A large part of this guesstimate and perhaps too much is hope. I do suspect that CEY have given a range that they are comfortable being able to deliver even with bad inflation and a few curve balls as Horgan does seem to like to play it safe (fine by me!). If that inflation is not as bad as last year and there are no serious curve balls then that also gives me an expectation that we could come in within the figures I mention above of $1250-$1325.
Ultimately however we will only know in retrospect.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Goldgnome,
Thanks for sharing. Well if that happened CEY would be clearing $800-900 over AISC. Even our share price would have to react to that!
Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Dasut, that is a helpful explanation.
Best wishes,
Prof

Just managed to buy 10,000 more shares at just under 106 on opening. Did not expect that with both gold knocking back on 1999 and this morning's RNS. Would expect to see a reasonable move up today - we shall see!
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Tony,
I agree - boringly predictable seems to be Horgan's hallmark which I am quite happy with.
I liked : 'Q1 cash costs of US$937/oz produced and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,348/oz sold' as if they can do that with the Q1 lower production of just under 106k oz then is should fall when they deliver the higher production that will get us to 450-480koz for the year. Gold sold at an average of over 1900 for the quarter which means CEY are clearing over $550 an oz. For April so far I suspect the average price of gold is over $2000 so (big ifs coming here) if that holds for the rest of the year and AISC comes in at mid-point of guided range i.e. $1325 then CEY are clearing $675 per ounce. That would be taking us back to the days when Tibbs, if I remember correctly referred to Centamin as 'a demented cash machine spitting out the cash'.
Best wishes,
Prof

HIGHLIGHTS

Operational performance delivered in line with the mine plan

· The lost time injury frequency rate ("LTIFR") for the three months to 31 March 2023 ("Q1") was 0.31 per one million hours worked, reflecting one lost time injury. The total recordable injury frequency rate ("TRIFR") was 2.77 per one million hours worked
· Q1 gold production from the Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") was 105,875 ounces ("oz")
· Q1 revenue of US$205 million, an 18% increase from Q1 2022, generated from gold sales of 107,661 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,902/oz sold
· Q1 cash costs of US$937/oz produced and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,348/oz sold
· Q1 capital expenditure of US$54 million including the final stages of the underground paste-fill plant construction ahead of commissioning in Q2, and
· Robust balance sheet with cash and liquid assets of US$155 million, as at 31 March 2023 and US$150 million undrawn revolving credit facility.

MARTIN HORGAN, CEO, commented: "These results reflect a good start to the year, with the Sukari team delivering another consistent performance in line with our operational plan, as well as making great progress on our key capital projects. Our mining operations continue to benefit from both increased flexibility in the open pit, as a result of the accelerated waste-mining strategy and operational productivity gains, as well as improved productivity and performance from the underground mine, following the transition to owner mining in 2022.

We reiterate our 2023 guidance and look forward to reporting later in the year on several additional projects which will deliver growth and underpin returns. These include connecting Sukari to the grid which will reduce carbon emissions and save costs, publishing an optimised Sukari life of mine plan, commencing drill testing on our Egyptian Eastern Desert blocks and completing the PFS at our advanced Doropo Project in Côte d'Ivoire."

Morning Sotolo,
One often finds kindness and support in the least likely of places.
Sorry to hear about the medical issues and good luck to you and yours.
Very best wishes,
Prof

Hi Tibbs,
I very much agree. This has always been one of the best boards for member civility and input.
Best wishes,
Prof

Seis,
The ticking isn't even that slowly now!
Best wishes,
Prof