The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
But the quantity of BushyTailed's post this morning have finally led me to filter him/her.
Hi Tibbs,
Thanks for your thoughts. I agree that at the time we did not know what Pardey et al were doing. My point was more that now that we do we condemn it while simultaneously objecting to the present regime investing for the longer term. As such i wonder whether we are not a little inconsistent.
Agree that it is the lack of trust that is causing the current share price vis a vis gold.
Best wishes,
Prof
This is not a dig at anyone and I include myself in the 'we', but are we being schizophrenic?
We know that the previous management regime played the short game to maximise profits in the short run at the expense of the long term health of the mine. Quite understandably we look at that now with the benefit of hindsight, and enduring the current pain, and wish that they hadn't.
Conversely we now have a management regime that is taking a lot of pain in the short run both on the current mine and in exploration/ new mine feasibility studies and investment, for a better tomorrow. There is clearly a cost to this and we have seen that in lower ounces, higher clearance cost, higher exploration costs and the likely investment costs in a new mine - this is pulling the dividend down. In a few years CEY could be in a far stronger position with over 500koz per year from Sukari, other satellite operations increasing the Egyptian k.oz and an additional mine in Doropo. If that happens clearly the short term pain will have been worth it and the share price will be a lot higher (gold prices notwithstanding).
Perhaps the real nervousness at present stems from a lack of trust in CEY and its management, yet so far Hogan has broadly delivered what he has said. Should we perhaps be more optimistic and capitalising on share price just over £1 when gold is at c$2k. That is what I am pondering as I contemplate buying more.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Paul,
*** packet maths and with numbers from memory/ guessing:
Current estimates based on $1850 golds (guess). So $1950 is plus $100 and $2100 is plus $250.
Guidance for 2023 is, from memory 440-480k oz so I will take mid point at 460koz.
Ignoring that we are part way through the year (i.e. I am annualising the number) then we get:
- at $1950 an increase of $46M of which half goes to EMRA (this is approx as I think they now get a bit more) therefore $23M to shareholders which, with 1.156Bn share equates to about 2c per share therefore about 1.6p
-at $2100 the numbers are $115M therefore $57.5M to shareholders therefore about 10c per share or about 8.3p
As I say numbers done from memory and pretty quick so could be wrong. Would appreciate others checking my facts/ logic / calculations.
Best wishes,
Prof
Thanks Poors. BTW that was 'Which way do you mean' but I think you understood.
Best wishes,
Prof
Poors,
Which was do you mean?
Prof
Hi Sotolo,
Clever Mr Jones indeed. I do feel that CEY is a traders dream at present and a LT holder's nightmare.
Hope all is well.
Best wishes,
Prof
Gold above $1950 and share price below £1.00.
Hi Shatner,
Thanks for posting that link - good to listen to.
I agree that there are an enormous amount of positives and the current share price is therefore a real disappointment. I do however wish that Leon would not be purely 'sales' all the time and also talk more about the challenges and risks. I know that in some ways a CEO needs to be continuously upbeat however it needs to be tempered with not loosing credibility. Perhaps if JLP had a better track record of on-time and to cost deliver then I would feel differently however at the moment I am getting frustrated by what as see as too much spin. I also wish Leon could make his points more succinctly and with more data in his answers.
Maybe I am just frustrated by the current share price. What do other think?
Best wishes,
Prof
Thanks Northern Shark and Summit.
Do you know what contribution of revenue and profit comes from Rhodium at present please?
Thanks,
Prof
Hi Summit,
It was rare at 30,000 and a also rew years back when worth just a few thousand. I would rather it was rare and the former rather than rare and the latter!
I hope you are right that I should not worry but at the moment the trend is worrying me as it will significantly impact JLP's profits and therefore share price.
Best wishes,
Prof
SeisNav,
Nearly three times our current price; et us hope they are at least partly right!
I like what I heard today however I do worry about the PGM price with Rhodium in particular showing no signs of reversing its current downward trend.
Best wishes,
Prof
Last week I posted a link to Adam Hamilton's recent article on the majors and a 3 month old one he had done on the mid-tiers. He has updated his mid-tier one this week post Q422 reporting:
https://goldseek.com/article/gold-mid-tiers-q422-fundamentals
The article has large amounts of cut and paste from the previous one however the numbers in the table,and throughout the article are updated as is his thinking.
Worth a read!
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Sotolo,
A mighty strange world. As you said in your earlier post - not great results yesterday but nothing that was not already known. Hopefully the late fall yesterday and earlier today were both just the vagaries of triple witching day and we will move up nicely next week. Here's hoping!
Best wishes,
Prof
According to Kitco it has just closed at an ask of $1990:
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Steve,
You are welcome. Glad you found them useful.
Best wishes,
Prof
Gibbs,
You are most welcome.
I hope you are keeping well.
Best wishes,
Prof
I commend the following article that came out yesterday by Adam Hamilton:
https://goldseek.com/article/gold-miners-q422-fundamentals
It is on the majors however has some really great info that is relevant to CEY as well.
There is also a link to an article from Dec 22 on the mid tiers:
https://www.zealllc.com/2022/gtq322fn.htm
This includes a really helpful table with CEY in it which compares the key indicators including cost to mine and AISC.
Both are a fairly long read but worth the time I would suggest.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi AJones,
I have been thinking the same thing; $5M is a lot for just backing this into administration.
Let us hope that we are not naive.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Strummer,
Not surprising I guess. The potential difference here is that the underlying asset has significant value 'if' it can be exploited economically. The question for me, as previously put, is whether the $5M allows us to ramp back up to full production and, with copper at the current price, pay back our debt and get our head back above water, or whether it will just allow an orderly sell off to maximise debt repayment but with nothing left for shareholder. I take some comfort from the fact we are planned to restart operations tomorrow. It will be interesting whether that is full steam ahead or not.
Best wishes,
Prof