Member Info for ElProfessor

Hi Steve,
Interesting to hear that Bushy is on here now; he is the one poster that I have green boxed as a result of how he has been posting on the Jubilee page -I am far from alone in my filtering of him. My recommendation would be for you to do the same and certainly not engage with him.
I really hope that he doesn't disrupt the very civil and balanced Centamin page as he has done elsewhere.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Tony,
I would expect it to move even higher if gold can stay at this kind of level for long enough that the assumption in valuing CEY is that this is the new normal rather than a spike.
At this gold level we are looking at clearing c$600 over AISC, in fact all else being equal you would expect AISC to fall next year assuming CEY manage to deliver the step up to 500koz per year that they promise. Horgan so far has broadly delivered on the oz increases he has promised year on year.
At 500k oz even assuming no lowering of AISC but assuming gold holds then we get $300M profit per annum. From memory EMRA gets 52.5% so there is 47.5% left i.e. $142.5M which is c£115M. With 1,56M shares in circulation that equates to 10p per share. It is then a case pick you p/e. At 10 you get the current share price, at 15 you get £1.50.
There is a general downer on CEY at the moment that I think is overdone, unless you belief the current price of gold is a short term spike.
Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Quiggers.
Prof

Hi Quiggers,
That is one of the most helpful pieces of analysis that I have seen on these pages. Thank you.

I like the fact that you have been so conservative with Rhodium. Why have you gone the other way and gone so positive on Palladium please?

Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Artrader. Rhodium is the big unknown at the moment!

Hi Arttrader,
Why do you say 'Q4 with news will be amazing' in your post of 21 Mar please?
Thanks Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Raxfactor kindly posted the following link on the SLP page.
https://mailchi.mp/metalsfocus/precious-metals-weekly-5386878?e=bf06856695
which suggests that the fundamental remain strong. Where do you see Rhodium short and medium term?
Is there a level of Rhodium at which you would be tempted to bail, assuming other metals stay at current prices?

Thanks,
Prof

Hi Arttrader,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I noticed someone else, or maybe it was you, had previously mentioned the likely big sales adjustment come the quarterlies. I forgot to post that this morning but that is another factor that is holding me back. Do think the market has this priced in or will we see likely see a fall when it become explicit?
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
As I have just written on the SLP board, and the same applies here, the one thing that is stopping me buying more is the falling Rhodium price. If the articles suggesting that this is temporary are right and it turns then I will be very tempted to buy some more.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Mulder,
Lots to like I agree but the one element that is holding me back from buying more at this level, other than the fact that I already have a lot, is the falling price of rhodium which is now hovering just above $8,000. If that turns I will probably buy more.
Best wishes,
Prof

But the quantity of BushyTailed's post this morning have finally led me to filter him/her.

Hi Tibbs,

Thanks for your thoughts. I agree that at the time we did not know what Pardey et al were doing. My point was more that now that we do we condemn it while simultaneously objecting to the present regime investing for the longer term. As such i wonder whether we are not a little inconsistent.
Agree that it is the lack of trust that is causing the current share price vis a vis gold.
Best wishes,
Prof

This is not a dig at anyone and I include myself in the 'we', but are we being schizophrenic?
We know that the previous management regime played the short game to maximise profits in the short run at the expense of the long term health of the mine. Quite understandably we look at that now with the benefit of hindsight, and enduring the current pain, and wish that they hadn't.
Conversely we now have a management regime that is taking a lot of pain in the short run both on the current mine and in exploration/ new mine feasibility studies and investment, for a better tomorrow. There is clearly a cost to this and we have seen that in lower ounces, higher clearance cost, higher exploration costs and the likely investment costs in a new mine - this is pulling the dividend down. In a few years CEY could be in a far stronger position with over 500koz per year from Sukari, other satellite operations increasing the Egyptian k.oz and an additional mine in Doropo. If that happens clearly the short term pain will have been worth it and the share price will be a lot higher (gold prices notwithstanding).
Perhaps the real nervousness at present stems from a lack of trust in CEY and its management, yet so far Hogan has broadly delivered what he has said. Should we perhaps be more optimistic and capitalising on share price just over £1 when gold is at c$2k. That is what I am pondering as I contemplate buying more.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Paul,

*** packet maths and with numbers from memory/ guessing:
Current estimates based on $1850 golds (guess). So $1950 is plus $100 and $2100 is plus $250.

Guidance for 2023 is, from memory 440-480k oz so I will take mid point at 460koz.

Ignoring that we are part way through the year (i.e. I am annualising the number) then we get:
- at $1950 an increase of $46M of which half goes to EMRA (this is approx as I think they now get a bit more) therefore $23M to shareholders which, with 1.156Bn share equates to about 2c per share therefore about 1.6p
-at $2100 the numbers are $115M therefore $57.5M to shareholders therefore about 10c per share or about 8.3p

As I say numbers done from memory and pretty quick so could be wrong. Would appreciate others checking my facts/ logic / calculations.

Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Poors. BTW that was 'Which way do you mean' but I think you understood.
Best wishes,
Prof

Poors,
Which was do you mean?
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Clever Mr Jones indeed. I do feel that CEY is a traders dream at present and a LT holder's nightmare.
Hope all is well.
Best wishes,
Prof

Gold above $1950 and share price below £1.00.

Hi Shatner,

Thanks for posting that link - good to listen to.

I agree that there are an enormous amount of positives and the current share price is therefore a real disappointment. I do however wish that Leon would not be purely 'sales' all the time and also talk more about the challenges and risks. I know that in some ways a CEO needs to be continuously upbeat however it needs to be tempered with not loosing credibility. Perhaps if JLP had a better track record of on-time and to cost deliver then I would feel differently however at the moment I am getting frustrated by what as see as too much spin. I also wish Leon could make his points more succinctly and with more data in his answers.
Maybe I am just frustrated by the current share price. What do other think?
Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Northern Shark and Summit.

Do you know what contribution of revenue and profit comes from Rhodium at present please?

Thanks,
Prof