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Link to presentation that I just mentioned:
https://www.centamin.com/media/2853/cey-1h22-results_presentation_20220804_final.pdf
Morning 3Bear,
Thanks for confirming that is also how you saw it. Yes I agree that there was a real feel of 'progress on all fronts'.
I was particularly excited by slide 6 of the presentation which, if I read it correctly seemed to show a return to c500k oz per year as early as FY 2024 through Sukari, a rise to c700k oz by 2025, through Doropo and a peaking at 750k oz by 2028. The notes on that slide seem to suggest that the Sukari uplift is from underground improvement of both mining rates (1.5Mtpa to 1.875) and a 15% in reserve grade to 4.1 g/t.
Again I would be grateful to know if others understood this in the same way because if I am right in what this says then I would have expected more to have been made of it in the presentation by CEY as well as more focus to have been on it in the analysts' questions. Clearly if the intent is to get Doropo producing within 3 years then you can see why there is a need for major investment and why therefore MH is talking about CEY's capital structures.
Best wishes,
Prof
Cherry burn,
I agree. They are sounding like they are really getting a grip on the business and identifying some really exciting opportunities both for cost savings and expansion.
If I have just heard it correctly the combined cost saving of the solar generation facility (now built) and the connection to grid (sounds like it will be within a year and for a cost of c$10M) will be $40-45M. Does tie in with what others heard?
Exciting times to me!
Best wishes,
Prof
John,
Thanks, great analysis of why we do it!
Best wishes,
Prof
Mike,
I admire your resolve in sticking to a % target of funds invested in a single company.
I have been burnt a number of times by having ridiculous concentration in a 'dead cert'.
The broad deal I made with myself was no more than 25% of my portfolio in any fund and no more than 5% in any individual stock. I have never come close the 25% rule but have regularly exceeded the 5%. Recently I was putting more and more in an AIM stock and eventually limited myself at 15% out of respect for the principle of my rule even though I was convinced it was going to climb and climb. It didn't and bombed. I was saved only by my semi adherence to the rule of diversification.
Best wishes to you oh wise and disciplined one,
Prof
Sotolo,
Haven't topped up here either. Like CEY I am happy with THS as a company but worry about the macro headwinds. August is always a funny month but my fear is that Sep sees some serious selling as everyone returns from holiday and get nervous about a recession. THS/SLP/ JLP/ CEY , I am happy with all four companies for the long run but am unsure for the next 6months. Best wishes, Prof
Hi Sotolo,
Interesting. My decision was also influenced by the strong resistance level in the 1680s although in my case it stopped me selling, which I was very tempted to do out of worry about gold falling further. The other element that stopped me selling is that I really do think CEY itself is on the up provided the headwind of the gold price is not stronger.
Best wishes,
Prof
Looking at the mixture of timings, quantities and price it is difficult not to conclude that the large unknowns are sells. That means there have been 19M shares sold in less than a dozen transactions. That must be clearing one heck of a lot of downward pressure on the SP.
What do people think?
Best wishes,
Prof
Rhodium now showing up at 15400 on Johnson Matthey.
Rhodium now showing up at 15400 on Johnson Matthey.
Rhodium now showing 15250 so another rise:
https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management
Hi Hedged,
A now showing 15250 for rhodium:
https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management
Nice to see,
Prof
Remember that old joke: Two blokes are walking across open ground when suddenly they come across a tiger. One of them starts running and the other one shouts after him: 'You can't outrun a tiger' to which he answers back: ' I don't need to outrun the tiger - I just need to outrun you'
So what is the connection to Centamin?
Well to SteveJones' point, the SP is in the toilet. So what CEY needs to outrun in order to start moving up is the absolutely awful current expectations of the company. If it can perform mildly less rubbish than is expect then we will move up.
Martin Horgan definitely seems to be a 'tell us what we will deliver ' and then a 'deliver what I have told you' kind of guy. I really like the fact that once again there are no surprises and I think the market will too after so long when each update contained curve balls.
So far today the market seems to be responding positively.
Hi Hedged,
Not sure where Luna saw it but after they posted it yesterday I went to the site I usually use and it was already showing as up there:
https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management
Hope this helps,
Prof
LL2,
I agree with most of what you write. For me the key unknown is no longer the company (well other than costs but we will get those soon) but the price of copper. If this continues to plummet then the profitability could, in the short term be at risk.
Best wishes,
Prof
Tony,
Let us hope so. Gold at over $2k would certainly help our share price!
Best wishes,
Prof
MB,
You could well be right. To reiterate a point I have made previously about the mechanics of inflation:
If a price doubles from 100 to 200 you have 100% inflation. Thereafter if it stays at that enormously elevated price you have 0% inflation. If it falls back to 100 you have deflation. Now because inflation is calculated annually the effect is not immediate but the point still holds true.
Best wishes,
Prof
The following summary is taken from the BBC News Site:
US inflation has come in higher than expected at an annual rate of 9.1% in June (versus expectations of 8.8%), a new 40-year high, and up from 8.6% in May. The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, edged down to 5.9% from 6%.
A .3% increase above expectations, particularly when accompanied by a small fall in core, does not strike me as dramatic.
Gold now moving back up so hopefully the markets are feeling the same after the initial knee jerk.
Best wishes,
Prof
The following summary is from the BBC News site:
US inflation has come in higher than expected at an annual rate of 9.1% in June (versus expectations of 8.8%), a new 40-year high, and up from 8.6% in May. The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, edged down to 5.9% from 6%.
An increase in inflation just .3% above consensus does not strike me as much of a game changer particularly when you see that core inflation has gone down slightly.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi TrustIlie,
I would love for you to be right but I can't quite see it myself in the current risk off environment.
Best wishes,
Prof