Member Info for ElProfessor

Rhodium now showing 15250 so another rise:
https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management

Hi Hedged,

A now showing 15250 for rhodium:
https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management

Nice to see,
Prof

Remember that old joke: Two blokes are walking across open ground when suddenly they come across a tiger. One of them starts running and the other one shouts after him: 'You can't outrun a tiger' to which he answers back: ' I don't need to outrun the tiger - I just need to outrun you'
So what is the connection to Centamin?
Well to SteveJones' point, the SP is in the toilet. So what CEY needs to outrun in order to start moving up is the absolutely awful current expectations of the company. If it can perform mildly less rubbish than is expect then we will move up.
Martin Horgan definitely seems to be a 'tell us what we will deliver ' and then a 'deliver what I have told you' kind of guy. I really like the fact that once again there are no surprises and I think the market will too after so long when each update contained curve balls.
So far today the market seems to be responding positively.

Hi Hedged,
Not sure where Luna saw it but after they posted it yesterday I went to the site I usually use and it was already showing as up there:
https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management
Hope this helps,
Prof

LL2,
I agree with most of what you write. For me the key unknown is no longer the company (well other than costs but we will get those soon) but the price of copper. If this continues to plummet then the profitability could, in the short term be at risk.
Best wishes,
Prof

Tony,
Let us hope so. Gold at over $2k would certainly help our share price!
Best wishes,
Prof

MB,
You could well be right. To reiterate a point I have made previously about the mechanics of inflation:
If a price doubles from 100 to 200 you have 100% inflation. Thereafter if it stays at that enormously elevated price you have 0% inflation. If it falls back to 100 you have deflation. Now because inflation is calculated annually the effect is not immediate but the point still holds true.
Best wishes,
Prof

The following summary is taken from the BBC News Site:
US inflation has come in higher than expected at an annual rate of 9.1% in June (versus expectations of 8.8%), a new 40-year high, and up from 8.6% in May. The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, edged down to 5.9% from 6%.
A .3% increase above expectations, particularly when accompanied by a small fall in core, does not strike me as dramatic.
Gold now moving back up so hopefully the markets are feeling the same after the initial knee jerk.
Best wishes,
Prof

The following summary is from the BBC News site:
US inflation has come in higher than expected at an annual rate of 9.1% in June (versus expectations of 8.8%), a new 40-year high, and up from 8.6% in May. The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, edged down to 5.9% from 6%.
An increase in inflation just .3% above consensus does not strike me as much of a game changer particularly when you see that core inflation has gone down slightly.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi TrustIlie,
I would love for you to be right but I can't quite see it myself in the current risk off environment.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Mike,
If understand the point Ilja is making it is that they could have had the strip ratio at 12 but have chose to get ahead of the game hence are at 14.2
To put it another way. The pint in my pub cost £4. It still costs £4 but I have chosen to pay £5 which means the next one will only be £3 - hence I am ahead. OK perhaps not the best analogy but you get what I mean (I hope).
Thanks for the depth of the points you are making and Ilja, thanks as always for being so on the ball in your IR.
Best wishes,
Prof

Great performance by TB and the team and this month's results are everything we could have hoped for.
But copper price continues to deteriorate being down over 2% so far today. That is one heck of a headwind particularly when the market does not yet know the costs.
I would still hope to see at least the same rise as yesterday by COP today.
Fingers crossed,
Prof

Dubbs,

It looks like we should get more granularity on costs with the H1 Financials. The below is from the RNS:

In parallel with the operational improvements, there has been a concerted effort to optimise the new enterprise resource planning software system to provide cost analysis for improved control and decision-making. Our interim accounts for the six months to June 2022 will provide guidance on operating costs.

GGG,
Agreed. There are three things that give me confidence for Monday:
1. TB has been buying recently. Not enormous sums but not insignificant either.
2. He has continued to confidently assert the 7,000 which means he must have line of sight on some pretty good grades making it to processing.
3. Statistically we are due a positive break after so much s**t.
Best wishes,
Prof

FTSEinvestor,
Thanks for the correction. That is even better news then.
Best wishes,
Prof

Copper down c.2% from 3.57 but hovering around the 3.50. Clearly it would be nice to see it moving back up but will be good even if we can finish the week above that 3.50 level which would hopefully calm some nerves.
No RNS yet this morning so I guess we are most probably looking at Monday.
I was reflecting yesterday on last year's hedge. From memory it was at 3.7 (please correctly me if I am wrong). I also seem to recollect that it was a condition of one of the creditors/ funders. The reason I bring that up is that if they insisted on it, it was presumably because at that level of copper price it enabled RMM to be cashflow positive - obviously dependant on grade and output, but they were, at the time talking 1350 tpd with the aim of getting to 2% and they will have left, I suspect, a healthy contingency in all those numbers.. I like to think therefore that we will remain cashflow positive at the current copper price with annual production at 7,000 and should be nicely cashflow positive with next year's increase production even before the ore sorter.
Best wishes,
Prof

The trade pattern today looks very strange. Nothing but buys until 1001hrs (with one exception) and nothing but sells since.
The price is holding so makes we wonder if the trades are categorised wrong. Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
Thanks,
Prof

Unprecedented,

I agree.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Nonegspleeze,
My logic goes something like this:
-if they are non-Execs I would expect them to be highly experienced and successful
-if they are highly experienced and successful I would expect them to be reasonably wealthy
-if they are reasonably wealthy with great insight into a company with fantastic prospects then we might expect two non-Execs to hold more than £50k in shares between them.
So yes, while I am pleased that they have taken their entire remuneration in shares, I would like them to have more skin in the game.
Best wishes,
Prof

Good that 2 Directors are taking their annual fees in shares. Also good that they are doing so at a share price 25% higher than current market rate (26.74).
Slightly worry is the extent to which the company feels it is having to conserve cash - although we know cash is tight so all efforts are sensible. Second slight negative is that even after this both Directors still have remarkably few shares. Would be really nice to see more skin in the game by them however they are increasing so still good.
Not sure this is enough to influence the SP either way. However combined with TB's purchase and our major supplier taking shares in lieu of payment we are seeing a whole group of people, seemingly in the know, take more of a stake in the company, and all at higher SP than current valuation.
Best wishes,
Prof