Member Info for ElProfessor

One concern for me is the share buy-back. If the share price is a this level with the amount of share's being bought daily by SLP as per the RNS does it not suggest a drop once that buying stops?

Also I would like to think that by London opening POG might be close to the 1836 or London close. Not always be often it seems to do that regardless of what it does when London is closed.

Interestingly if you look at gold in GBP you get a very different picture. We are still hovering around £1,500 per ounce which is historically very good.

Possetwolf,
That ties in with my understanding too. I would add that more stopes gives more options as to which stopes and therefore which grades to access at a point in time.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Analytical,
The cynic in me says ' we have been told the mill capacity if 1350' however we have not yet seen it perform at that average over a month. I really hope that we will get there however don't know if May is a bit soon for that. We also need to factor in that we will get 'unexpected' down time so will always lose the odd day or part of day. Now if they can get to an average of 1350per day in the month even after any down time that would be awesome!

Hi Aubery,
Do we know whether the power upgrade and therefore plant outage went ahead in Apr?
Best wishes,
Prof

Apologies the last part of my post at 11:00 got cut off (thing I exceeded the characters allowed). What is should have read in the last line was:
'and with grades of 1.6%, 1.7% and 1.8%, shown in that order after the colon on each line'.

PART 2-
Applying the 97% for recovery that gives the following (numbers after the colon are respectively for 1.6%, 1.7% and 1.8%:
1100: 529, 562, 595
1150: 553, 588, 622
1200: 577,613, 650
1250: 601, 639, 677
Perhaps over-optimistically I have assumed 31 full days of work in May but based on the above I would say 600 tonnes of copper in the month is within reach.
Key to this however is the grade an no more black swans!
I hope there are not stupid calculation errors in my numbers but please point out if there are or if you think any of my assumptions are widely out.
Best wishes,
Prof

If I had a choice between having to sort out the milling and the mining I would opt for the former every time. So the good news is that RMM seem to have now got the mine in a shape where it can produce enough ore to meet the current capacity of the mill. Toby B was explicit in the last RNS: 'Our mining is now at a rate that can support the designed plant throughput...' Looking at the mining numbers they were 35,535 dmt for last month. Now is you take 30 days that is only 1,185 dmt so below the milling capacity of 1,350 however there is a stockpile of 22,500dmt at the mill so it may be they have not mined at max. The daily dmt mined is also on an up having been 1,073 in Mar, 1,091 in Feb and 813 in Jan (assuming every day in the month was worked). So I will chose to take TB at his word that the mine is no longer a restricting part of the process which is an ENORMOUS achievement.
So now let us turn to the mill. The output of copper to sell is broadly dependant on 2 factors: how much ore you feed in and the grade of copper in that ore (there is also the recovery % but that seems to be stabilising at 95-97% so I will leave that out other than for calculations.
In Apr the RNS tell us that 30,195 dmt were milled with 9 days at or below 800 dmt because of the crusher issues. Noting that the RNS says at or below 800 I have run calculations with an average dmt for those 9 day of 800 and of 750. With the former that means 7200 dmt were mined in those days leaving 22999 tones to be mined over the other 21 days of the month. That would therefore be 1095dmt. If they did not work Easter day that would be 20 days therefore 1150 dmt p.d.and if they also did not work good Friday that would be 1210dmt. With the later (750) that means 6750 dmt were mined in those days leaving 23445 tones to be mined over the other 21 days therefore 1116 dmt p.d, if 20 days 1172 and if 19days 1234.
It is important that we do not know:whether the days above 800 dmt were all full days or whether it was a gradual ramp up to full production, whether rented crusher was used in lieu of the normal crusher for some of those 21 days and if so how its capacity compared, and we do not know whether for the half of May when the rented crusher will still be on site whether it will be possible to use it in parallel with the normal crusher and therefore boost throughput.
So turning now to grade. TB tells us in the RNS: '... we will now optimise the feed grade to the mill'. Is is therefore hopeful that we are going to be significantly above the 1.46% grade of Apr which was due to working a specific zone for reasons other than grade, and at least at the 1.6% of Mar. We might get to 1.7% and perhaps even 1.8%. Now this being mining they might have the option, increasingly likely with the increasing number of stopes, of chasing to mine even higher grade but I will hold off on that upside scenario.
So for calculations I will do it with 1100, 1150, 1200 and 1250 dmt per day and with grades of 1.6%,

... for RMM to have a positive share price today?
Well leaving aside the broader market sentiment and of course all in my humble opinion, the RNS itself was broadly as expected with the notable exception of the grades and the RNS explains that as:
The grade was lower than initially planned in April due to mining out of planned sequence to install additional ground support in the Upper Footwall Zone. Grade is expected to pick up in May.
Had the grades been 'normal' then everything in the RNS would have been in line with my expectations with some positive upside like the daily throughput peaking above 1400 which shows us what it could be with the wind behind us.
So why the reaction? Well firstly we were unlucky with the backdrop of stock market sentiment today/ at present which amplifies sentiment. But why is the sentiment in RMM so poor today to start with? I have scratched my head on that and looked inward to try and find an answer - in other words why am I just a little bit nervous today rather than rushing out to buy more. The answer on my personal account, and I extrapolate from that to the market, is that 'there is always just one more thing'. Now we need to keep this in the context of 'this is mining'. Normally companies report quarterly at most and the monthly reporting, while probably right in the current context and certainly called for by many on this board, does exacerbate the unpredictability that would otherwise smooth out over a longer period.
So ultimately do I/ the market trust TB? Well I will now leave the market out of it and answer just for myself. I don't know TB other than having seen him on the market calls. But it strikes me that he has had a mountain to climb and step by step, with a few slides backwards, he has been making it slowly upwards: mine pumped, infrastructure invested in and refreshed/ upgraded, 4 stopes now running, hedge cleared, financing sorted several times (I would have preferred once), new team in place, COVID navigated, mining now sufficient to deliver 1350 per day and just being held back by the extraction part of the process, extensive further drilling to find what grades are where which in turn will inform the mine plan...
I have no doubt forgotten a few and I am sure others can fill in for my oversights.
But the point is this -TB's track record at Rambler strikes me as pretty impressive and I think he can be trusted to navigate the final steps to the key base camp of the 1350 output. Now that will not be the end of the journey and he needs to get us to base camp soon but on what I see I trust him to do that and from there I trust him to continue leading us upwards toward the future camps and eventually the summit.
Obviously all of this is just my opinion and I would be really interested to hear views that are either in accordance or divergence with mine.
Best wishes on what I know has been a difficult day particularly for those with large holding,
Prof

Two reasons mining the low grades strikes me as logical:
1. If you have got to mine them in order to enable other essential work to be done (which is what they basically said) then it makes sense to do that and have a low output month now rather than be on an upward 'confidence in the company' trajectory and then have that cratered by a poor month.
2. If you are going to have a poor month of grades then it makes sense to do it when you are constrained as to how much ore you can convert into copper - i.e. this month because of the crusher issues.
Onwards and upwards in May I suspect (or is that hope?)
Best wishes,
Prof

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y2SIIeqy34

'Why Won't They Ever Learn'.
Marlene Dietrich, Peter Paul and Mary, The Kingston Trio - they all did great versions but Pete Seeger wrote it.

MatesRates,
Thanks for sharing your thinking and numbers. Very helpful to see.
Best wishes,
Prof

Strummer,
I think MB sums it up well in saying that with the shares you have accumulated you are going to do well if/when this takes off.
The key question is always but what if it doesn't - how much of a difference would it make to my finances and my life.
Fingers crossed for all of us. I really do think this will come good but none of use can account for black swans.
Best wishes,
Prof

Strummer,
Sounds like you are growing as an investor!
I am in the same boat as you. I am sorely tempted to increase my already large holding, given the current price, but that would defy all laws of diversification. So I daily fight the temptation and so far have avoided it. If these falls further I will praise my wisdom and no doubt if/ when it surges I will curse my lack of conviction.

There are some films that you have watched a few times and although you know it will turnout OK, it doesn't make the bit you are watching any less scary.
I can't help feel the same about Centamin. I am pretty confident it will turn around but that doesn't make the current level of production and therefore AISC as well as the ensuing reaction to the SP any more pleasant to watch.
Let us hope that this is indeed the nadir and that hereon in we are sailing to a better place.
Best wishes to all,
Prof

Hi Antharry,
I suspect that you are right that it is several periods of delivery that will see more people pile in.
I also think Xenor is right that most people on yesterday's call were already in, some quite heavily.
Bought a few more yesterday after the RNS and am now pretty topped up here however very confident this will rerate - just not sure when.
Best wishes,
Prof

Morning Sotolo,
Let us hope indeed that CEY is starting a long rise up. You have called it right on the way down so am hoping you are equally accurate now for the up.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi DG,
I would love for your explanation to be right. However the person asking the question on risk followed up with 'well tell me the top three things that keep you awake at night' and there was not an answer on that either. I get that TB will be very busy getting the mine in shape however thinking about what could go wrong and planning accordingly is, for me, part of that.
Best wishes,
Prof

Clearly lots of good news in yesterday's call. Not so concerned about the CEO not quoting an AISC figure for production as you need to sort out your accounting assumptions first and with a new CFO she will no doubt be working on that, aided by the new finance system.
On reflection I am very disappointed that the CEO could not only name the top three risks for the company but did not appear to 'get' the question. If a CEO is not thinking in that way then it is worrying. Hopefully I am making too much of this but it has been knowing at me since the call.