Member Info for ElProfessor

Just done a dummy buy and sell both for £20k.
Can buy that amount at 33.5 and sell that amount at 33.34.
Very small spread and very liquid.
For my part topped up first thing this morning in a few tranches paying between 32.49 and 32.98.

Sotolo,
I agree that pessimistic comments on this boards are key to balance. It is very easy for us all to end up rebreathing each other's overly optimistic air. After all most people who are on a company BB hold that company and are therefore (presumably) positive about it.
Let us hope that we have many more days like today. Gold just at few hundreds of a cent off $1900 a short while ago.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Thanks. Not sure about the wise though. That would have seen me out when we were over £2.
How are your investments going? I am taking quite some pain on FRES although fortunately did not put too much in. HOC is a car crash although made enough there on short term trades before it dipped badly and was not particularly exposed at the time. SLP getting better but still down. THS about level. RMM level pegging(ish) but expecting great things. JLP the golden child.
Are the investments enabling the build yet?
Best wishes,
Prof

...
Gold is up spiking because of Russia/Ukraine but more fundamentally because of inflation now being acknowledged. With the regards to Russia, regardless of whether they invade or not the relations East/West are going to be in the doldrums for many a year. Even short of war there are a whole spectrum of interventions that both East and West can to, short of war, that will cause serious economic damage from gas pipeline energy restrictions to freezing of assets and of course cyber disruptions. With regards to inflation well what did we expect with the amount of money printing over the past few years.
Now turning to Cey I think Hogan is slowly getting their house in order. He is taking the hits early (ish) in his tenure which is what a good turnaround CEO does. I was hoping we would be starting to see daylight this year so was shocked by AISC up over $1400. I think by next year we should really see a difference but my worry is that I could be wrong and it could be another year still.
So in short yes I think the opportunity is there and the market will cotton on an rerate this. But no (if I can be disciplined) I won't buy anymore.
Obviously just my slightly rambling views and would really like to hear what some of the other posters think.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Early Bird,
That is the million dollar question. Although with inflation running at current levels a million dollars is not what it use to be!
A few years ago you would not have put any money on Cey being well under a pound with gold just short of $1900. Then again a few years ago you would not have put money on the monumental mess that previous management have left current management to clear up.
I am very tempted to buy some more however:
1. I have rather a lot already
2. What if gold falls back before the market moves Cey back up?
On balance I suspect we should have a good year.

'... and I need your opinion, Nonsense, for the colour of leather interior for my new Rolls'.

Northern Shark,

A very good point.

Best wishes,
Prof

Jolly,

Duh! And thanks.

That is always the trouble when figures are bigger than the number of fingers I have.

Best wishes,
Prof

Love the following from the RNS:

Overall, the investment in capital expenditure over this period totalled 19.3 million (ZAR 414 million) with a further £ 17.7 million (ZAR 380 million) invested in acquisitions, leaving cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period under review standing at £ 21.7 million (ZAR 466 million), compared with £ 19.6 million (ZAR 384 million) at the year ended 30 June 2021.

So to rephrase that. In the half year £40M spent on capital investment and acquisitions and still cash and equivalents go up by £1.1M in 6 months.

Not bad! Not bad at all!

Hi Xenor,
I agree.
The important point I take away from today's RNS is that RMM have completed a number of extra steps on their journey to getting the mine fully operational, resilient and profit making. With each step taken the risk to us as shareholders, or to any future shareholder, reduces. Related, although slightly distinct, the risk to a lender reduces. It follows that , provided RMM deliver to plan, that any future palings or loans, will be on better terms.

Page 19 of the Rambler Presentation outlines their 2022 strategy. Last section is as follows:

Later in 2022, when the business is operating at full
production (Q2) and further de-risked, access additional funding for:
? Development
? Exploration
? Projects

Personally that seems sensible.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Tony,
Sorry presume I was not clear. Meant AISC is horrible next year (2022) and was referring to thereafter when I wrote 'reasonable' (2023-onwards).
Does that make sense?
Best wishes,
Prof

Dasut,

'When they get back to mining Sukari rather than restructuring Sukari'.

Beautifully put and in my mind the cornerstone of the investment case in CEY.

Yes we know that the previous regime maximised the today at the expense of investment for tomorrow.
Yes we know the current regime is addressing that.
Yes we know it is expensive to do that.
Yes we know CEY are ahead of plan with the restructuring.
Yes we know CEY have aspirations to get back to 500k oz per year.

We know next year will have horrible AISC as a result of the restructure and that if gold falls substantially we will be generating little or no positive cash-flow.

To me the outlook for gold, with inflation where it is, is excellent and I would expect it to move up not down. As such I am another one who will sit here and draw the dividend, keeping my fingers crossed that they can afford to keep it close to current levels, and wait for the restructure to be complete. We should then have a mine with great reserves, a company with no debt and an infrastructure that will enable sustainable mining at c500 oz per year with reasonable AISC.

Hope I am not being too optimistic.
Best wishes to all,
Prof

SJ,
Thanks for your kind words. Particularly appreciated as I greatly rate what you post.
Best wishes,
Prof

There are a lot of posts since the RNS slamming management.
For those who haven't tried it - running a large organisation is difficult and doing a turnaround is harder still. I have no experience of doing so in the mining sector but I suspect it is harder again.
Management are balancing endless variables here with very limited control on a good number of them.
Personally I think that they are doing a good job. Many people have been talking about this multi-bagging so lets pause to ponder that. Why might a share multi bag? Because there is significant risk. Why might you invest - because you think you have a better appreciation of that risk reward than the market. What makes you think that? If it is nothing more than the positive musings of some anonymous posters on a bulletin board then you are going to lose out more often than you luck in.
For my part I think the market is misjudging the risk reward and there is a lot more reward and less risk than is being priced in. When will that valuation turn? Probably very quickly once the key risks disappear. But if I can invest at this price it is because those risks are currently still there.
And I might be getting my assessment of risk reward wrong and the market might be getting it right!
Expecting to be a lot better off by mid year on this share but aware that is not a given and I could be down. That is investing!
Best wishes to all,
Prof

Lucan,
There is not much to say at the moment. Sit tight and wait.
Best wishes,
Prof

1. I agree
2. We buy shares because we think the market has mispriced them. We would of course love to see the market realise the error of its ways the day after we have bought however that is rarely the case. If we feel the market has mispriced why worry that it is a slow learner and takes longer than we might like to adjust to fair value provided it does.
3. The market tends to overshoot on the way up and the way down.

Tharisa,
Once again thank you so much for your proactive approach by posting and responding on this board. I have not seen any other company do it even half as well.
Also love the tone that is factual but not sounding like an accountants briefing.
Keep up the great work please.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Siko,
Great to see you pop up here and wonderful to hear of the great work that you and the family are still doing in Egypt. Sorry however to hear of the extent to which it continues to be necessary.
Very best wishes,
Prof

HI Tiverton,

Try SLP rather than SLP.GP.
That is where the chat is.

Best wishes,
Prof