The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
This was due to start at 1400hrs today. Did anyone join and if so was there anything of interest?
Best wishes,
Prof
HOC performing broadly in line with FRES and CEY this morning so it looks like the results are being taken as neutral.
I would hope that as the 'fear' factor that the results could have been bad dissipates that we start to move back up relative to the others.
Best wishes,
Prof
Morning Sotolo,
Thought you might be on here early digesting the Q1 figures.
On the plus side we have sale price realised for gold in Q1 up about $80 per oz on last year and silver up a whopping $10 (guess that takes into account the $27 hedge). So financials should be good.
Combine that with gold being back above $1785 this morning and silver above $26 and I would expect a good opening for us.
Best wishes,
Prof
Me too Sotolo. Was doing quite nicely on HOC's legendary volatility but it is being a bit too stable of late. Got 40,000 out at between 257 and 265 on the temp silver blip which was very lucrative having bought them at around 210-220. Also had a a few 10 pence gains. Latest batch not yet doing so good. Bought 20,000 at around 222p and while I then sold at 214 and rebought at 210 and also bought a further 20,000 at 202, I am still down for the moment. Pretty comfortable it will turn again.
Would be nice to see CEY burst higher.
Best wishes,
Prof
Thank you Lynny.
Best wishes,
Prof
They weren't sold after hours they were reported after hours. That would mean that the 5.1M has already been sold. If that is the case then we might see an increase in the SP next week now that the overhang has gone - unless of course MMs have bought and now have a lot of shares on their books to shift. But then again they don't buy to then sell at a loss.
So all in all I suspect there will be little to no impact from the 5.1M going forward.
Best wishes,
Prof
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Thanks Razor.
I suspect there are unlikely to be any key announcement in the short term as they would have been classified as price sensitive hence MH would not have been able to buy.
Darren,
You would think so but then again in later summer everything was looking so positive for CEY that i was expecting 300 by year end. Oh well, only out by a factor of 3.
Health warning about my complete inability to predict this share on the table, I would expect 130 by the summer this time.
Best wishes,
Prof
Mr Brains,
Like you I have increased (this morning in my case) and bought a couple more tranches of 10,000 shares, both in the low 103s. Difficult to see this falling further, although of course gold price is a key risk as it a fall across the board in equities which would probably hurt us short term before recovering (like last year). Lots of upside and of course the juicy CEY dividend should propel this higher. Like you a LT holder so well aware of Centamin's ability to disappoint when all looks good.
Best wishes,
Prof
Thanks Dasut. I was hoping you would be one of the people who would share their very knowledgable view.
Strange reaction overall today!
Best wishes,
Prof
Darren,
Now a bit up. However overall I would say the market seems to be staggeringly indifferent to the results. Maybe the call at 8.30 will pepping things up a bit.
Let us hope for a move up over the day.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Sotolo,
Agree that for the most part this seems as expected so hopefully the market will give CEY some credit for that rather than dropping any more bombshells as per last autumn. Good also to see record revenues albeit the result of record average gold price.
The one worry area, although don't pretend to full understand it or the implications is in the
Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Statement RNS. I think what it is saying is that current reserves are being reduced albeit the financial impact is neutral to positive:
'Whilst enhancing value, there is a reduction of approximately 35Mt of medium-grade ore within the improved open pit representing approximately 0.75-0.8Moz from the estimated reserves. These ounces were originally planned for extraction at the end of mine life according to the previous mine plan, following significant waste-stripping and at the long-term gold price assumption used for planning of US$1,450/oz. The reduction in revenue from the change in reserve ounces is more than offset by the reduced waste stripping costs. Additionally, we believe that there are other targets identified in the resource base, which have the potential to be mined sooner and more profitably. The new modelled pit shell is robust down to an assumed gold prices of US$1,350/oz, resulting in a limited difference in mine life.'
They also appear to be indicating optimism about some future reserves.
I would be interested to hear the opinion on this of those more expert on mine development and exploration.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Lukee,
I hold via HL and have never had to do anything for the dividends to be paid to me in GBP so I guess they must do everything required.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Siko,
Thanks for posting. Wise words as always.
Have a wonderful Christmas too.
Best wishes,
Prof
Morning Market,
Lovely to hear from you, as always, and please don't worry about the previous post.
I think you are right ref no immediate ST news but with this share's recent performance just having no more bad news is good news. Notwithstanding significant moves in the gold price, for me if mgmt can just deliver what they have now laid out, and even more so if they can do so with slight higher prod and lower AISC and all ahead of schedule, then we should see a slow rise in 2021, accelerating in the second half as we get closer to the end of the pain period. As someone put it the other day, with a 5-6% dividend, current investors in Centamin are being paid to wait.
With regards to director buys I guess the window between news is not big so they buy when they can, provided they think the price is good. I do wish our new CEO would put his hands a little deeper in his pockets and buy a significant slug of shares at the price. That would give me real confidence.
Keep well and have a wonderful Christmas.
Very best wishes,
Prof
Thanks all for your responses ref Leon and the options. I was very nervous given all I could find ref shares was the 2013 purchase which Smose also mentioned. If he has been taking options in lieu of salary and has 30million of them then I can see why he would not have bought shares as well even if he really believes in the company. Between Colin and him they do indeed to have the significant 'skin in the game' that you would expect to see if the story looked as good from the inside as it did from the outside.
Thanks again to everyone for your kind responses.
Best wishes,
Prof
I can see Colin is holding loads of shares but can't find a reference to how many Leon currently has. Does anyone know this info please?
Thanks,
Prof
Thank you all for your response to my question ref downside risk. It is really helpful to hear what you have all flagged and why each one is not unduly bothering you. I guess the one that worries me the most from what has been listed is the patent expiring at the end of the year. I take the point ref it will take competition a while to learn who to capitalise on it but is there not a risk that large miners, for example Barrick, would invest the time and effort to master it given the returns it could generate for them?
Not withstanding the above am definitely going to buy some more JLP. My only hesitation is ST timing given the awesome increase in the past week.
Thanks again to everyone for taking the time to share your views and knowledge.
Best wishes,
Prof