Member Info for ElProfessor

Darren,
Now a bit up. However overall I would say the market seems to be staggeringly indifferent to the results. Maybe the call at 8.30 will pepping things up a bit.
Let us hope for a move up over the day.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Agree that for the most part this seems as expected so hopefully the market will give CEY some credit for that rather than dropping any more bombshells as per last autumn. Good also to see record revenues albeit the result of record average gold price.
The one worry area, although don't pretend to full understand it or the implications is in the
Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Statement RNS. I think what it is saying is that current reserves are being reduced albeit the financial impact is neutral to positive:
'Whilst enhancing value, there is a reduction of approximately 35Mt of medium-grade ore within the improved open pit representing approximately 0.75-0.8Moz from the estimated reserves. These ounces were originally planned for extraction at the end of mine life according to the previous mine plan, following significant waste-stripping and at the long-term gold price assumption used for planning of US$1,450/oz. The reduction in revenue from the change in reserve ounces is more than offset by the reduced waste stripping costs. Additionally, we believe that there are other targets identified in the resource base, which have the potential to be mined sooner and more profitably. The new modelled pit shell is robust down to an assumed gold prices of US$1,350/oz, resulting in a limited difference in mine life.'
They also appear to be indicating optimism about some future reserves.
I would be interested to hear the opinion on this of those more expert on mine development and exploration.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Lukee,
I hold via HL and have never had to do anything for the dividends to be paid to me in GBP so I guess they must do everything required.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Siko,
Thanks for posting. Wise words as always.
Have a wonderful Christmas too.
Best wishes,
Prof

Morning Market,
Lovely to hear from you, as always, and please don't worry about the previous post.
I think you are right ref no immediate ST news but with this share's recent performance just having no more bad news is good news. Notwithstanding significant moves in the gold price, for me if mgmt can just deliver what they have now laid out, and even more so if they can do so with slight higher prod and lower AISC and all ahead of schedule, then we should see a slow rise in 2021, accelerating in the second half as we get closer to the end of the pain period. As someone put it the other day, with a 5-6% dividend, current investors in Centamin are being paid to wait.
With regards to director buys I guess the window between news is not big so they buy when they can, provided they think the price is good. I do wish our new CEO would put his hands a little deeper in his pockets and buy a significant slug of shares at the price. That would give me real confidence.
Keep well and have a wonderful Christmas.
Very best wishes,
Prof

Thanks all for your responses ref Leon and the options. I was very nervous given all I could find ref shares was the 2013 purchase which Smose also mentioned. If he has been taking options in lieu of salary and has 30million of them then I can see why he would not have bought shares as well even if he really believes in the company. Between Colin and him they do indeed to have the significant 'skin in the game' that you would expect to see if the story looked as good from the inside as it did from the outside.
Thanks again to everyone for your kind responses.
Best wishes,
Prof

I can see Colin is holding loads of shares but can't find a reference to how many Leon currently has. Does anyone know this info please?

Thanks,
Prof

Thank you all for your response to my question ref downside risk. It is really helpful to hear what you have all flagged and why each one is not unduly bothering you. I guess the one that worries me the most from what has been listed is the patent expiring at the end of the year. I take the point ref it will take competition a while to learn who to capitalise on it but is there not a risk that large miners, for example Barrick, would invest the time and effort to master it given the returns it could generate for them?
Not withstanding the above am definitely going to buy some more JLP. My only hesitation is ST timing given the awesome increase in the past week.
Thanks again to everyone for taking the time to share your views and knowledge.
Best wishes,
Prof

Love what I am seeing with JLP having bought in at 7.90 and seen a beautiful and quick rise since then.
Seriously tempted to buy some more but am made nervous by the fact everyone is so euphoric about the company but there is no mention of the downside risk. Clearly price of PGM is a risk although also an opportunity if it rises.
What are the barriers to entry to other companies doing the same thing? Does JLP own the IP on the technology they are using or do they at least have exclusivity agreements or does someone else who could licence it to a competitor? What downside other downside risks does anyone see?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Best wishes,
Prof

Marmot, ,
And the actual numbers have come in worse than that: 245k vs the expected 478k.
Should be good for gold as the dust settles.
Best wishes,
Prof

I am saddened to see the abuse that Sotolo is getting on this board including from some poster who I respect.
Opposite views are to be welcome even and perhaps in particular when they may be frightening.
Please let us all revert to the courteous and mature nature of conversations that have traditionally been the mark of this board.
Best wishes to all,
Prof

Will the share price fall tomorrow on the news? Possibly.
Do I read anything sinister into the sale? No. If I owned 50% of a £1.2bn company that was worth less than half a bn earlier in the year then I would consider taking some money off the table. The current share price is the result of POG and that could fall. The fact that gold has fallen from 2070 to 1770 in a few months shows how volatile it is. He will still own over third of the company.
Best wishes,
Prof

Sold last week at 110 because was nervous on gold's movements and also on today's announcement. Have bought some back this morning on the basis of the neutral to good RNS. Still worried about's gold's trend but like the clear and controlled tone of the RNS.

Hi Ant,
You are welcome.
I think the price of gold is key at the moment.
02 Dec will also be interesting.
My expectation is that, leaving movement in gold aside, we should see a good move up in CEY in the second half of 2021 provided they show good progress in Q321 figures and make positive noises about 2022 being well on the way to a return to 500k (475k or above I like to think would do it).
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Ant,
Real back of a fag packet numbers but I think they go as follows:
$1700 gold price (just using your number)
$1250 AISC (think is what CEY are calling for next year
$450 profit per ounce
415k oz to be mined (taking mid-point of their forecast)
Generates $186M profit
Profit is split 50/50 with EMRA means $93M left.
If Cey distribute 30% which is there stated minimum then than is $31M for us shareholders.
Happy to be corrected by anyone who sees any glaring mistakes in the above workings accepting also that I am doing all numbers from memory so could be wrong on some.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Freedom,
I am afraid that we don't know what the dividend will be for the coming year. It is fairly safe to say that the market does not expect 12c as with the current exchange rate of £1 = $1.33 that would indeed be a 9% yield.Unless the market expected disaster thereafter then the share price suggests a lower expectation.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi ASME,
Welcome to posting on the Board. I agree it is well informed and, generally, professional and friendly place.
You did very well selling out in August.
Provided 02 Dec has no further disappointment and subject of course to the price of gold staying strong, which I believe economics suggest it should, then I share your views ref the future. I would expect the rest of the year to see a weak SP with it gradually recovering strength throughout 2021 as Centamin hit quarterly production figures. I would expect most of the 2021 rise to be later in the year once the heavy stripping is done and quarterly production ceases to be so anaemic. 2022 will depend on how far off the 500k p.a we are. Management have already said it will take 3 years to get back to it but a 2022 of around 475k would be good.
Sotolo would agree wholeheartedly with your point ref the high 2021 AISC hurting us, a view I share too.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Razors,
I am here!
Good news and an interesting week in the offering.
Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Sotolo. Anything in particular that makes you feel gold is in for a big fall or is it just nervousness because of the size of your holding here?
I too am nervous that it could but the size of the money printing of late, deficits and national debts suggest, that the economic forces should keep gold strong.
Best wishes,
Prof

Sotolo,
Thanks for your thoughts. Like you (I think) I believe gold should hold good or even increase but worry it might not.
Perhaps that is normal particularly if you have a lot of money tied up in miners.
Best wishes,
Prof