According to KITCO there was a strong support line at 1927 so great to be through that for the weekend. They are showing the next one at 1950.
Seem the Democrats and Republicans are narrowing their differences for a further stimulus in the US. Would not be surprised to hear that announced in the next week. That could be the boost we need for gold.
Hi Supercharger,
Thanks. And yes I have plenty still in here for the ride back up. Delighted to see a weekend close at just over 1930. Here's to back to the 2000s and beyond. Great to hear you are doing well with FRES and HOC.
Good luck with the caring responsibilities.
Best wishes,
Neil
Hi Supercharger,
I don't disagree with you at all. I see CEY moving up from here. I am just over concentrated here as I keep buying on pull backs, failing to sell when it gains and then buying more when it pulls back again. I bought 10,000 more at 147 to replace 10,000 I sold on Friday at 180 in the slide and then 10,000 earlier in the week at 157. Today was just a day trade because I felt we were not keeping pace with gold. Never intended to take the risk of holding over the weekend so delighted to have made £2k on this undervalued but highly volatile share.
Best wishes,
Prof
Just chickened out and sold the other 25,000 at 163 given gold fell back to 1925. Still expect 164 today but happy with my 2%. Trying to learn not to be greedy. Hard lesson!
Just sold 30,000 shares bought earlier today for a 2% gain. Still holding 25,000 bought today will almost certainly sell before the bell not because I expect bad things next week but just risk control given the already too large main holding. Hoping for the SP to crawl closer to the earlier 164 given gold is not knocking on the door of 1930.
Gold pushing up against what was the long held high at $1923, prior to this summer's explosion. Will we take it out.
CEY sluggish relative to price of gold today so have brought some more as a ST play.
Hi Razor,
Thanks for posting. BTW don't think they have put a target price. I read 'Buy at 154' as being a recommendation to buy and 154 being the price at the time of writing. That ties with the price before yesterday's rise.
Best wishes,
Prof
Thanks Tibbs. Fingers crossed for upward momentum!
Best wishes,
Prof
Just bought back the 10,000 I got out on Friday morning at 179.8 for 157.25.
I had bought yesterday too but that was in a SIPP not ISA.
Fingers crossed that Gold marches upwards and through the 1923 resistance rather than takes another dive.
Best wishes,
Prof
Marmot,
Would that not be nice to see. And if Martin Horgan really believes in CEY one would hope that he might indeed put some of his significant wealth into play here, particularly at the current price.
Liked your comment yesterday about letting the price come to you. Something I always plan to do but then fail to execute. Looks like you have got a great reentry price here.
Keep commenting please; your posts are always insightful.
Best wishes,
Prof
Morning Sotolo,
Like me, I think, you are holding rather a lot of these (oh the irony of new posters thinking you are trying to deramp). It is such a horrible feeling when you get an even like Friday's and even more so when it then keeps dropping the following day. Feels so much better once we are moving back up, even when slowly which so far today it is not.
Let's hope for continued positive momentum. I can't see what black swan will hit next, but then again is that not the definition of a black swan?
On the downside I see a fall in POG. On the upside a rise in POG, which I consider more likely given the state of the world, a licence announcement, 21 Oct being reassuring and saying the fall in prod is not as much as originally feared, positive exploration noises, further director purchases (new CEO presumably will also have to buy).
Fingers crossed,
Prof
And the SP has gone up a further 3p in the time it took me to type the previous comment. Must start typing longer messages!
Trading at around Friday's close. Has the rot stopped or is this a brief bounce before another leg down.
Bought 10,000 yesterday at just under 150. Was tempted to buy more but, as I have previously said am far too concentrated in CEY. Must remember to sell this tranche on a good rise, rather than doing my usual trick of holding on until the next drop and then buying more again.
Nice to see the Chairman buying 100,000. His contract will also certainly compel him to acquire a certain number of shares so he is now doubt delighted to get this price dip to do so. Nevertheless I am delighted that he has. It gives confidence to the market and it also gives confidence to me. Not convinced he would have put £150k of his own money on the table if there was anything untoward beyond Friday's statement.
Best wishes,
Prof
Morining Sotolo,
Like you I feel better once the big falls are out of the way. Regardless of the absolute value of the share (well not quite) it always feels better when the trend is up rather than down and clearly a steep downward trend is worse of all. Let us hope that is it now done!
Had a thought on a walk yesterday ref our different calculations of the lost profit. I used as a proxy the full 70,000 Oz reduction x the POG at $1900 to give $1330/2 (EMRA) = $66.5M loss of profit to share holders. I think this is right and no further AISC adjustment is made for mined gold. The reason being is that I am counting the mined oz at the full cost rather than just their profit. In other words with a previous AISC of $900 profit would be $1000 on those ounces at POG of $1900. By discounting the full $1900 I am discounting the profit of $1,000 an ounce and assuming the cost element of $900 is still being incurred on the other oz mined. Clearly this will significantly push up the AISC on those oz but the loss in profit should be the $66.5M. Does that make sense or am I missing something?
If right then a loss of quarter of market valuation for a fall of $66.5M profit in one year does seem a little drastic.
Best wishes,
Prof
Thanks Mike. Definitely agree about keeping it nice.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi UKInvestor,
I suspect that might be overoptimistic until there is more certainty (although hopefully I am being too pessimistic).
The RNS on Friday said:
'Centamin will release its Q3 Quarterly Report on 21 October 2020, and further updates will be provided at that time. Furthermore, the Company will publish the preliminary conclusions of the LOA review by year end.'
Hopefully the bottom has been reached but I suspect many will be tentative about buying or selling too much ahead of 21 Oct.
Best wishes,
Prof
There was support back in June at the 146 level. That seems to have held in today's latest rout. Hope that is the bottom.
Best wishes to all,
Prof
Hi Thunderer,
While I do not know them personally both Tiger and Sotolo have posted for many years on this board. Sometimes they are positive and sometimes negative but always considered.
Sotolo and I are often in agreement about the prospects of CEY. At the moment he is more negative than I am on the impact of the latest production issues although in the past he has more often been right than I am in these cases. The market hates uncertainty and Cey has just thrown up a ton of it; plus it has a bit of a track record for this so is getting hit extra hard.
I remain confident in gold increasing, hopeful for the licences and excited about CEY's prospects. Provided that the production issues are limited to this year then I am confident the share price will go up in the near future from here. However if it was a slam dunk, either way, we would all be rich.
Best wishes,
Prof
PLEASE NOTE THIS ARTICLE IS FROM JULY
I am posting it as a reminder of why we are invested here, notwithstanding yesterday's news and SP reaction. (I did smile wryly though at the line that production issues appear to be behind us:
https://www.ft.com/content/85526b4e-3a53-4b3d-9702-07bd52322880
Enjoy the weekend everyone and try not to dwell on our mercurial share.
Best wishes,
Prof