Member Info for ElProfessor

Hi UKInvestor,
I suspect that might be overoptimistic until there is more certainty (although hopefully I am being too pessimistic).
The RNS on Friday said:
'Centamin will release its Q3 Quarterly Report on 21 October 2020, and further updates will be provided at that time. Furthermore, the Company will publish the preliminary conclusions of the LOA review by year end.'
Hopefully the bottom has been reached but I suspect many will be tentative about buying or selling too much ahead of 21 Oct.
Best wishes,
Prof

There was support back in June at the 146 level. That seems to have held in today's latest rout. Hope that is the bottom.
Best wishes to all,
Prof

Hi Thunderer,
While I do not know them personally both Tiger and Sotolo have posted for many years on this board. Sometimes they are positive and sometimes negative but always considered.
Sotolo and I are often in agreement about the prospects of CEY. At the moment he is more negative than I am on the impact of the latest production issues although in the past he has more often been right than I am in these cases. The market hates uncertainty and Cey has just thrown up a ton of it; plus it has a bit of a track record for this so is getting hit extra hard.
I remain confident in gold increasing, hopeful for the licences and excited about CEY's prospects. Provided that the production issues are limited to this year then I am confident the share price will go up in the near future from here. However if it was a slam dunk, either way, we would all be rich.
Best wishes,
Prof

PLEASE NOTE THIS ARTICLE IS FROM JULY
I am posting it as a reminder of why we are invested here, notwithstanding yesterday's news and SP reaction. (I did smile wryly though at the line that production issues appear to be behind us:

https://www.ft.com/content/85526b4e-3a53-4b3d-9702-07bd52322880

Enjoy the weekend everyone and try not to dwell on our mercurial share.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Saw you said you had sold this morning in the 180s. Did you get them all out or just some?
Ref the cost I was assuming the cost would stay the same in real terms not per ounce so I was deducting the 60-75k OZ lost at the full value of gold at $1900. So thought I was being conservative. Do you not think so?
Best wishes,
Prof

HJ72,
Agree completely. Less than a year ago the SP was in double figures. If you had offered us a SP knocking on the door or 170 back then I suspect most of us would have bitten your arm off.
Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Rebess. I also noted the RNS ref Youssef's share sale of a month ago. Given that this has clearly been known of for a while it does suggest the FSA should take a good look.

Hi Rebess,
But to what end?
Thoughts?
Prof

We are now the FTSE's biggest faller only by a margin of 1300 basis points (13% absolute).

Starting to feel genuinely pleased because I am now only down a third of a pound for every share I hold. Goes to show how everything is relative!

TSSZ,
Agree it is oversold at 20% and thought about buying at 160 but am too concentrated already. Plus this could get more oversold over the next few days before correcting. On this news think 5% may be overoptimistic not for the fact but for the uncertainty which CEY does not like given recent history.

impacts my ability to type correctly!

CEY has done 375k ox YTD with an expected further 70k in Q4. I would guess that it worse case so let us say 75k which takes us to full year of 450k. Previous FY guidance was 510-525k so the new figure is down 60-75k on estimates. Assuming all costs are constant (some reduction for less produced but some increase for remedial works) with POG at $1900 that means we are down $114M-142M which after profit share would be $57-$71M to shareholders. Depending on the severity of the situation this should be a one off hit and arguable not even that as the high grade is still there to be mined albeit with perhaps higher extraction cost.
Not particularly pleased to be down 20% and not particularly pleased that I keep making the same mistake of being over concentrated in CEY as I buy, correctly, on overdone falls but then fail to see at at good price. Correctly took about a third of CEY holding of the table at 220 but then bought back in at 210 in anticipation of continued rise in gold, positive news ref licences and reasonable Q3 figures.
Best wishes to all long suffering LT holders and to those of you who are more recent comers to the party, welcome to the fun of CEY.
Prof

First message didn't seem to post so paraphrased it in a second only to see the first one did. Think I was consistent.

Morning Sotolo,
Not quite relaxed but certainly not worried. I see no reason for the current fall in POG and lots of reasons for it to be high. Our SP is good considering gold at c1850. Feels like we are poised to move strongly upwards provided gold goes back to where it has been hovering for the past 2 months. Was even tempted to buy more just now. Might still do it.
Best wishes,
Prof

Morning Sotolo,
To say I am relaxed might be a slight overstatement but I see no reason for the current fall in gold other than 'stuff' and noise.
SP holding up remarkably well for POG around 1850. I kind of get the feeling we are poised to explode to the upside provided gold recovers to where it has been hovering for much of the past two months.
Nearly bought some more just now. Might still do it.
Best wishes,
Prof

... but with a market correction and CEY bucking the trend on the back of a rising gold price and we could be in the FTSE 100 within the year:
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
At the beginning of the month we were ranked 139th with a SP of 211.

High and Dry,
I moved to AJ Bell a few years from HL ago because they were so much cheaper. To my intense annoyance they then hiked their charges within a few months. On a number of occasions I wanted to transact and was not able to do so in the volumes required. I decided that the delay was costing me far more than the charges to switched back to HL. Because I have a reasonable size portfolio I was then able to get reduced rates with HL. They are still expensive but I can't fault either their IT or their knowledge and customer focus. Very happy to have gone back to them.

Hope that helps,
Proff

Sorry in my 1947 post yesterday I meant 'undervalued' not 'overvalued'. Typos happen but when you write the opposite of what you mean that is pretty bad!

Tibbs,
Thank you so much for your kind words. The trouble with being out, even partially and for a short period, is the fear of missing out. This company can move so fast that in a few days you can miss out on a 10% rise. Of course the opposite is true, it can also fall 10% in a few days, but I can't help but feel, as I think many of us long-suffering, old-timers do, that we are on the cusp of greatness for this share. Remember when the golden flip-flop party was set for 200p? That is a distant memory now and, perhaps greedily, I am eyeing 250 before year end and if not then certainly by when 2020 results are announced in Q1 next year. From there I am looking for 300p. The only issue is the longer the timescale you are looking at this share over, the less certainty around the price of gold - significant adverse movement there could wipe out all the positive developments of increased production (dare we dream of 600k plus from Sukari alone), some good licenses in the latest Egyptian bid, an end to the endless court case and the beginning of development in Africa. For the time being however I see nothing to suggest gold will do anything but continue its merry upward trend in the face of endless money printing and global macro-economic weakness.
Diamond encrusted golden flip-flop party anyone?
Best wishes,
Prof