Member Info for ElProfessor

Hi Sotolo,
You are right I should have added in my explanation to Sense on the CEY board that AISC was up. I was in a rush though and took that as given with a falling production. I should have been explicit as I agree with you.
What do you make of HOC's rapid 5% rise yesterday afternoon with a broadly flat gold and silver price and then a fall back today to where it was before that 5% increase?

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sense,
The reduced forecast production for Q420 on the back of the slide caused the drop from c200p to 147p then recovering to c160p. There was then a reduction in production forecast for 2021 to 415-430k which caused the drop from 160s to 130s. The route cause it insufficient stripping over the past few years which is now going to take a few years to remedy with production not anticipated to get back to c500k for 3 years (I assume that means 2023). The drop from 130s to low 110s is based on the fall in the price of gold with CEY getting hit worse than most presumably on the current lack of confidence in the company. Life of Mine review due on 02 Dec which we are all waiting for with bated breath. Exploration licences for new areas in Egypt also likely to be announced anytime soon.
Hope that helps,
Best wishes,
Prof

Good Morning Mr Bond,
I don't know why you have such an issue with Sotolo. He has been posting on this board for many years. He sometimes views the share price as being overvalued and sometimes undervalued. Given that in the last few years that share price has oscillated between 30p and 230p I think it is fair to say the true value of the company, not withstanding large movements in the gold price and other factors, such as the current production issues, has not always been accurately reflected by the market.
If all this board becomes is a grouping of people all saying that the share price will go up then we might as well pack it in and go home (or turn off our computers and use the time more productively). I have a very large holding in CEY. I had an even larger holding when we were at 230 which I did not sell because I was positive about gold and expected us to move to 250p this year and 300 next year. I did not sell when we dropped to 147, then recovered to 164, because the 'slippage' that caused a drastic reduction in Q420 production seemed contained and time bound. In short I expected 2021 to be back to normal and the share price to follow. The major reduction in 2021 production that was unveiled along with Q3 production worried me because I no longer knew what the mine was offering. I sold out significantly between 147 and 130. I have since bought some of those back in the 120s although sold a tranche of those yesterday on the gold price collapse. I might buy some back today if gold continues to look more solid. I worry that the life of mine review due to be unveiled on 02 Dec might contain some future horrible news however hope that it won't. I also hold out hope that we will hear positive news about new licences in the near future.
In short I don't know what is going to happen. If you pushed me on it I would say CEY share price will remain weak for the remainder of this year and early next but then recover strongly through 2021 as the production meets the reduced targets and positive progress is made towards getting the mine back to 500k oz p.a. from 2023 onwards with a forecast for 2022 not too far off that figure. If gold makes good progress too in 2021, which I expect it to do as the economic impact of the current round of money printing (I think we call it QE nowadays) starts to be felt, then that would also help the share price.
Sotolo does not know what is going to happen either. He posts his views, not to ramp or deramp, but to share them and generate debate. I, for one, welcome that.
Best wishes and good luck with this wild share that is Centamin.
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Thank you for sharing your thoughts so comprehensively; you sum up the factors that will dictate the direction of theme in gold really well.
Interesting to see the Dow fall off at the end of the day. Would not be surprised to see Europe open lower as they pull back from today's meteoric rise and also take their lead from the Dow's late adjustment. If gold/silver looking reasonably steady in the morning then might delve back in on HOC. Let us see what the morning brings.
Best wishes,
Prof

Tiger, Anapa,
Thanks for your thoughts. Interesting that you both come down on the 'more downside' side. MT I am pretty confident gold will go up but I do worry that ST you could both be right.
For this evening, for the moment, gold seems to be holding above 1950 and silver above 23.60. Wonder what the morning will bring.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Tiger,
I think a lot of us aged badly today!
Best wishes,
Prof

I would be interested in other people's views. Is this a temporary pull back and therefore an opportunity to pile in or is this the beginning of a significant move down in gold and silver and HOCs SP will follow.
Starting with the latter: the excellent vaccine news suggest that COVID will be gradually rolled back with, presumably the most vulnerable vaccinated by early next year and most of the UK who want it over the rest of 2021. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated we can lift most COVID restrictions and accept that whether others get it most should be no more than badly ill. The meteoric rise in gold has been since March 20 when COVID really hit the scene outside of China and with COVID rolling back gold will in turn roll back.
The case for the former - it has always been known that at some stage COVID would be overcome. The date was increasing being pulled forward and those in the know were increasingly talking of dates before the end of the year. Gold is at its current level not because of COVID per se but because of the catastrophic economic impact of COVID. That damage, both through massive inflation of national debt and massive reduction in GDP, is already done. As such gold will stay the place to be and rise from here.
I think I am in the second camp however we could have a bumpy time short term. If the resistance level around 1850 breaks we could revisit the 1700 for a while before the economical fundamentals see gold move sharply upwards.
Where do others come down in their assessments please?
Best wishes,
Prof

Sotolo,
And given how well you have done on HOC this week given your holding, I guess you can afford to have not made the money on CEY. At least at 129 you have no loss.
Prof

Sotolo,
Someone on the CEY board (think it might have been MARMOT) said I wait for the stare price to come to me. With PM mining shares it does indeed seem that it will eventually come back to you. Obviously there is no guarantee and what it does in the mean time, and whether you could have made more money riding it up, is another matter.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Glad to hear your switch worked so well.
Yes I bought in on Monday. A slightly smaller purchase than I would otherwise as I wanted to get a feel for the share. Bought 20,000 shares at average of 222. Sold them out yesterday afternoon at 262 thinking they had gone up too much for the day relative to the movement in gold only to see them go up to 270. Still 40p or nearly 20% in 5 days is something I would happily do more often. Also bought 50,000 more in CEY at 126 only to see the do pretty much nothing as gold rose. Will buy more HOCS on the a pull back if it occurs. More troublesome decision will be whether to buy more HOCS if there is no pull back.
Best wishes,
Prof

Sotolo, Tiger, Supercharger,
Good to see you all on this board. Thanks for your thoughts and answers on my ponderings.
I am very much sat on my hands at the moment wondering which way to jump. Even looked at Barrick earlier!
All economic fundamentals suggest gold and silver should stay strong but then again, when have the markets done what we expected of them. I guess my fear is that, ignoring the fundamentals of HOC and CEY, it will not take much movement downwards in gold to really hurt the SP of the two companies. We entered the year at c$1500 gold and while COVID has since made the situation worse, the market already knew the debt levels of major economies were pretty unsustainable. I wouldn't expect us to return to $1500 in the ST but $1700-1800 could happen.
With CEY I worry about 02 Dec although it would have to pretty awful news to take us down much further at this POG. I suspect current SP reflects a total loss of confidence in CEY. As such given we have new mgmt if they can outline a credible vision and then deliver on both that and the bread and butter of production, we could see a return of confidence and return of SP growth. If I had to bet I would say 2021 will be a good year for CEY albeit from a pretty low baseline (and I feel we could fall a bit further from here before moving to an upward trend).
HOC I can't see what is so bad in the Q3 results to drive the SP down or is it all due to silver moving downward? I take the point that HOC had limited free float and so SP reacts sharply to events. Could a move of silver back towards $25, certainly not unlikely, see the SP touching on 250p again, which would be c15% upside?
Musings, musings,
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Especial,
Not a situation that I have come across however I would presume that current shareholders would get it as when they bought the share they bought all risk and benefits at that point in time.
What exactly do you mean by missed dividend though?
Best wishes,
Prof

Morning Goldgnome (or afternoon for you),
I know you are bullish on gold, as am I with the exception of a possible ST dip if we see a replay of March. But what is your thought process on CEY, as I know you are very heavily invested here? The slide was unfortunate but not catastrophic in itself but the 2021-22 production cuts, announced with Q3 results, were both serious in themselves and indicative a poor previous management. Do you worry that there could be other hidden issues, such as lower mine life or a weaker mine plan, that will come to light in the future, say on 02 Dec, or do you see nothing but upside from the currently rather gloomy SP position?
I know we have bounced around significantly before and been back to a double figure SP when we all thought that was long behind us. In those instances the issues seemed shorter term (LHBR anyone?) but are the present ones potentially more serious or just ones that will take a little longer to resolve?
Best wishes,
Prof

Sotolo,
Many thanks. Have taken a few more off the table over at CEY although not put it back on the table here yet.
Messy day in the markets and think we could see quite some more which may well, in the short term, hurt gold and silver which will in turn hurt miners.
Given all the shortcomings of previous management over at CEY I do have a worry that it could extend to drill results being less positive than previously trumped and that being highlighted on 02 Dec. Do you see that as a possibility?
Best wishes,
Prof

Cowichan,
Thanks for letting us know Tibbs is OK. Please do pass on why best to him.
Best wishes,
Prof

Sotolo,
Have now read you response. Thank you very much that is incredibly helpful and one I will reread a few times before coming to a decision as to whether to invest in HOCs. I might sell a few more CEY and move that across to HOCS to at least diversify the company, if not the gold risk. I do have a niggling worry with CEY that, given the previous regime seems to have completely oversold just about everything, they have oversold the exploration results and 02 Dec will also expose that. Against that I can't help but wonder whether the new CEO is doing that 'new CEO' thing and kitchen sinking it.
BTW what about HOCS and dividend? Do you think it will increase now debt is pretty much paid off?
Finally, and reference where you started your post, I do feel for you getting the 'decamping' abuse on top of your own financial loss. As is so often the case, you were proved right, albeit I know you would have preferred to be proved wrong as you would have been better off. Like you I struggle to see why people have such a problem with opinions different to their own, surely having our sometimes overconfident views tested is to be welcome in investing.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Thanks for the response. Have just seen it and not read it yet but I was worrying about you, as I was about Tibbs, given neither of you have posted much since the bad news at CEY. Hope all is OK and you have managed to find a way through with the house.
Will now, with much anticipation, read you response.
Best wishes,
Prof

Tibbs,
Like many others here I hope you are OK.
Do let us know all is fine even if you are not in the mood for a full post.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Razors.
Being range bound would be a start. For the past few days we have been doing lower highs and lower lows.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi DJRYAN,

What is it that is making you feel optimistic about the forthcoming announcement?
I usually am but seem to keep having my hopes dashed. I thought the Q3 one was going to say the slide was fully contained and the production impact on Q420 was going to be a lot less than anticipated with matters back to normal for Q121. How wrong was I?
Could do with reason to return to optimism.
Best wishes,
Prof