Tiger, Anapa,
Thanks for your thoughts. Interesting that you both come down on the 'more downside' side. MT I am pretty confident gold will go up but I do worry that ST you could both be right.
For this evening, for the moment, gold seems to be holding above 1950 and silver above 23.60. Wonder what the morning will bring.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Tiger,
I think a lot of us aged badly today!
Best wishes,
Prof
I would be interested in other people's views. Is this a temporary pull back and therefore an opportunity to pile in or is this the beginning of a significant move down in gold and silver and HOCs SP will follow.
Starting with the latter: the excellent vaccine news suggest that COVID will be gradually rolled back with, presumably the most vulnerable vaccinated by early next year and most of the UK who want it over the rest of 2021. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated we can lift most COVID restrictions and accept that whether others get it most should be no more than badly ill. The meteoric rise in gold has been since March 20 when COVID really hit the scene outside of China and with COVID rolling back gold will in turn roll back.
The case for the former - it has always been known that at some stage COVID would be overcome. The date was increasing being pulled forward and those in the know were increasingly talking of dates before the end of the year. Gold is at its current level not because of COVID per se but because of the catastrophic economic impact of COVID. That damage, both through massive inflation of national debt and massive reduction in GDP, is already done. As such gold will stay the place to be and rise from here.
I think I am in the second camp however we could have a bumpy time short term. If the resistance level around 1850 breaks we could revisit the 1700 for a while before the economical fundamentals see gold move sharply upwards.
Where do others come down in their assessments please?
Best wishes,
Prof
Sotolo,
And given how well you have done on HOC this week given your holding, I guess you can afford to have not made the money on CEY. At least at 129 you have no loss.
Prof
Sotolo,
Someone on the CEY board (think it might have been MARMOT) said I wait for the stare price to come to me. With PM mining shares it does indeed seem that it will eventually come back to you. Obviously there is no guarantee and what it does in the mean time, and whether you could have made more money riding it up, is another matter.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Sotolo,
Glad to hear your switch worked so well.
Yes I bought in on Monday. A slightly smaller purchase than I would otherwise as I wanted to get a feel for the share. Bought 20,000 shares at average of 222. Sold them out yesterday afternoon at 262 thinking they had gone up too much for the day relative to the movement in gold only to see them go up to 270. Still 40p or nearly 20% in 5 days is something I would happily do more often. Also bought 50,000 more in CEY at 126 only to see the do pretty much nothing as gold rose. Will buy more HOCS on the a pull back if it occurs. More troublesome decision will be whether to buy more HOCS if there is no pull back.
Best wishes,
Prof
Sotolo, Tiger, Supercharger,
Good to see you all on this board. Thanks for your thoughts and answers on my ponderings.
I am very much sat on my hands at the moment wondering which way to jump. Even looked at Barrick earlier!
All economic fundamentals suggest gold and silver should stay strong but then again, when have the markets done what we expected of them. I guess my fear is that, ignoring the fundamentals of HOC and CEY, it will not take much movement downwards in gold to really hurt the SP of the two companies. We entered the year at c$1500 gold and while COVID has since made the situation worse, the market already knew the debt levels of major economies were pretty unsustainable. I wouldn't expect us to return to $1500 in the ST but $1700-1800 could happen.
With CEY I worry about 02 Dec although it would have to pretty awful news to take us down much further at this POG. I suspect current SP reflects a total loss of confidence in CEY. As such given we have new mgmt if they can outline a credible vision and then deliver on both that and the bread and butter of production, we could see a return of confidence and return of SP growth. If I had to bet I would say 2021 will be a good year for CEY albeit from a pretty low baseline (and I feel we could fall a bit further from here before moving to an upward trend).
HOC I can't see what is so bad in the Q3 results to drive the SP down or is it all due to silver moving downward? I take the point that HOC had limited free float and so SP reacts sharply to events. Could a move of silver back towards $25, certainly not unlikely, see the SP touching on 250p again, which would be c15% upside?
Musings, musings,
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Especial,
Not a situation that I have come across however I would presume that current shareholders would get it as when they bought the share they bought all risk and benefits at that point in time.
What exactly do you mean by missed dividend though?
Best wishes,
Prof
Morning Goldgnome (or afternoon for you),
I know you are bullish on gold, as am I with the exception of a possible ST dip if we see a replay of March. But what is your thought process on CEY, as I know you are very heavily invested here? The slide was unfortunate but not catastrophic in itself but the 2021-22 production cuts, announced with Q3 results, were both serious in themselves and indicative a poor previous management. Do you worry that there could be other hidden issues, such as lower mine life or a weaker mine plan, that will come to light in the future, say on 02 Dec, or do you see nothing but upside from the currently rather gloomy SP position?
I know we have bounced around significantly before and been back to a double figure SP when we all thought that was long behind us. In those instances the issues seemed shorter term (LHBR anyone?) but are the present ones potentially more serious or just ones that will take a little longer to resolve?
Best wishes,
Prof
Sotolo,
Many thanks. Have taken a few more off the table over at CEY although not put it back on the table here yet.
Messy day in the markets and think we could see quite some more which may well, in the short term, hurt gold and silver which will in turn hurt miners.
Given all the shortcomings of previous management over at CEY I do have a worry that it could extend to drill results being less positive than previously trumped and that being highlighted on 02 Dec. Do you see that as a possibility?
Best wishes,
Prof
Cowichan,
Thanks for letting us know Tibbs is OK. Please do pass on why best to him.
Best wishes,
Prof
Sotolo,
Have now read you response. Thank you very much that is incredibly helpful and one I will reread a few times before coming to a decision as to whether to invest in HOCs. I might sell a few more CEY and move that across to HOCS to at least diversify the company, if not the gold risk. I do have a niggling worry with CEY that, given the previous regime seems to have completely oversold just about everything, they have oversold the exploration results and 02 Dec will also expose that. Against that I can't help but wonder whether the new CEO is doing that 'new CEO' thing and kitchen sinking it.
BTW what about HOCS and dividend? Do you think it will increase now debt is pretty much paid off?
Finally, and reference where you started your post, I do feel for you getting the 'decamping' abuse on top of your own financial loss. As is so often the case, you were proved right, albeit I know you would have preferred to be proved wrong as you would have been better off. Like you I struggle to see why people have such a problem with opinions different to their own, surely having our sometimes overconfident views tested is to be welcome in investing.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Sotolo,
Thanks for the response. Have just seen it and not read it yet but I was worrying about you, as I was about Tibbs, given neither of you have posted much since the bad news at CEY. Hope all is OK and you have managed to find a way through with the house.
Will now, with much anticipation, read you response.
Best wishes,
Prof
Tibbs,
Like many others here I hope you are OK.
Do let us know all is fine even if you are not in the mood for a full post.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Razors.
Being range bound would be a start. For the past few days we have been doing lower highs and lower lows.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi DJRYAN,
What is it that is making you feel optimistic about the forthcoming announcement?
I usually am but seem to keep having my hopes dashed. I thought the Q3 one was going to say the slide was fully contained and the production impact on Q420 was going to be a lot less than anticipated with matters back to normal for Q121. How wrong was I?
Could do with reason to return to optimism.
Best wishes,
Prof
Fingers crossed!
Cowichan,
I would be ecstatic with that. Do you think it is likely?
Hope you are feeling a bit better after the horrible last week (and the one 2 before that).
Best wishes,
Prof
Might be a bit much to say gold is looking strong but it is certainly looking OK this morning having just pushed through 1905.
Gold miners however: FRES, CEY, HOC are all down this morning.
Morning Sotolo,
I am starting to take a look at HOC where I know you and a number of the others on this board are also invested.
I was interested to see that forecast for this year was 422k gold equivalent oz after producing 477k in 2019. I appreciate that in light of COVID and the resulting production halts earlier in the year the forecast is now 280-290 which was reconfirmed last week in Q3 prod results. I also note that HOC is approx 20% less market than CEY at current share prices.
Looking only at the next year, it seems CEY and HOC could be producing broadly similar gold/ gold equivalent oz. Have HOC given any insight as to what they expect to produce? HOC have traditionally paid a very low dividend which I get while they have been paying down debt. Given their debt is almost repaid is there any indication whether profit will now go to dividend or exploration/ CAPEX? Finally what do you make of the medium to longer term prospect of the two companies?
Would appreciate you informed thoughts. (Have posted on both boards as relevant to both companies and not sure where you look more).
Thanks,
Prof