The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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No one can predict events but anyone can interpret charts- so if charts are correct, why isn’t everyone millionaires??? I say it’s cos events make SPs and charts just reflect the events …
Trading algos now are so complex- charts are old hat these days - the tech is way too advanced now
Yes but even if it takes years people say the backfill was there- trading on this and charts is simply madness - I trade on events, these are then reflected in the charts- it’s events that make and drive SP, the charts simply reflect the events.
Steve
Some news will come along and the probability of backfilling by Friday is high. Sometimes it happens asap and occasionally it is a few days later. The news is likely to be pro USD.
Glad all went well Tony.
But you now have to replace the phrase "always gets backfilled..." as gold rose and didn't fall at the US opening, and is still up as I type.
Hi folks
Had to take my wife into hospital and just got back with problem solved. Yours truly on cooking,nursing and slave butler duties for a few days at least.
My rationale for gold is that we have a large gap in the charts between $1989 and 2003. Gaps in the gold chart always get back filled if those gaps are with USA market. We are getting closer to May and I have lost count of the times it has been a bad month for gold. I will still hold Shanta and HOC for different reasons. Centamin is very promising for Q3 and Q4.
What's the chance of 99p was the bottom,and now we start the 5th Elliott wave up ?.I posted before that i didn't know if 100p was the bounce point,or Naively suggested 90p a possibility ( 90p would have penetrated wave 3,so a stupid suggestion from me).
Hope you guys out there can put me right, as i see that you're very smart and don't tolerate nonsense posters like on Boohoo !!!!.Or for that matter that OTHER site !!!!!!!!!.
What is your rationale for an expected pull back at the US open ?
Very odd timing Tony- S&P, Nasdaq, DJ all up on the futures market- US CPI on Weds... but each to their own.
I was back in earlier this morning after selling last Thurs- (don't like being in miners over a long 4 day timeframe, in case something happens...). I sometimes drop half before major info like CPI so it's quicker for me to react either way- but I can see no logic for pull back when the USA opens- of course I could be wrong, but I work on logic.
GL.
ISA retained, trading account sold off. Expecting pull back when USA opens. Positions in Centamin and AAZ to be taken in the summer. Holding on other miners. Wish all luck. For trading accounts CGT limit is £6,000 in UK for 2023/24.
Peter Williams was also a co-founder of Independence Group (now about $11b), was directly involved in setting up Papillion (5-6 m ozs, Fekola deposit) in Mali and Gryphon Minerals (5 m ozs, Wahignion in Burkina Faso) and is involved with African Gold in Cote Ivoire ...https://www.listcorp.com/asx/a1g/african-gold-limited/news/pegmatite-discovery-on-agboville-project-cote-divoire-2827441.html
as they say, been around a bit
TheGnome
Major European stocks registered gains ahead of Tuesday's session as investors awaited the March retail sales data for the Eurozone scheduled for release later today. Throughout the week, markets will assess March inflation data from Germany, Spain, and France.
The DAX gained 0.66% at 7:11 am CET, while the CAC 40 rose 0.72%. The FTSE 100 expanded by 0.60%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed by 0.59%. Both the euro and the pound increased by 0.22% against the dollar at 7:22 am CET to sell for 1.08848 and 1.24094, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / ND
Keywords: EUROPEAN MARKETS
After a “year on the ground” with the combined Elemental Altus Royalties, STEVEN J. POULTON, pictured here, and FREDERICK BELL are assaying an expansive folder of metals projects across Africa, the Americas, Canada and Australia.
The two, Steven, 46, and Frederick, 36, say they might transact an Egypt gold project via spin-off, mirroring a recent Morocco spinoff into a small London pub-co explorer. Or a clean spinoff into a new equity (shell). Or via a joint venture or multiple JV.
Elemental Altus ELE ELEMF controls something like 2,000 square km of concessions/licenses in Egypt. I just talked with the two, who are based in London.
“We are discussing the overall strategy with our company,” Steven says. "It's a timely question."
If the Arabian-Nubian Shield, with Egypt on one side and Saudi Arabia on another, and large miner Barrick all over the place, catch investor heat as precious metals prices (we believe) continue their climb, anything with an EGYPT address probably would appreciate.
Centamin Plc, a $2 BILLION U.K. gold miner, is the marquee miner in EGYPT. Elemental Altus also has marquee status of a sort in Egypt: La Mancha Fund, owned by Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, is an ELE investor.
Elemental Altus in addition to Wadi Dubur in EGYPT's Eastern Desert, has licenses in Ethiopia’s Tigray (where I have not been in 8 years), among other ‘Shield’ properties.
In Egypt, Heye Daun (also pub-co Osino Resources OSI OSIIF in Namibia) has kept his private Lotus Gold active with 10 blocks, 1,700 square kilometers, in the same area as Elemental Altus: Eastern Desert.
Pictured here: Lotus (named after the Egyptian white lily) drilling at site.
More to come. I have been purchasing ELE shares.
---------------------------->>>>
My Thoughts:
I have not been purchasing ELE shares.
Interesting to note Elemental Altus Royalties CFO David Baker was the key person behind Centamin's defence team from the hostile takeover attempt by Endeavour Mining while he was working at Tamesis Partners in London. https://www.tamesispartners.com/
Now he's working for an Endeavour associate company with Naguib Sawiris as the main investor in both... Mr Sawiris is persistent and if he can't beat you he'll get you to join him, eventually
And Peter Williams (now a non-executive director at Elemental Altus ) was a founding director of Ampella Mining and was present during the exploration/delineation of both the Konkera/Batie West deposit and the Doropo deposit - the latter still under consideration by Centamin
https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidbakermining/
https://www.elementalaltus.com/investors/presentation/
https://us5.campaign-archive.com/?e=[UNIQID]&u=d3a1417c9ff35564e0ddc31e9&id=0c6bea06bb
..have to say, although market are close today and we could have a completely different reaction comes tomorrow.....but look at what effect it has had a little rise in USD index on POG...now futures down almost 1%..
Interesting to see if this move is design to catch out stops, or is a more meaningful move downward...
I believe is more the second option.
Yes a pull back definitely on the card.
With no economic indicator till Wednesday, looks like market is picking up where it left on last Thursday....one or more Fed rate rise expectations .
I am just trying to figure out when POG $2000 level (ish) resistance will become support. For a mid long term investment view on miners, imv valuations have reached high levels if POG remain below the $2000 and yet many catalyst on macros are pushing for much higher POG... Best trade with caution right now.
Expecting a pull back to tests 50ma at circa 1900 in the short term, expecting a circa 2030 handle on spot, come the June contracts Expiry.
A chance to add or day trade.
...indeed as I am writing, USD index just shot up past 102, meaning that for gold price is not going to be so straight forward for a rise in short terms...
IMO POG needs more of changes in the geopolitics economies, than simply a correlation between USD, rates and the Fed,
unless bond yields don't get back down to very low levels (need a new QE..)
Thanks for the link.
I find it difficult to understand the validity of below statement from Proactiveinvestors article, but overall I agree that gold has many positive catalyst coming its way...Would be interesting to figure out which single catalyst can greatly affect POG.
Surely the BRICS countries possible creation of a new currency pegged to gold price should be one to note.
But on Proactiveinvestors article when it says:
As yields on bonds decrease and interest rates rise, the gold price is also likely to rise, as the dollar purchasing power and consumer standard of living decrease.
=============
Now normally when Fed. rate rises also bonds yields rises (not decrease). But i am guessing the writer is assuming that we are going to get CPI rising with the Fed. pausing rate rises and a bond yield decreasing.....Well is all to be seen if is going to happen and not so straight forward. Who is going to buy US debit if yields are coming down, and worst if also U$D value is coming down?
Hi Cowichan,
Thank you for this posting this latest announcement, in view of your observations and comments I thought it may be useful to remind everyone of the existing Sukari concession agreement which I posted after an inaccurate announcement in the Egyptian media
15 July 2014 News floated today that profit sharehttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png would start June 2015. It also contains a few comments from Mr-AlRajhi and an official at the ministry of petroleum.
The second link -from a couple of days ago- contains comments from the president of EMRA, who said according to the settled accounts, profithttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png share should start January 2015.
www.akhbarak.net/articles/15892110
www.akhbarak.net/news/2014/07/09/4665760/articles/15856436
Subject: Profit share & 500 Million disagreement?
Official Response Tue, 15 Jul 2014
The profit share will be what the profit share will be – the joint venture partner, ie the government, sits in the 50% owned subsidiary Sukari Gold Mines. The management board of this subsidiary has representatives of the government and an equal number from Centamin. All of the investment into the Sukari mine is audited, with Sukari Gold Mines very much being a part of this process. Similarly, all gold sales go through Sukari Gold Mines, where the operating surplus will be divided 50/50 between the government and Centamin, once the original capital has been repaid back to Centamin and its shareholders. The 3% royalty has been paid to the Egyptian Treasury ever since production started (this also goes through SGM).
There is no issue with regards to the money that has been ploughed into Sukari, particularly the costs of Stage 4 (c.$350m) – this needs to be recouped before any of this operating surplus can be shared. This is not due to kick in until later this year, or possibly in Q1/Q2 next year. It is all a function of the ramp up in production and the gold price.
There is no dispute between Centamin, the Egyptian government and/or EMRA, nor the 50/50 Sukari Gold Mines subsidiary. this is likely some people declaring that they want profit share now. This is a political game more than anything, as the deal is the deal (in fact Centamin have advanced the country a few million dollars as a demonstration of their faith in this deal – this will also be recouped out of future operating surpluses due to the government). What is wonderful is that very few people seem to understand what this 50/50 deal is – it is effectively a 50% tax on free cash flow. In fact the 50% will not kick in until 2016, as in 2015 this will be 45%. To counter this there is no VAT, no corporation tax, no other taxes to pay at all beyond the above and the royalty, on a blended rate compares reasonably well with 1st world mining jurisdictions (like the US, Australia, Northern Europe etc).
Syed El-Abnudi April 9, 2023
The companies wishing to enter the bidding should have a mining business record, such as years of experience, not less than 10 years.
It should also have a volume of gold reserves estimated at more than 10 million ounces of confirmed gold.
It should also have an annual gold production volume of at least 500,000 ounces.
A summary of the criteria for the technical and financial evaluation process, in addition to an overview of the contract and the terms of production sharing
The participation system and the sharing ratios are 49% for the investor, 31% for the Mineral Resources Authority, and 20% for the Shalatin Company, in addition to that the recovery rates will be 65% of the costs and 35% will be shared between the investor 50%, the Mineral Resources Authority and the Shalatin Company 50%.
The last date for submitting bids for Bid No. 1 of 2023 is Thursday, 10/8/2023 at twelve noon Cairo time.
https://elbarima.com/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B7-%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%B4%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%8A/
--------------------------->>>
The EMRA is run by idiots. They don't understand free market economies. They don't understand much of anything. Considering nothing has changed for the better under Sisi , where is the Egyptian economy going to be in 5 years?
Also this play is well worth a listen, was it really an iceberg that caused the Titanic to sink, or was this all part of an elaborate cover up involving a cartel of corrupt White Star directors, bankers and the FED who knew the Titanic was in no fit state to sail?
Weeks after her fiancé, a musician who drowned on the Titanic dies, Emma Heyer is still inconsolable.
She reads the reports from the survivors endlessly and Each night she goes into fitful sleep, imagining the dead man’s final moments.
The officials have nothing to tell her and, although sympathetic to her loss, seem somewhat over anxious to get rid of her. Just what exactly are they hiding? It’s then that she meets Danny Gunther, a newspaper man hungry for a story.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00046fv
There are 40bn reasons to upbeat about the prospects for the gold sector.
In dollar terms, the number above is the value of merger and acquisition activity seen so far this year in the sector.
But just what’s behind it and why has the price of the yellow metal been so erratic since the start of the year?
Here Proactive takes a deep dig to see what lies in store for UK gold miners.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1010435/newmont-newcrest-and-the-reasons-to-be-upbeat-on-gold-miners-1010435.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/search/advancedSearch/all?keyword=centamin
How the US government seized all citizens’ gold in 1930s
Published: May 21, 2020 3.32pm BST
During extreme crises, governments can also seize people’s gold. There have been some stunning examples of “gold confiscation” in the past. Most memorably, this occurred in the US in 1933 during the great depression – albeit it’s more accurate to call it a nationalisation than a confiscation, since citizens were compensated. The government of Franklin D Roosevelt seized all gold bullion and coins via Executive Order 6102, forcing citizens to sell at well below market rates. Immediately after the “confiscation”, the government set a new official rate for gold that was much higher as part of the Gold Reserve Act 1934.
https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-government-seized-all-citizens-gold-in-1930s-138467
The Truth About Bundesbank Repatriation of Gold From U.S.
– Bundesbank has completed a transfer of gold worth €24B from France and U.S.
– Germany has completed domestic gold storage plan 3 years ahead of schedule
– In the €7.7 million plan, 54,000 gold bars were shipped and audited
– In 2012 German court called for inspection of Germany’s foreign gold holdings
– Decision to repatriate from Paris and New York was ‘to build trust and confidence domestically’
– 1,236t or 37% of German holdings remain in New York Fed facility
– Bundesbank wants to hold gold bullion
– U.S. government declines to audit gold reserves … doesn’t want world to realise gold’s importance in the global monetary system
https://news.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/german-gold-repatriation/