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Y/E 31/12, USDm 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenues 733 788 887 914 926
EBITDA 292 318 389 428 437
EBIT 153 172 253 289 287
Net income (adjusted) 140 73 194 226 205
EPS (reported) 0.09 0.06 0.17 0.20 0.18
EPS (adjusted) 0.12 0.06 0.17 0.19 0.18
DPS 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06
Dividend payout ratio 75% 80% 30% 50% 50%
Dividend yield 6.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6%
Capex -241 -276 -272 -248 -229
Free cash flow 69 16 86 192 216
FCF yield -0.4% -1.3% 2.0% 8.5% 8.9%
Y/E net debt (net cash) -208 -102 -95 -188 -255
Net debt / EBITDA -0.71 -0.32 -0.24 -0.44 -0.58
Gross margin 24.0% 24.9% 31.0% 34.0% 33.3%
EBITDA margin 39.9% 40.4% 43.8% 46.8% 47.1%
EBIT margin 20.9% 21.8% 28.5% 31.7% 31.0%
ROCE 11.4% 12.4% 16.3% 16.6% 15.2%
P/E 11.7 19.9 7.4 6.8 7.5
EV/EBITDA 5.1 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.0
Source: Company
Route back to 500koz the focus
? What to watch out for in Q1: For Centamin, we expect Q1 production of
101koz at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of USD1,512/oz from the Sukari
gold mine in Egypt. We expect revenues of USD192m and capex of USD71m.
Centamin does not report full financials on a quarterly basis. We expect
production to be H2 weighted, in line with company commentary, and for
the year expect total production of 461koz at an AISC of USD1,349/oz. The
company will likely also provide updates on the Doropo project in Côte
d’Ivoire and also on its various initiatives at the Sukari mine to take
production back to c500koz pa + and lower costs to below USD1,200/oz.
? Expansion projects the key: The company is currently undertaking three
key projects. The first is the Doropo project in Côte d’Ivoire. A pre-feasibility
study (PFS) on the project is expected in June. We currently value the project
at USD278m, with annual production of 150kozpa at an AISC of USD904/oz
and initial capex of USD273m. Secondly, the company is progressing a new
life-of-mine plan for Sukari that should detail the expansion of the
underground which is expected to reach 1.5mtpa; this will require
development of portals into the pit, and, alongside smaller projects such as
dump leach and gravity circuit, will allow the company to reach its goal of
increasing production from the asset to back above 500kozpa. With costs
reducing also, this will, we think, result in costs moving down to cUSD1,100-
1,200/oz. Finally, we would look for commentary on the company’s eastern
desert exploration (EDX) programme in Egypt, where it is seeking to
discover new deposits that would be able to form standalone deposits. We
would expect commentary on fiscal terms for exploitation of these resources
to also be a near-term catalyst. We would also look for any updates on
smaller, higher-grade new deposits within truckable distance of Sukari.
? Model changes and valuation: We update our model for our revised price
deck; our price target increases to GBp144 per share. The stock is trading on
1.06x NAV and 3.5x FY 2023E EBITDA. Centamin will, over the next couple
of years, meaningfully lower costs and increase production, enabling a
meaningful FCF increase, while also progressing attractive greenfield
growth projects, such as Doropo. We remain Buy-rated and would add on
current, unmerited, weakness.
Hi Tony,
I would expect it to move even higher if gold can stay at this kind of level for long enough that the assumption in valuing CEY is that this is the new normal rather than a spike.
At this gold level we are looking at clearing c$600 over AISC, in fact all else being equal you would expect AISC to fall next year assuming CEY manage to deliver the step up to 500koz per year that they promise. Horgan so far has broadly delivered on the oz increases he has promised year on year.
At 500k oz even assuming no lowering of AISC but assuming gold holds then we get $300M profit per annum. From memory EMRA gets 52.5% so there is 47.5% left i.e. $142.5M which is c£115M. With 1,56M shares in circulation that equates to 10p per share. It is then a case pick you p/e. At 10 you get the current share price, at 15 you get £1.50.
There is a general downer on CEY at the moment that I think is overdone, unless you belief the current price of gold is a short term spike.
Best wishes,
Prof
If the gold price is to stay where it is now, then Centamin should move to around 115p. Each day the average gold price sold is approaching $1900 per ounce annual average where as a few weeks ago it was around $1865.
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Tuesday ahead of the newest updates on Germany's trade balance and the Eurozone's producer prices.
The DAX rose by 0.28% at 7:49 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 advanced by 0.24%. The CAC 40 gained 0.36%. The Eurostoxx 50 went up by 0.29%.
The euro lost 0.12% to the dollar at 7:50 am CET to sell for $1.08859. At that minute, the pound sterling decreased by 0.15% against the United States currency to change hands for $1.23976.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
In Gold Processing
GlyCatTM enables an average 25% reduction in processing cost and ESG benefits by replacing a majority of cyanide with a non-toxic, food-grade reagent
- Utilizes glycine, a non-toxic food additive that is fully bio-degradable and recyclable.
- Reduces cyanide consumption by certain ore types by 20-80%.
- Reduces or eliminates cyanide detoxification requirements
- Easily adapted to existing leaching circuits, essentially a drop-in additive.
- Supported by AI optimization tool
- Proprietary and patented technology
https://www.draslovka.com/glt
The product/process is being adopted by Barrick :
Draslovka has achieved a major milestone today with our announcement that Barrick Gold Corporation, one of the largest and most influential companies within the mining sector, has agreed to launch a global testing and implementation program for Draslovka’s cutting-edge proprietary glycine leaching technology.
Supported by Draslovka’s industry-leading service, GlyCat can potentially achieve an average reduction in processing costs of 25%, rising to 50% for some more complex ores.
Barrick is the first major mining company to recognise the potential glycine leaching offers. The programme is an opportunity for GlyCat to be systematically rolled out at a global scale, starting at the Bulyanhulu Gold Mine in Tanzania and several other Barrick operations as a model for the wider mining industry.
Largescale test work programmes will be undertaken at each site to quantify the operating cost savings from the reduction of cyanide usage, potential improvements in gold recovery, and lowering of cut-off grades, all of which will allow operations to treat ore types that may have previously been uneconomic.
https://www.draslovka.com/barrick-gold-to-roll-out-draslovka-s-glycine-leaching-technology-worldwide-36
Quits so Steve, thank you for the reminder!
Madness to go nuclear with all the associated risk and the toxic waste that can never be disposed of safely, just building problems for future generations!
Why not go for more solar, far safer and cheaper !
Well now there's a surprise Cowichan!
Hi Market,
I am sure that all the old guard will also be glad to hear from you again!
Centamin has had well over a decade of promising much but has so far delivered erratic to say the least performance whilst the BOD have filled their boots with undeserved bonuses, just like so many other miners!
I've come to expect the share price to just hover around the bottom of the bargain bucket level despite the high price of gold, the company has been well and truly buggered by the carpet bagging antics of Andrew Pardey, the El Raghy family, EMRA and the bunch of Jersey BOD seagull watching wastrels whilst establishing a reputation for delivering bullsh(it and excuses rather than the promised gold anytime soon!
They realised that Sukarri was going to take time to sort out due to the inherent grade problems so instead of mining it properly for the long term Andrew Pardey and Co applied a policy of "High grading" whilst denying the pile of crap they were creating and glossed of the facts with bulls(hit!
Millions upon millions of dollars where chucked down the lavatory on non delivering other West African projects that have since been abandoned when their true worth after the paying of the West African premium became unsustainable and so we are where we are in the "Last stop Saloon".
I no longer expect anything other than more promises of "Good times coming now" and accept that the company has been well and truly buggered and the shareholders shafted!
But then what's new, virtually every other plc is doing the same ,the stock market is just a posh version of all the the other online casinos and bingo sites!
But good luck with whatever you are up to and keep well!
Amazing this board attracts new posters with good knowledge, and for all the optimision nothing happens in the profit game----------------- old boy sice 2011 watch your fingers in the fire------maybe not a pot of gold here. sold out on the last wind up ( sharholders shafted). good luck .decided to play a start up health company from york that went straight into the US market. time will tell best of luck to the old posters
ABIDJAN (Reuters) - Ivory Coast produced a record high of about 48 tonnes of gold in 2022, up 14% from the previous year, a document from the Ministry of Mines, Petrol and Energy showed.
Gold output has been climbing steadily for several years and is expected to reach 50 tonnes this year with the start of production from two mines belonging to Roxgold, owned by Fortuna (FVI.TO) and Tietto Minerals (TIE.AX), according to the document seen by Reuters on Wednesday.
Production is expected to reach 55 tonnes in 2024, when a new mine from Endeavour (EDV.L) starts operating, it said.
Other big gold mining companies operating in Ivory Coast include Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) and Perseus Mining (PRU.AX)
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ivory-coast-2022-gold-output-up-14-record-high-2023-03-15/
----------------------------------->>>>
Centamin didn't make the Ministry of Mines future production list...
so what is the problem ?Suerely you must have one, please tell , if true.
31 March 2023
The El Dabaa nuclear power plant project - about 320 kilometres north-west of Cairo - is based on contracts between NPPA and Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom that entered into force on 11 December 2017. The plant will comprise four VVER-1200 units, like those already in operation at the Leningrad and Novovoronezh plants in Russia, and the Ostrovets plant in Belarus.
The contracts stipulate that Rosatom will not only build the plant, but will also supply Russian nuclear fuel for its entire life cycle.
Construction of unit 1 began in July last year, with that of unit 2 following in November.
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Third-Egyptian-reactor-receives-construction-permi
Well Steve you know it was traders,its normal . but a thumbs up from me.
not that you are bothered, .
ignore it- this happens a lot with some strange trades after the UT, it’s like they were jumbled up -
the UT price is the close price- surprised you have not noticed this before- years ago I got exited by a jump shown on google only to be gutted the next morning!
With regards to the Additional Listing announcement, this is a normal course announcement for shares held in connection with the Company’s shareholder approved employee incentive plans.
As already stated the devolutionary impact will be 0.17%.
Think it's about time they gave us shareholders some incentive!
Centamin PLCGBX 101.22 Apr 3, 5:53:03?PM GMT+1 · GBX · LON · Disclaimerhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/CEY:LONPOG @ $1982 and a kick in the crotch for Cey!
I agree Tony.
And US manufacturing data has dropped almost 1.5 % from february, so all in all good for GP today , currently 1989 $ per t ounce, along with pound price and euro. Ound being just over 1605 .
Once this is fully connected to the grid, spikes in oil should not have less impact on the AISC.
Japan has been buying Russian oil above the $60-a-barrel cap agreed with its Western allies thanks to an exception allowed by the United States, according to a report by Fox Business, which said Japan relied heavily on imports for its energy needs and that Russian energy imports to Japan were “relatively small” and came mainly from the Sakhalin-2 project in Russia’s Far East.
Russian oil will face a capping of its price by the end of 2022, a senior US official said on Wednesday.
The US confidence in a price cap follows positive reaction by China and India to the plan, which would limit Moscow’s revenues over its aggression in Ukraine yet keep key customers for Russian oil.
“We are following on what the Europeans have done,” Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado.
https://www.asiafinancial.com/us-expects-russian-oil-price-cap-in-place-this-year
China Settles First LNG Trade in Yuan in Latest Hit to Dollar
March 30, 2023
China’s long-term battle to reduce the dollar’s dominance in world trade took two steps forward this week, with the first LNG trade in yuan, plus Brazil agreeing to trade via local currencies
https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-settles-first-lng-trade-in-yuan-in-latest-hit-to-dollar
Yep agree Glenmere- I made it 0.175 of a % but close enough lol- and agree on your other point on oil
Just under 2m new shares will be created. There are 1,100 + m shares already in circulation. The "dilution " in share price is relatively negligible... about 0.15 % !
However, this is just the " maths "... Investment or divestment psychology is dependent on the investors' perception if current management (or beneficiaries) is worth these new "free" shares given to them or not.
But I suspect little dampening on the SP. Today's depression of the SP is probably due to the rise in Crude Oil futures. Investment monies are gravitating towards oil this week.
lol
forgot to add link of graph that I had painstakingly created....
Anyhow do your own graph....lol
It was interesting to see market reactions after OPEC oil production cut over the weekend.
Is good to see initial rise of USD and drop of POG reversing....The disconnect here is oil price rising together with USD, mainly because both are to a certain extent manipulated prices...Oil more than UDS .
I am reading that China buying of US debit is at the lowers level for 12 years....who is going to finance USA debit? The Arabs are out, China is winding down, and recently even Total the French oil giant accepted payments in Yuan.