Member Info for Cowichan

Agnico Eagle shutting down Mexican mines until April 30 - Pinos Altos, Creston Mascota and La India.
Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula locked down, Platreef suspended

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-02/Ivanhoe-s-Kamoa-Kakula-locked-down-Platreef-suspended.html

Barrick said today that, due to personal portfolio considerations, executive chairman John Thornton had sold 2,632,153 shares in the company during the permitted open period following the publication of its 2019 year-end results.

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My Thoughts: Hmmm...

'And that's given rise to another rumour - one that says Centamin will use the cash to acquire a company itself, bulking up in order to bolster its market value, to put itself out of reach of Sawiris, and anyone else for that matter....'

https://www.mining-journal.com/covid-19/opinion/1384016/amid-pestilence-rumours-of-m

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My Thoughts:
I have none. Please help me out people!

Sometimes Centamin related stories are in short supply and you are stuck with my mad ramblings instead. Nice to know it hasn't caused irreparable damage to the chat board! Cheers

Forty-nine per cent of Canadians believe they are teetering on the brink of insolvency, according to the latest MNP Consumer Debt Index published Monday.

We were already worried about the debt levels of Canadians and the situation has gotten worse. Since December, Canadians have become more worried about their consumer debt than ever before. Almost half (46 per cent) are worried, according to data compiled by Ipsos on behalf of MNP Ltd. earlier this month. That is a 10-point jump since December and the highest level recorded since the insolvency firm began tracking in 2017.

About half of those surveyed said they are $200 or less away from not being able to pay their monthly bills. This number includes the 25 per cent who say they are already unable to meet their debt obligations. As more households lose their income, anxieties are only going to mount. Thirty-four per cent surveyed said they were worried about job security.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nearly-half-of-canadians-on-the-brink-of-insolvency-survey-finds-1.1414488

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My thoughts: If a so called rich country like Canada is already on the brink, what of other nations? This cannot bode well for a 'swift recovery' post COVID19

(PS - my last post of the day, promise!)

REUTERS/STR New
By Mohamed Adel, Daily News Egypt

The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources is considering extending the bidding period on gold mining in the Eastern Desert due to the coronavirus. The move comes after initial bidding window, which opened mid-March, was extended due to close 15 July.

A petroleum and mineral ministry resource told Daily News Egypt that the worldwide spread of the coronavirus has hindered bid submission from international companies. Further delays have occurred due to Egypt’s own precautionary measures, including night-time curfews and flights suspension.

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My Thoughts: How is it we cannot catch a break in Egypt? Legal challenges, uprisings, coups, plagues — what next?!

Sawiris said that he has invested half of his capital in the precious metal and reiterated his confidence that the price of gold will rise due to the covid-19 crisis, despite it having recently eased.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTZb-VOboO8

I hope you are spending your time enjoyably, perhaps a very large jigsaw puzzle!

First link is pretty basic and second link gets very specific

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/03/25/where-is-the-u-s-government-getting-all-the-money-its-spending-in-the-coronavirus-crisis

https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/

Central banks: The Federal Reserve can and does create money, and it can and does use that money to buy government bonds. That’s what the Fed did during the Great Recession of 2007-09, and that’s what it is doing now. To be precise, the Fed isn’t giving money directly to the Treasury. The Fed is, in effect, buying government IOUs (Treasury bonds) from private investors or foreign governments who have lent money to the Treasury. But, of course, the more the Fed buys, the lower the interest rates that the government has to pay on new borrowing, and the more the U.S. Treasury can borrow overall without pushing up that interest rate.

Securities purchases (QE):The Fed has resumed purchasing massive amounts of securities, a key tool employed during the Great Recession, when the Fed bought trillions of long-term securities. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities markets have become dysfunctional since the outbreak of COVID-19, and the Fed’s actions aim to restore smooth market functioning so that credit can continue to flow. The Fed initially said it would buy at least $500 billion in Treasury securities and $200 billion in government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities over “the coming months.” But, on March 23, it made the purchases open-ended. In the first week of the new program alone, it said it intended to purchase $375 billion in Treasury securities and $250 billion in mortgage-backed securities. To help finance multi-family housing, it also expanded purchases to include commercial mortgage-backed securities. And, it issued forward guidance to reassure markets that it will “purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.” Although the Fed is not calling it “quantitative easing” (QE), everyone else is calling it that.

Super, I think most everyone wants us! And that's where it gets tricky, if gold keeps rising and CEOs with big egos suddenly have the market cap leverage to make an 'attractive' all share offer. Tricky to escape - but not impossible!

Isn't it fascinating how quickly this 'deal' came about. Opportunistic and perhaps desperate measures on behalf of Mr Montessus? Sure is a stark contrast to Centamin. So glad we escaped!

Will affect Agnico Eagle and Yamana gold production - which have several significant mines in the province.

Newmont withdraws 2020 gold production forecast as idling 4 mines (expects 20% production shortfall)

Kirkland Lake suspends mining operation at Detour Lake (600k production/yr)

Lundin Gold suspends Fruta Del Norte mine operations in Ecuador (300k+ production/yr)

The common link - remote communities with some or significant indigenous workforce - therefore higher risk to COVID19 severity

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/gold-investors-are-betting-that-it-s-2008-all-over-again-1.1410811

Hi Bob,
I can't say I have any idea what management have planned for divis or development.

We are like lost sheep without a CEO.

Granted there is probably lots of serious discussions going on behind the scenes regarding updated mine plans, Egyptian exploration, etc. but the fact is shareholders have been left in the dark for years.

Once a quarter we get a colorful PDF with headlines that read 'growth through cash flow'

Now how does a potential investor make any serious assessment of a company's growth strategy with that vague promise. We are four years into a 'exploration' decline at Cleopatra and we still don't know if any stoping ore will be added to the circuit — the last word is perhaps Cleo will become a secondary open pit. Is that good? Maybe it means lots of previously presumed waste/cover is now considered of a sufficient grade to be viable. But we don't know cause nobody takes the time to explain the situation. Bad, bad, bad communication from management.

If we look to other miners we can easily find a timeline of clear goals. Agnico, Barrick, Newmont - they all have a timeline of clear goals.

We — we have catchphrases like 'investing for the future'

Trouble is that future is pushed further and further into the future i.e. we've had no production growth for four or five years

So without a CEO at the helm to share his or her vision (or even a permanent chairman notwithstanding the new guy in training) we are left to read the tea leaves and hunt for clues in the media.

Sorry, bit of an incoherent rant, but these are incoherent days without a leader.

Hey Bob,
A quick calculation based on my limited math skills and I do mean limited. Fuel costs as a percentage of production costs were 19% last two years running. If we assume an AISC of 900.00 and roughly 1/5 of that is fuel (i.e. $180.00) then if fuel averages half of what is cost last year we should save 90.00 an ounce - so say 10% savings to the AISC. Of course all that could be rubbish as there must be more variables I am not considering. One last note, I can't see oil prices remaining at these levels very long as the Saudis would not be able to support their lavish standard of living. If I'm right it's not hard to imagine oil back up to 50.00 by July. Alternately if enough of the US shale producers go belly up we could see an oil shortage come fall. Stay well!
PS I welcome other calculations - as I am by no means educated on these matters!

Tumultuous world events have provided a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reward long term Centamin shareholders for their continued patience.

As a share buyback plan has been authorized by management for many years without implementation a press release to announce some immediate repurchases would be a welcome development.

NB
Fellow LTH's feel free to forward to our Investor Relations Dept if you agree. Thx

Obviously Centamin (has?) made a large free carry bid and compelling development case for land package 'G'

http://www.emra.gov.eg/PDF%20Files/Bid-round_2020/package.pdf

This bid round offers a much better opportunity than the last as the package boundary encompasses several of the previously offered locations all in one.

Why doesn't Centamin fall into that ultra ultra cheap asset basket? Does it not have enough debt for you? Does it pay too much of a dividend for you?

If anything is at the end of its bull run surely it is the stock markets of the world?
And the US dollar or Japanese Yen or the Euro as a safe haven currency...
Any idea what the US budget deficit will be for 2020? Perhaps 2 trillion?

Yes, some things have reached their end but it is certainly not gold or responsibly run gold miners.

Will do!

An interesting no-nonsense talk about coronavirus with Michael T. Osterholm an American public-health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious-disease expert.

Addresses some urban myth / folk medicine cures like spending 20 minutes in a hot sauna will kill COVID19 in your lungs... spoiler, it won't

https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw