Member Info for Cowichan

Fair enough. Thanks for the civil discussion, I appreciate both your nuance and perspective. I too disagree with what has transpired to the innocent Palestinians caught in the crossfire. How to solve it without undue casualties and suffering I don't know. A ceasefire certainly isn't too much to ask considering there is no where for Hamas to flee -

Despite my criticism of Sisi I am not antipathetic of the Egyptian people and do hope to reinvest in the country when appropriate.

Ulterior motives aside I'm appreciative of your 1st hand accounts of Egypt's economy, yet I think not addressing Sisi's mismanagement of Egypt's economy is disingenuous. Whereas I blame Sisi for destroying Egypt's economy, you refrain. Surely you are aware Sisi uses proxies to attack all criticism of his actions both within Egypt and abroad - in fact one of the only remaining independent journalists in Egypt has been recently silenced - charged with issuing 'fake news' facing large fines & imprisonment.

This is what Sisi has done since his military coup, imprisons those who dare speak the truth , whether about his criminal activity, personal enrichment (theft of Egyptian wealth) or more recently , sound the alarm over Egypt's crumbling economy.

21 February, 2024

In yet another attempt to suppress freedom of expression in Egypt, a country ranked as the world's third-worst jailer of journalists, the editor-in-chief of independent online news outlet Mada Masr, Lina Attalah, is currently facing charges of "publishing false news" and "running a website without a license."

Attalah received an official request for her presence before prosecuting authorities in Cairo, three days after the Cairo-based outlet had run, on 13 February, an investigative report about the alleged illegal role of powerful businessman Ibrahim El-Argany in the evacuation of distressed Palestinians from the Gaza Strip into Egypt.

If found guilty, Attalah is expected to face a maximum fine worth from one million to three million Egyptian pounds (about US$33,000 to US$100,000) for establishing a website without a license and up to a one-year-imprisonment for "publishing fake news," according to the Mada Masr lawyer Hassan Al-Azhari.

Mada Masr is arguably one of the few remaining free voices in Egypt over the past decade, which led the authorities to target its staff. The outlet is known for running investigative reports revealing alleged state irregularities.

Among other significant reports that Mada Masr ran in recent years was one about the president's son, senior intelligence officer Mahmoud El-Sisi. Since then, the feud between the authorities and Mada Masr is believed to have escalated.

https://www.newarab.com/news/egypt-charges-mada-masrs-lina-attalah-over-fake-news

Such Russia-like repression makes it difficult for international investors to wake up to the danger they face by investing in Egypt. Sisi is the Muslim version of Putin , and those who praise either I hold with contempt.

Feb 15. 2024

The Egyptian chamber of commerce's pharmaceuticals division said this month that the main problem was a shortage of US dollars to pay for imports of medications and for raw materials for local manufacturers.

The shortages have been getting worse since early last year and are now at a "critical level", Dr Noha El Sayed, who runs a pharmacy in Cairo's Heliopolis district, told The National.

“About 80 per cent of our listed medications are not available," she said.

A number of broad-spectrum antibiotics, including Augmentin and Zithromax, have also disappeared from Egyptian pharmacy shelves, according to Dr El Sayed, in addition to tablet-form cancer medications.

Intravenous cancer medications are still provided at specialised hospitals, according to Dr El Sayed. However, some patients who need the medicine in pill form have begun to buy them via unofficial channels.

Black-market varieties of well-known brands, which may be expired or cut with additional substances, are circulating. Some Egyptians are resorting to unofficial versions of insulin, thyroid treatments and blood pressure disorder medications as the verified versions of these crucial medicines become less available.

Aside from being 10 times their listed prices in some cases, according to Dr El Sayed, black-market products are unregulated.

Local manufacturers have been unable to fill the growing gap between demand and supply due to increasing operation costs and a heavy reliance on imported components, Dr El Sayed said, emphasising that the availability of dollars and the high price paid to acquire them are the root of the problem.

The continuing shortages have reduced pharmacies’ profits, hitting cash flow and further reducing their ability to buy stock from importers and large-scale manufacturers.

Pharmacies have also suffered from continued price caps on medications, despite suppliers selling their medicines to pharmacies at higher prices.

The Egyptian health ministry issues price lists on medications in Egypt and regulates pharmacies to ensure they do not charge customers more than what they paid to suppliers, Dr El Sayed said.

“Most of our profits are made on cosmetics and beauty products, which have tripled in price in most cases.

"Today a lot of the old laws aren't quite operational any more because of the instability in the markets and the exchange rate. Suppliers are now selling to the highest bidder and they are not favouring public hospitals," Dr Moharrem said.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/egypt/2024/02/15/medicine-shortages-cairo-diabetes-drugs/

Siko, if this an accurate portrayal of life on the ground for ordinary Egyptians then isn't it time Sisi allow USD/EGP trade without artificial restrictions? Otherwise Sisi is responsible for all the misery and illnesses that continue to go untreated - and the black market trade will only increase as Egyptians will not just lay down and die to follow the Pharaoh's

The UAE are not paying Egypt in UAE currency - but good old USD

Why? Because BRICS currencies are by and large 3rd world paper, recycle it and make something more useful , like toilet paper.

This article is from last year but it summarizes well the current situation which has only worsened.

Egyptian entrepreneurs have warned that uncertainty over the exchange rate is suffocating business and impeding their ability to plan and invest, as the country endures its worst foreign currency crisis in years. A new devaluation is expected, economists and business leaders say. Meanwhile, the dollar shortage has led to a black market in foreign currency.

The private sector has struggled to fund imports.

Adham Nadim, who heads his family’s company Nadim Group, which makes furniture for hotels and corporate clients, said he was having problems importing crucial inputs such as hinges, accessories and paints.

“Everyone gives me speculative prices based on what they think the price of the dollar on the black market will be if I plan to purchase in two months,” he said. “It is a bigger problem if the project extends to six or 10 months.”

Samih Sawiris, a leading Egyptian tourism and real estate investor, told Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya television this month that the foreign exchange situation had deterred him from further investments in Egypt.

“Everyone is waiting for clarity on the exchange rate,” he said, describing the issue as “hurdle number one, two and three” for investors. “How can I know if a project would make profits or losses?” he said. “Which rate should I use — the international [forward] rate, the black market rate or the official rate?”

https://www.ft.com/content/b69bbce2-11e1-4da8-9608-b7af2a6fd329

The Bottom Line:

Sisi's privatization push of government assets remain and will remain stalled as there is no consensus over the exchange rate to be used to value Egyptian assets (goods, land, properties). The prime beachfront property development (sale) Siko mentioned is an exception - a crown jewel so to speak. But was it correctly valued or done out of desperation? Egypt is over a barrel of crude oil lit on fire hanging by a spider web. Why not also auction off the pyramids?

In the end free markets decide what the exchange rate ought to be not a Central Bank - unless that Central Bank ALREADY has sufficient foreign reserves (think Japan & China) to manipulate the exchange rate on the FX market by buying and selling in large quantities.

Egypt does not have this ability. But Egypt does have a literal stranglehold on the Egyptian people's ability, and Centamin's ability, to get a fair exchange on foreign currency. Thus, Centamin's shareholders are being extorted every time they are forced to sell gold to the CBE (which is monthly) at the artificially low exchange rate.

Not surprisingly, Sukari employees agree with that assessment -->

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypts-central-bank-boosts-gold-reserves-activity-7166942232908955648-rZN

That's giving the gold away for less than it costs to mine. Every month, to the tune of $ 80,000,000 EGP ( could be more volume per month now , those were 2022 figures ) That's heavily subsidized gold purchases to a dictator run country, courtesy of you , the Centamin shareholder. The math:

Egypt's official exchange rate 30.85 EGP = 1 USD

Unofficial exchange rate 60 to 70 EGP = 1 USD

Yes, the agreement states Egypt will pay the international price ( i.e. $2000 USD currently ) BUT since the official exchange rate used to calculate the 'local currency' Centamin gets in return, that works out to just $ 61,693.36 EGP - the CBE's an artificially mandated cap. It should cost the CBE more than twice that to buy Centamin's gold! Egypt can't buy USD on the international market for an exchange rate of 30.85 EGP , it's an absurd, make-believe rate they force only their own population to accept - and most don't. (Siko knows...)

If Centamin had never entered into the agreement to trade its gold for EGP with the Central Bank of Egypt there are MUCH cheaper alternatives to acquire EGP offshore. Specifically, one $2000 USD ounce of gold would fetch between $ 120,000.00 EGP to $140,000.00 EGP . I think every single Centamin shareholder would prefer benefitting from the weak Egyptian pound. Indeed , some think Centamin IS benefitting from the weak Egyptian pound when in fact they are not. Acquiring EGP offshore would practically cut EGP denominated expenses (salaried workers, local contractors) in half.

But, since it is locally unlawful (wink, nod) to trade at a rate other than that which is prescribed by the Central Bank of Egypt , Centamin is S.O.L. If a company is caught trading USD for EGP on the black market, they could have their business halted, their property confiscated and their license to operate in Egypt revoked. Sound familiar?

Should shareholders *hope* Centamin's CEO Martin Horgan & CFO Ross Gerrard acquiesce to losing 50% of the value of the gold they continue to sell to Egypt's Central Bank monthly rather than lose the Sukari mine for breaking the rules? That's a Catch-22.

But somebody asks, 'I'm sure Centamin is secretly getting more than 30.85 EGP as an exchange for their gold sold to Egypt, no?'

As far as Centamin keeps records, they list the CBE sales in EGP on the balance sheet but not the US$ conversion factor nor the total ounces of gold sold to the CBE, making it impossible for shareholders & auditors to confirm or deny - or object to the loss guaranteeing strategy.

CAIRO - 22 February : Engineer Tarek El Molla, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, witnessed the signing of contracts for the airborne geophysical survey project for gold exploration using helicopter in the Hamsh/Sukari region in the Eastern Desert, in favor of BARRICK GOLD Egypt company.

The agreement was signed between the Petroleum Air Services Company and Geotech, according to a statement from the Ministry of Petroleum, Wednesday.

The project will utilize one of the working models in the company's AS350 aircraft fleet, employing "HELICOPTER-BORNE MAGNETICS (STINGER) and RADIOMETRIC" technology.

This agreement represents a core initiative to introduce modern methods and technology into the field of mineral exploration and extraction in Egypt, according to the statement.

The agreement is part of the efforts by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority to maximize the benefits from the mining sector's wealth.

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/130550/Egypt-Geotech-sign-agreement-for-gold-exploration-using-helicopter-borne

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times up for Horgan

Over 175 million shares over the last 8 months

August 2023 Top Ten

#1 Van Eck 110,273,580 ; #2 Dimensional 47,425,970 ; #3 Vanguard 41,000,780 ; #4 Hargreaves ; Lansdown 3.386% ; #5 Aberforth 38,141,675 ; #6 Norges Bank 2.811% ; #7 Schroder 31,157,324 ; #8 Ninety One 27,128,540 ; #9 BlackRock 18,356,831 ; #10 Abrdn 18,275,264

February 2024

#1 Van Eck 111,725,659 ; #2 Aberforth 42,223,186 ; #3 Hargreaves 39,227,049 ; #4 Man Group ; 14,318,307 ; #5 abrdn 9,074,566 ; #6 Quantex 7,030,533 ; #7 Crédit Mutuel 6,200,000 ; #8 Dimensional 5,259,977 ; #9 State Street 4,509,613 ; #10 Konwave 3,838,802

Questions for CEO Horgan;

1) Why have the top ten institutional investors sold more than 175 million shares in the last 8 months? Do they have access to insider info retail shareholders do not - like an ongoing audit by Canadian market regulators?

2) What's your plan to lure new institutional investors and/or keep the few remaining?

3) Is Centamin's board currently looking for a replacement CEO ? Are you shopping for a new job ?

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_centamin-lse-tsx-activity-7165823285648146432-u5YM

Feb 20,2024 (Bloomberg) -- Egypt is betting that an agreement with the IMF to resolve a foreign currency crisis will help it settle dues it has run up with foreign oil companies.

“They are long term strategic partners. They are coming on a long-term basis,” Minister Tarek el-Molla said in an interview in Cairo, referring to the firms that are owed payment. “I would not tell you that they are happy, but they would accommodate or would understand and would be patient for some time.”

El-Molla didn’t disclose the value of the arrears but said it will be sorted after the Washington-based lender and Egypt sign a deal. “This is something that we are addressing and that has a priority and will definitely be solved after signing with the IMF.”

Egypt has been in a similar crunch before when debt to foreign oil companies piled up after a 2011 uprising, hitting $6.3 billion at one point. It took years for the country to erase that debt.

Separately, the country’s gas production fell to 5.5 billion cubic feet a day, the minister said, citing natural declines at fields. That’s the lowest level in years according to Bloomberg calculations. The country, which exports its spare gas supplies mostly to Europe as LNG, may be forced to suspend shipments again in the summer to meet local demand.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/egypt-bets-on-imf-deal-to-settle-its-dues-to-foreign-oil-firms-1.2036879

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Expect electrical power cuts to continue & grow longer throughout 2024 - better keep the heavy fuel generators in good working order CEO Horgan

I am Covgaz

Cairo – November 8, 2023:

Egypt will launch its inaugural electronic auction for gold and silver next week, according the Assay and Weights Administration (AWA) on Tuesday.

The event will place 66 gold bars and 41 silver bars for auction next Tuesday, explained Head of the AWA, Ahmed Soliman, enabled by the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange (EME) trading platform.

The auction is part of the government’s overall goal to diversify the ways gold is available to the public, said advisor to the supply minister for gold industry affairs Nagy Farag, adding that the auction aims to open up a new revenue stream to support Egypt's treasury.

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/128334/Inaugural-e-auction-for-gold-and-silver-bars-to-be

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Three very important issues:

1) Where did they source the physical gold ?

2) Is Egypt selling from its 'official gold reserves' - & why bother if the $$ is going back into CBEs treasury anyway? Do they not trust/prefer gold as a reserve holding?

3) Will Egypt use the $$ raised to 'barter' for tea?

Sorry that you're sick , Paul

the reality is there are far more sinister items to post regarding the situation on the ground at Sukari

for example, somebody asked about a 'strike' during the online Investor Forum and Mr Horgan was flummoxed - asking Ross if he'd heard anything about a strike - both denying it

that may be - yet, many Sukari employees on LinkedIn (and by many I mean several dozen +) are outspoken (and maybe rightly so!) about not wanting to support 'Western' companies during this time (read P@listine bomb'ing ) and vowing to boycott US , UK and so forth owned companies - think silent quitting on steroids (google it IYDK)

I know you're sick at the moment, Paul, but can you stomach how this could be a concern for Sukari operations ?

And as for skin in the game - professional analysts , who provide the 'buy' 'hold' 'outperform' ratings - very, very rarely have skin in the game for any of their recommendations - yet , you (or maybe not you, Paul) gladly lap up their glowing reports like a thirsty kitten , meow - meow

Tue, 7 November 2023 at 10:29 am GMT-7·5-min read

- at one point when questioned about the soaring price of okra, an Egyptian staple, Sisi suggested they emulate the followers of the prophet Muhammad and “eat leaves”.

“Sisi says that he is not worried that someone will say that a kilo of okra costs 100 Egyptian pounds because Egyptians are aware that “the Companions of the Prophet [pbuh] were trapped with the Messenger in the outskirts of Makkah for 3 years until they ate leaves. They did not ask the Messenger for food or for the earth to explode from beneath them [with riches].”

The tweet refers to the siege against the Muslim by Quraish, it ended with the Prophet’s first wife Khadijah dying and them losing all their wealth. That year is known as the Year of Sorrow and was the worst in the Prophet (pbuh)’s life.

Al-Sisi went on to say that during this time Muslims didn’t complain, suggesting that Egyptians should be patient and not demand immediate solutions.

He has also asked Egyptians to lose weight to save money after the price of fruit and vegetables skyrocketed after the government’s economic reforms slashed food subsidies.

A member of the Egyptian security services Mohamed Mansour said it was “rude” to complain about rising prices and food shortages and asked Egyptians to “sacrifice their dinner” for the sake of the country.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/egypts-strongman-president-faces-election-172905803.html

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Does Sisi sound like a credible leader who is fit to navigate an economic catastrophe ? Sounds more like a Saturday Night Live skit...

CAIRO - 7 November 2023: Lieutenant General Engineer Kamel Al-Wazir, Minister of Transport, that the Suez Canal Economic Zone hosts the first real factory for railway industries in partnership with the private sector and the Sovereign Fund of Egypt is a representative of the state.

The minister confirmed that there is no going back from the decision to localize industry in Egypt.

This came during a session on the localization of the transportation industry in Egypt, within the activities of the third day of the International Exhibition and Conference for Smart Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics for the Middle East and Africa TRANSMEA2023.

He added that Egypt strongly focuses on the transportation industries and their localization, pointing out that President Sisi’s directives are clear in this regard, and that Egypt is announced that it will not import buses from abroad and will manufacture them with national companies in cooperation with international companies.

He further explained that at the current stage, Egypt will not contract or import new vehicles. For the railway from abroad, it will be manufactured locally.

He explained that other means of transportation, such as the metro and others, are contracted on the condition of partnership and localization of these industries in Egypt, pointing out that a company such as SEMAF National can, with its capabilities, produce entire metro cars from unassembled black sheet metal and assemble it completely with components from inside and outside Egypt, and there are factories in Europe.

The minister pointed out that there are attempts to manufacture train spark plugs with international companies to manufacture them inside Egypt, and we are also waiting for the manufacture of wheels for wagons, so that we can nationalize all transportation industries in Egypt.

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/128311/Transportation-Minister-No-going-back-from-localizing-industries-in-Egypt

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1) Armed Forces Lieutenant appointed Government Minister in charge of nationalizing Egypt's transportation manufacturing industry - doing the exact opposite of what Sisi declares to the world re: selling assets to the private sector

2) Why is Egypt doing the exact opposite of reforms (or trying to) ? The ain't got no money to buy things internationally - they's broke, with no more countries willing to lend them more

CEO Horgan ain't no fool - why put his own 'hard earned' paycheck into Centamin under this worsening economic reality ?

Nov 06, 2023, 7:00 PM CST

- Iran has urged OPEC members to halt oil exports to countries supporting Israel, echoing the 1973 oil embargo, which dramatically increased oil prices and altered global economies.

-The call for an embargo is a response to the Israel-Hamas conflict, with the potential to significantly disrupt global oil supply and prices.

-As it now stands, there is every chance of a military or diplomatic misstep occurring in the Israel-Hamas War that may see a widening out of the conflict.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Irans-Proposed-Embargo-Could-Cause-Chaos-In-Oil-Markets.html

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if so, cutting off one's nose... yadda yadda

Tibbs,

that is the question -

what can be inferred when neither the CEO or CFO are eager to buy , but at the same time encourage the Market and institutional investors to stay for the good times ahead ?

a) do they expect the share price to get more attractive, and will buy then ?

b) do they foresee slower growth , smaller dividends (than holding cash in the bank offers?)

c) are they weighing Egypt political risks and taking a pass ?

d) do they know Doropo is a no go ?

one can only tout Sukari's 'world class' status for so long. Indeed was Sukari ever world class considering the 'real' LOM waste strip ratio & 'actual' LOM AISC are never factored into the equation - the Capital contract stripped out as if it's somehow unreal ?

I'm a bit surprised you didn't start off with 'what is truth?' in your soliloquy

as far as your critique of balanced, i did spend over a decade spreading the gospel of Centamin - and how the business was poised to diversify and grow

but those truths turned out to be false, whether by inadequate data, mismanagement or undeserved reassurances by management -

you know I'm sold out but please remind us of your shareholder status - i believe you owned more than Centamin's CEO & CFO combined , you once commented

is this still true ?

Long term holders -

- ask yourself why one of your fellow LTHs would dismisses Egypt's resorting to bartering for goods as a 'meh, so what'

- then remember Centamin's own CEO & CFO recently poo pooed the idea of themselves buying more shares at this bargain basement 'below value' price

- is the picture getting clear ?

(bloomberg) -- egypt wants to keep buying tea from kenya — it just doesn’t want to use up its stash of us dollars, so the country is offering to barter instead.

with a number of countries around the world facing shortages of greenbacks, the world’s biggest exporter of black tea was asked last week if it could trade tea for anything that egypt produces, according to kenyan treasury secretary njuguna ndung’u. speaking at a panel in nairobi on monday, the kenyan official said the request came from egypt’s ambassador.

“right now we cannot get your tea. it’s lying in mombasa because we have no dollars to pay,” ndung’u reported the ambassador as saying, referring to the major kenyan port city. “we’ll get your tea and you also come and decide what you get from us.”

egypt’s foreign ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

egypt is kenya’s second biggest buyer of tea, after ****stan. exports to the two markets in the first eight months of 2023 were down 23% and 13% respectively, according to tea board of kenya data.

read more: ****stan, egypt tea drinkers reduce demand for kenyan exports

president william ruto dispatched his agriculture minister to negotiate a similar barter arrangement with ****stan, ndung’u said.

“we are still in a dollar global shortage and that is why countries like egypt and ****stan want to do barter trade,” he said.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/short-of-dollars-kenya-says-egypt-asks-to-barter-for-tea-1.1994640

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long term shareholders - please don't be lulled into a stupor by the likes of mizolglit - touting egypt joining brics being some sort of solution -

egypt is entering an economic catastrophe the likes they've never experienced , whether this materially impacts sukari operations is yet to be seen , but ignoring a problem doesn't make it go away

DASUT,

Are you saying the monthly gold sales contract between the CBE and Centamin is no longer in effect? If so please share your source -