Member Info for Cowichan

CEO Horgan and his trusty investor relations team will let you know if anything of relevance happens in Egypt. Now sit back and enjoy Centamin's Rugby Update --->>>

@CentaminPlc

7h

#CEY has been a sponsor of the Alexandria #Rugby Club since 2003. This #diverse club plays an important role in the increasing popularity of the sport in #Egypt.

Congratulations and we hope to see Egypt in the World Cup before long! 👏😀🇪🇬🏉

#Community #Sport #Inclusion

https://twitter.com/CentaminPlc/status/1716376348879401109

🏉🏆 With the #Rugby World Cup final this weekend, we want to appreciate the grassroots rugby clubs that raise the profile of the sport and enable people to come together as a team to play and develop their skills. 💪

Centamin PLC has been a founding partner of the Alexandria Rugby Club in #Egypt since 2003, and remains a proud sponsor today.

This club of #male and #female players and staff has grown from strength to strength, playing an important role in the increasing popularity of the sport in Egypt.

Keep up the good work and we hope to see Egypt in the World Cup before long! 🙂🇪🇬🏉

#Community #Inclusion #CEY

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/centamin-egypt-pharaoh-gold-mines_rugby-egypt-male-activity-7122142086060986368-qgx5

Last updated: 2023/10/21 at 11:27 PM

Egyptian government plans to borrow EGP 1.263tn from local market

Egypt’s Ministry of Finance aims to issue 52 T-bond tenders worth EGP 1.186tn and 26 T-bond bids worth EGP 41.5bn between October and December 2023. This reflects the government’s need for short-term liquidity.

These government securities are offered through 15 banks participating in the “primary dealers” system in the primary market.

https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2023/10/21/egyptian-government-plans-to-borrow-egp-1-263tn-from-local-market-in-q2-fy-2023-24/

(Google says that is the equivalent of $41 Billion US dollars - all from in-country banks)

a result of foreign funding sources disappearing due to risk of default, S&P the latest credit rating agency to sound the alarm just yesterday

Oct 21, 2023

S&P Global Ratings has downgraded Egypt's rating further into negative territory, citing the slow progress being made on monetary and structural reforms.

The country's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings were revised to “B-” from “B”, which is “highly speculative” and is six levels below investment grade, the New York-based ratings agency said on Friday.

Non-investment grade makes it more difficult for a country to access capital markets and raise funding that it needs when it wants to borrow.

S&P said the slow pace of the reforms has delayed the disbursement of multilateral and bilateral funds “critical to covering Egypt's high external funding needs”.

“The costs of delay include a foreign currency shortage, a wide gap between the official and informal exchange rates, lower remittance inflows and weaker private sector confidence and growth,”

S&P said it could lower its ratings on Egypt further if authorities fail to implement the macroeconomic reforms required to reduce the country's economic imbalances and to unlock multilateral and bilateral funding.

“We could also lower the ratings if the government's already elevated interest costs rise further, increasing the risk of a distressed debt exchange,” it said.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/10/21/sp-revises-egypts-rating-lower-on-slow-progress-of-fiscal-reforms/

Hi Tornadotony,

Interesting strategy. I haven't dived into Shanta's numbers so couldn't comment on that aspect but the part about selling Doropo to an existing WA producer sounds plausible. Doropo made more sense when the Batie/Konkera complex of deposits right across the border with Burkina was the plan - the combined metrics making both more affordable and longer lived - but since that is no longer the strategy the economics need to be thoroughly reassessed.

That said, waiting until the literal last second before the main Doropo concession expires ( without possibility of renewal ) as Horgan is currently doing by pushing the DFS out to mid 2024 will doom any possible sale to another miner. How that is tolerated (nay, lauded) by some shareholders I don't comprehend

Person on this chat forum that is qualified to share a 1st hand opinion of the sentiment among Egyptians during this time of - what could be - regional war.

And to be fair - I will not comment or reply. I'll give the whole Egypt , Hamas , Israel conflict a w i d e birth for the next several weeks. It's worth it just to know you're not avoiding corresponding here just because of an idiot like me. Best regards, Don

Auto,

Same question for you, why are you still posting on Genel chat if you are no longer a shareholder? Actually don't answer - I really don't care where you post or why you post - afford me the same courtesy.

Or better yet, comment on the Doropo project - that is the subject of my post after all.

I can guarantee you this, if you are more curious to uncover if I'm some type of Centamin saboteur than determine the future prospects of Doropo - your investing acumen is incredibly low.

Doropo PEA 2022 2nd version : Build $275 million; AISC $ 904 ; gold $1,450 ; AFTER tax NPV $234M ; IRR of 21%

Doropo PFS 2023 : Build $349 million ; AISC $1,017 ; gold $1,600 ; BEFORE tax NPV $330M ;IRR of 26%

Important Differences Between 2022 PEA & 2023 PFS are these added caveats:

1*) "Under the current Ivorian mining code, mining permits are subject to a 10% government free-carry ownership interest. However, for the purpose of the PFS project evaluation and disclosures included within this document, the cash flow model is reflected on a 100% project basis"

2**) "Centamin will continue to review their tax position regarding corporate income tax, withholding taxes and VAT to ensure that the DFS accurately reflects the most suitable and relevant taxation for the asset."

3***) "The evaluation method considers the Project has been evaluated on a 100% ownership basis, with no debt financing."

* 'free carried interest' means the interest derived from holding shares of which the holder enjoys all the rights of a shareholder but has no obligation to subscribe or contribute equity capital for the shares; i.e a 10% share in the net profits

** Cote D'Ivoire royalty rate on gold sales: 3-5% (sliding scale based on gold price) & corporate tax rate: 25%

*** any means of financing (debt, streaming, etc) will further reduce IRR

Conclusion:

a) Doropo will be more costly to build than estimates made in 2022 & 2023

b) why Centamin chose to fabricate a higher IRR of 26% in the 2023 PFS by raising the sell price of gold, deleting taxes & royalties, ignoring the Ivory Coast's 10% free carry interest and the biggest faux pas - the cost of debt financing or other (like royalty or streaming financing) is IMO cynical & deceptive marketing (not an idiot thing to do on the part of CEO Horgan, just plain evil to shareholders and the Market)

somebody persuade me I'm wrong in this assessment , preferably backed up with facts & figures

Such as laughable and idiot - those are not directed at an individual - just the ideas we all formulate about a company, situation or predicament

in fact I often call myself an idiot for a multitude of frivolous reasons , it's just a habit like swearing - apologies for any offence

my next post is a doozy , so nobody get the nails & cross , please

Filled post after hate filled post on LinkedIn these days.

If I was their boss they wouldn't have spare time to post this during work hours. But sadly , this included Centamin group managers and every level of employment at Sukari.

Ahmad Mohammad likes this

Muhammad Ahmed Eid, ISEE®, PMP®

• 2nd •

Drilling and Blasting Manager, ISEE Membership

6h •

Connect with Muhammad Ahmed Eid, ISEE®, PMP®

America must immediately stop meddling in and corrupting peace among nations and international communities.

Everyone knows that Israel is not a state; Israel is a corruption hotspot, planted by America to corrupt, destroy, and steal the resources of the Middle East.

continues...

You posted 'seems to me Cowichan is not on our side'

yet , who else on the LSE chat board highlights the data Centamin's management would rather bury in the pages or obfuscate behind a misleading headline ?

if you figure somebody who wants to prevent you and other LTHs from being deceived and ultimately losing money isn't on your side, you have no business purchasing shares in any company - ever

The only job you seem to have MrBond is covering up for Centamin's mismanagement - whom you continually worship for giving shareholders dwindling dividends, a flailing share price & ever rising costs - if that is your definition of a normal shareholder then you are anything but

I'll give you that nobody at Sukari has been seriously injured or died lately - but the rest is utter rubbish

the elevated waste clearing is not scheduled to finish until the end of mine winddown period - as per Centamin's brand new LOM schedule found here : https://www.centamin.com/media/2996/sukari-life-of-mine-summary-oct-23.pdf

year 2024 waste to ore ratio 6.4 to 1

year 2025 waste to ore ratio 10.0 to 1

year 2026 waste to ore ratio 11.4 to 1

year 2027 waste to ore ratio 10.0 to 1

year 2028 waste to ore ratio 11.1 to 1

year 2029 waste to ore ratio 7.5 to 1

year 2030 waste to ore ratio 5.8 to 1

and forget about less ounces being very good for shareholders - less ounces means higher AISC because the ounces produced is the denominator in that equation ($600,000,000 / 500,000 ounces = $1,200 AISC vs $600,000,000 / 400,000 ounces = $1500 AISC)

how about experts like Bond stop spewing the same old misinformation to lull shareholders into a comatose state of delusion , without numbers and facts all you have is pie-in-the-sky platitudes that all is well

It's been 12 quarters since Centamin last cleared 130k oz

Centamin's own estimates at the start of 2023 was not for 130k ounces in Q4

so why would shareholders expect that to be reached? unless there is a standby source of higher-than-normal grade ore waiting to be processed -

Centamin's processing plant runs at capacity 24-7 (not including during breakdowns or maintenance) so there is no means to push more ore thru the system - the only other way to increase ounces is via higher grade - if Centamin has higher grade ore just waiting for such disruptions, great - tell shareholders the same - if not - tell shareholders the shortfall is unlikely to be met

Just like in Venezuela & Lebanon. First your money becomes worthless, then its use becomes restricted, and lastly its not yours anymore, its the banks… Goodluck Egyptians 🥳

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cyih932IK8L/

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Ahram Online , Tuesday 17 Oct 2023

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) issued new instructions on Tuesday to regulate the use of credit cards for transactions in foreign currencies abroad amid concerns of misuse.

The decision was taken as the CBE has noticed recently “misuse of credit cards by withdrawing cash from abroad despite not travelling,” the central bank said in a statement on Tuesday.

Banks have already started to inform customers of the limit of their domestic transactions.

State-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) limited domestic transactions to the equivalent of $250 per month.

https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/510436/Business/Economy/Egypt-sets-new-rules-on-use-of-credit-cards-abroad.aspx

RE: Accountability At Centamin & Share Price Performance

25 Feb 2022 00:13

Some good points Cowichan. When the pit wall fails they obviously have to change their mine plan immediately (all hands on deck, think panic), and depending on whether what "fell in", is ore or waste or of intermediatry value, it can have different effects on AISC, head grade etc. Lets just say things are muddied and mixed somewhat. They would announce the new plan, which is what they did in their presentations including the Jan 2022 presentation. Investors should look at the ounces produced prediction, and predictions on strip ratio, AISC's etc. This is what dicates the margins, profitability etc. .. as well as the price of gold (!!, anyone got it right so far?)...

I like the figures they present, and this is what they will be held to account on. Slide 24 on the Jan presentation is one to look at. This year they are predicting higher AISC, and thank goodness for the global instability (sad comment), the gold price could exceed the cost increases, and the margins could be healthier than predicted. After, 2023 on, gut feel is CEY will be a cash cow again.

------------------------------->>>>

the January 2022 presentation goldgnome refers to can be viewed here

https://www.centamin.com/media/2477/centamin-investor-presentation-jan2022.pdf

page 24 indeed forecasts AISC coming in at $900-1175 in 2024

whereas the newest LOM plan shows AISC coming in at $1,140 - 1,220 in 2024

Now, the question is - how can CEO Horgan advise the market that in 2025 AISC will reduce to $1042 when the same 'just revised' LOM chart shows the strip ratio spiking up to 10 to 1 in 2025 (verses 6.4 to 1) in 2024 ?

These two facts are not compatible. Wouldn't you agree, goldgnome?

So you literally went from if the strip ratio doesn't come down Horgan should lose his job

to

everything is great now, trust me, i know what i'm talking about

that's laughable

what will your view be next week, i wonder

These are YOUR words posted earlier this year:

RE: Regarding Strip Ratio & 2023+ Ore Grades11 Mar 2023 09:10

Cowichan Interesting comment regarding strip ratio suggest you remove the waste removal impact in 22,23 and 24 and the strip ratio definitely reduces. So if average is 8:1 then as I say remove the first 3 years and logic says strip ratio will (should or GOT TO if Horgan wants to stay in a job) reduce.

Excellent news also is the higher grades years 25 through 29 in the open pit (hopefully justifying the waste contract).

Grades lower than 22 for 23 and 24 but increased ore both above and below ground hence forecast of marginal improvement in ounces.

--------------------------->>>>

you can't have it both ways , either you were wrong before , or you are wrong now - saying both are true is a diservice to others LSE posters and shareholders who believed things were headed in the right direction post Capital Drilling contract

I seem to recall you and others quite positively assuring others the strip ratio would be reduced significantly due to the costly but quite prudent Capital Drilling contract wrapping up - indeed stating the strip ratio would return near the historic average once complete -

but now - when presented with quite the opposite - it's "just how older mines" operate"

wow, there really is no wrong CEO Horgan and team can do - it's always a 'buy' rating

clearly - these elevated figures which rise year over year is new information to shareholders as nobody, not LSE posters, Centamin management or analysts have drawn attention to it

to state one thing about reducing strip ratios in the past , then pretend one didn't , is the realm of executives with stock options , not simple shareholders like 'us' - but maybe we're not in the same boat after all

The 'not actually lower' LOM waste to ore ratio of 6.4 to 1 CEO Horgan touted on the video presentation last week isn't the end of the bad news - look under the hood at the 'year by year' chart and you'll see the ratio actually rises substantially for each of the next 5-6 years!

the chart is found here : https://www.centamin.com/media/2996/sukari-life-of-mine-summary-oct-23.pdf

2024 6.4

2025 10.0

2026 11.4

2027 10.0

2028 11.1

2029 7.5

2030 5.8

Neither the analysts nor management discussed this upward trend. No wonder the AISC isn't scheduled to get below $1000 until 2029 - the waste stripping ratio is elevated until the next decade!

Siko,

it's impossible to defend Egypt's position , so the only option is to end debate - that is fine, just don't expect democratic minded people to gladly support Sisi's decision to prevent Palestinians from leaving - there is no 'seeing' Sisi's point of view - Sisi is a ruthless dictator that cares even less about the Palestinians than he does Egyptians - the tens of thousands of political prisoners his regime has arrested, jailed & tortured over the last >10 years is but just a little proof

That is the most stupid & heartless justification an idiot could think of

so here's the scenario:

I am a Palestinian waiting at the Rafah border - it's because I want to leave - which should be my right

nobody, not Sisi nor Israel nor Americans can tell me I'm not allowed to leave - I want to live , and if that means I live someplace other than Gaza under Hamas dictatorship so be it

now to claim Egyptians are united in preventing Palestinians who want to leave from leaving is either a) an indication a whole nation is heartless or b) an indication Egyptians would rather Palestinians die than give what they perceive to be a 'win' to Israel

either option is a disgrace to any nation - but hey, if Siko says it's true who am I to disagree

additionally , I don't buy the crocodile tears anybody would express at the plight of Palestine while they hold the view Palestinians shouldn't be allowed to flee into Egypt and beyond -

I doubt Islam condones allowing innocent people to die for the sake of one's hatred of the Jews - but hey, maybe it does