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Goldgnome
I find it startling that shareholders on this forum are
a) unaware the CBE owes such a huge amount to Centamin
b) unwilling to look at the data themselves - and ask Centamin if the amounts in their own H1 report is accurate
the big IF is literally a click away for anyone willing to see for themselves, I don't publish these figures, Centamin does
it's the last two sentences on the last page (page #38) here: https://www.centamin.com/media/2980/cey-rns_1h23-interims_final_250723_website.pdf
But by all means let's talk about US president Biden instead, somehow that's far more pressing an issue and more relevant to investing in Centamin
Goldgnome - I cannot disagree more
from 2022 annual report (report #1)
45 transactions have been entered into at the date of this report. At 31 December 2022 the amount receivable from Central Bank of Egypt is approximately US $23,681,000 (2021 : US $24,761,000 net payable)
from H1 interim report (report #2)
62 transactions have been entered into at the date of this report. At 30 June 2023 the net receivable owing from the Central Bank of Egypt is approximately US $ 16,062,000 (30 June 2022: US $ 42,922,000 net payable and 31 December 2022 US $23,681,000 receivable).
My Notes:
1) notice how the cumulative amount in arrears has grown in the first six months of 2023
2) notice how the amounts and dates have altered from report #1 to report #2
Something is not right. There is no reason the 2022 amounts should be split between June and December 2022. I have inquired to several entities in order to unscramble the mess that is the above gold purchase reporting by the Central Bank of Egypt via Centamin (including directly with PricewaterhouseCooper UK)
If the last report is an accurate account of how much the Central Bank of Egypt owes Centamin as of June 30, 2023 then it's a total of $82,665,000 million US dollars
And that doesn't include July or August 2023 'purchases' by the CBE
This means Centamin MAY NOT HAVE ANY cash on hand ( or approaching net zero cash )
Is this large arrears owing from the CBE the real reason Centamin has secured a $150 million line of credit ?
We know the banks forced Centamin to hedge to $1900 gold by purchasing monthly 'puts' - both actions of which cost Centamin shareholders millions in fees - but we don't know if the real reason is because Centamin is actually out of cash.
if anyone can get an answer out of Centamin as to how much the CBE owes them in total please post their reply on this forum for the benefit of all
I was under the impression bought and sold volumes (& values) of securities always match.
Certainly , is trading securities any different than trading apples? Imagine a farmer stand selling $ 500 worth of apples today , but somehow the customers ended up paying $800 . Was it some indication of apple demand outstripping supply ? Or maybe the tip jar?
Or conversely the farmer sold $800 worth of apples but the customers paid $500 . What happened? That's called pilfering - neither of which happens on a securities exchange.
But Centamin's management has decided not to blow the whistle, yet.
But you ask, what is a triggering event?
Triggering events are events or changes in circumstances that indicate that the fair value of an asset may be below its carrying amount. Typically, triggering events vary by asset class.
this from Centamin's H1 Report (unaudited)
" {Centamin's} Management has considered a number of factors when concluding on whether an impairment trigger existed as at 30 June 2023. Notwithstanding the fact that the carrying value of the Group's net assets exceeded its market capitalisation as at 30 June 2023, management noted that the fall in share price is consistent with an industry-wide trend, and that there have not been significant operational issues at Sukari in the period, and the Group remains on track to achieve its annual production guidance, with costs in line with forecasts. As such, management has concluded that there is not an impairment trigger relating to the Sukari CGU as at 30 June 2023"
https://www.centamin.com/media/2980/cey-rns_1h23-interims_final_250723_website.pdf
https://www.eidebailly.com/insights/articles/2020/5/asset-impairment-testing-triggering-events
Bottom Line:
Concerned Centamin shareholders - of significant shareholdings - ought to be asking:
1) How much does the Central Bank Of Egypt currently owe in arrears in TOTAL?
2) Why is this amount not considered at risk of non-payment?
3) Why does Centamin continue to grant credit to the CBE when in the first 6 months of 2023 the CBE added $16,062,000 US dollars to its unpaid tab?
Furthermore, from PWC (Centamin's auditor's own website)
"Market capitalisation below net asset value is an explicit trigger for an impairment test in the standard. If market capitalisation is lower than a VIU calculation, challenge of the appropriateness of the assumptions should be undertaken 4 ."
https://viewpoint.pwc.com/dt/uk/en/pwc/uk_in_briefs/PwC-UK-in-briefs/PwC-UK-in-briefs/impairment-of-nfa.html
Be aware - Mr Horgan & Ross Jerrard are treading on thin, thin ice.
Has set a hearing date for 2 September 2023 to consider:
"As per the provisions of Egyptian Civil Procedures Law, Centamin's subsidiary, PGM, has submitted an application to the SAC to resume the Appeal proceedings and request the SAC to reject the original case in its entirety in accordance with the provisions of Law 32"
AUGUST 19 2023
Polymetal shares on the London Stock Exchange dropped 80 per cent following the invasion. They have been suspended, and trading will not resume as the group plans to delist from the LSE by the end of August.
The LSE shareholders will have either to sell their shares or open an account at AIX and transfer them to Kazakhstan, said Nesis.
“We made every effort to keep the LSE listing. But it required the active participation of financial services providers, primarily registrars, who declined to co-operate due to sanction-related risks,”
Polymetal does not believe that Moscow will seize its assets, as it did with Danone and Carlsberg, where their Russian operations were nationalised.
https://www.ft.com/content/5a8ed4a7-2bad-4948-a56b-355c61a93a8b
I'm convinced the lot of you might have a total of $1000 or $2000 invested in Centamin
Otherwise you would actually care about the company's lost revenue and prospects - instead of laugh it off as if wasn't important
I happen to know others who have millions invested with Centamin - and they are indeed interested , and show it by the respect and common courtesy you lack
Tornadotony
"Centamin is now value at the top end of fire price range for all the plant* and assets* and permits that it owns"
Does Centamin own these items*? Doesn't it transfer ownership to the EMRA once the capex deductions have been made/recouped? Centamin retains the right to utilize them (by concession law), obviously - but not an asset available for sale or calculated as such
Sotolo , Tibbs & others for seeking a peaceful resolution to the conflict I seem to attract.
Dear SteveJones & MrBond,
This 'narcissistic, attention seeking idiot-' has recently been working for Centamin shareholders (like you, apparently) getting answers from the EMRA, the Egyptian media, the FCA & in particular Centamin's 2022 Annual Report auditor Mr Jonathan Lambert of PricewaterhouseCoopers - you can also contact him here:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-lambert-12046a4/
I am seeking to find out just how much the Central Bank of Egypt owes Centamin for past gold sales & how long back they started skipping payments. And how much is owing for the current year 2023 as the CBE has materially ramped up gold purchases in the last 8 months.
I submitted a formal complaint on PwC's whistleblower service here : https://secure.ethicspoint.eu/domain/media/en/gui/105406/follow.html
and am awaiting further correspondence back. The problem I see is that Mr Lambert of PwC has a professional duty to identify & formally point out key risks and ongoing matters to Centamin's operations (see page 152 of the 2022 Annual Report) and the CBE in arrears for gold supplied to the tune of $50 -$100 million US is a doozy. Why was it not flagged? Why hasn't Centamin's BOD & CEO spoke of it?
And SteveO - MrBond ,
Did you forget this anonymous 'bot' has a LinkedIn profile (which a bot cannot achieve) and posts about Centamin - getting real world responses from Centamin employees and mining industry professionals ? BTW you too (two!) can respond in any manner - polite or irate (if you have courage enough to insult without anonymity) I'll be awaiting your valuable input in the real world below
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypts-gold-reserves-rise-by-24-percent-activity-7097677235167363072-dSXM
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_centamin-activity-7095098820740452353-k3jf
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_hey-centamin-plc-martin-horgan-according-activity-7094755610981777408-XqDL
China Evergrande seeks Chapter 15 protection in Manhattan bankruptcy court
The company sought protection under Chapter 15 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, which shields non-U.S. companies that are undergoing restructurings from creditors that hope to file lawsuits or tie up assets in the United States.
Evergrande recently had $330 billion of liabilities. A late 2021 default triggered a string of defaults at other builders, resulting in thousands of unfinished homes across China.
Last month, Evergrande posted a combined $81 billion loss for 2021 and 2022, prompting investor worries about the viability of a debt restructuring plan it proposed in March.
Since the sector's debt crisis unfolded in mid-2021, companies accounting for 40% of Chinese home sales have defaulted.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/china-evergrande-files-chapter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
I remember youth like you in high school
they were always ready and willing to bully, shame & discredit others
relentless , they had no pity - moreover they had no manners and no sense of common decency - was it was a choice they made or a reflection of their low upbringing ?
so then it is ironic you pair would bring up the term pity - remember well your mocking for someday , unfortunately - it will return to you tenfold
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
16 AUGUST 2023
"MSALABS currently has a laboratory in Marsa Alam, Egypt under construction;"
https://www.capdrill.com/media/home/Capital-Limited-Interim-Results-combined-FINAL-SIGNED.pdf
---------------------------------->>>>
Mr Horgan must be elated that his bestie Jamie Boyton saw Capital Drilling's H1 2023 revenue & EBITDA rise 12% and 10% respectively over H1 2022 - Inflation? Pshaw, Centamin agreed to cover all of it and then some for 4 years...
If anyone wants to have a look at the outstanding amount the CBE owes Centamin as of year end 2022 it's on page 199 here :
https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
albeit in very small print
However we are 8 months into 2023 - and as the total amount outstanding to Centamin may be approaching $100 million US dollars for 2021, 2022 & 2023 combined I've posted a note on LinkedIn asking Centamin to respond
As Siko says, he has no idea about this amount outstanding , and the CBE could ostensibly print money to pay for it, although I suppose any and all Central Banks could print money to buy gold - maybe they do?
But, if it was that easy - the CBE would have printed money to pay their bills instead of their government borrowing billions from other Arab states, the World Bank and the IMF - then Egypt wouldn't be paying 60% of their revenue as interest on their debt - but their money would also be worthless, so there's that...
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypts-gold-reserves-rise-by-24-percent-activity-7097677235167363072-dSXM
PS - an alghad news journalist may be doing a story about this and other Centamin issues in the coming weeks , he can be contacted here:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mena-habeeb-egypt/
Do you know if the CBE pays Centamin solely in Egyptian pounds for their monthly gold purchases?
I was under the impression they did - which facilitates Centamin in acquiring local currency to pay worker salaries and local procurement. If so, does the CBE now pay nearly double per ounce of gold as they did last year? Or does the CBE get a discounted price from Centamin?
If the CBE pays double because of the currency devaluation - in your opinion - is that a good use of government resources in such a time of hardship for the Egyptian people? And if the CBE gets a discount on the gold it 'purchases' - is that fair to Centamin shareholders?
--------------------------->>>
a recent news article from Egypt
August 14, 2023
Egypt’s gold reserves rise by 24 percent in first half of 2023
Egypt ranked fifth in the Arab world and 31st globally among gold-possessing countries after its gold reserves rose by 24 percent to reach 125.8 tons until the end of the first half of 2023, economist Ashraf Ghorab announced.
Statistics indicate that the central bank seeks to increase the strategic reserves of gold to break the barrier of 200 tons
https://www.egyptindependent.com/egypts-gold-reserves-rise-by-24-percent-in-first-half-of-2023/
-------------------------------->>>
if the article is correct the CBE will be making many more 'purchases' from Centamin in the coming months and years - I put 'purchases' in quotation marks because Centamin has yet to be paid for much of the CBE's past 'purchases'
according to the annual report https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
Centamin is compelled to 'sell' up to $960,000,000 egyptian pounds worth of gold to the CBE per annum ( $80,000,000 per month ) - and that the CBE has an outstanding balance owing to Centamin for 2021 and 2022 and 2023
I can't get confirmation of the amounts the CBE has left unpaid for its 2023 gold purchases because Centamin is refusing to answer questions regarding this arrangement , but page 198 of the annual report lists some historic amounts accrued thus far as : at December 31, 2022 the amount receivable from CBE is approximately $ 23,681,000 US dollars ( and 2021 net payable $ 24,761,000 US dollars )
https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
Siko, if you can provide some clarity on this issue it would be appreciated -
my thinking is that the CBE sees the gold coming from Sukari as belonging to the Egyptian people anyways - which may be what many Egyptians also agree with - so why pay for it ?
And it doesn't take a magician
the facts are posted online for anyone to confirm -
Centamin's website still lists its MAJOR holder data as thus :
#1 VanEck Inc 111,244,970 shares 9.62%
#2 BlackRock 75,482,689 shares 6.53%
#3 abrdn plc 59,896,169 shares 5.18%
#4 Dimensional Fund Advisors 57,019,844 shares 4.93%
#5 The Vanguard Group, Inc 52,983,780 shares 4.58%
#6 Schroders 45,208,584 shares 3.91%
#7 Ninety One 43,647,274 shares 3.77%
#8 Aberforth Partners 41,332,214 shares 3.57%
#9 Wellington Mgt 39,703,129 shares 3.43%
#10 Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 39,227,049 shares 3.39%
https://www.centamin.com/investors/shares-dividends/shareholder-information/
while updated Marketscreener lists Centamin's MAJOR shareholder data as thus :
#1 Van Eck 110,273,580 shares 9.519%
#2 Dimensional Fund Advisors 47,425,970 shares 4.094%
#3 The Vanguard Group 41,000,780 shares 3.539%
#4 Hargreaves Lansdown 3.386%
#5 Aberforth Partners 38,141,675 shares 3.293%
#6 Norges Bank 2.811%
#7 Schroder Investment Management 31,157,324 shares 2.690%
#8 Ninety One UK Ltd. 27,128,540 shares 2.342%
#9 BlackRock 18,356,831 shares 1.585%
#10 Abrdn 18,275,264 shares 1.578%
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
this means:
Blackrock SOLD 57 million shares
Abrdn SOLD 41 million shares
Vanguard SOLD 12 million shares
Dimensional SOLD 10 million shares
Schroders SOLD 14 million shares
Ninety One SOLD 16 million shares
Wellington SOLD a minimum of 21 million cuz they're no longer in the top ten
etc.
I see Siko's rebuttal to my posts about Egypt have garnered many 'likes'
I am glad Siko is still posting and setting the record straight about the facts on the ground
However, the bitter pill many private Centamin shareholders are refusing to swallow is that strong hands (institutional investors) have already made their decision to sell. Like I posted before the major shareholder info on Centamin's website is not up to date. Institutions that had held for over a decade have SOLD over 200 million shares. Now many of these shares are in weak hands. What does that mean? It means many new holders won't hesitate to sell when spooked. They are not in for the long term.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
Centamin's management (chiefly Mr Horgan) has faced a confidence crisis and lost the trust of many mining analysts/portfolio managers - one remaining of which is reassessing her position. Actually THE largest position (currently Centamin's largest shareholder) You can contact her yourselves:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/imaru-casanova-75b58b64/
I will not be surprised if in the coming days and weeks she decides (if she hasn't already) to significantly reduce her Centamin holdings (nearly 10% of Centamin's float). When this happens it will be just more bad news for Mr Horgan and the share price stability going forward.
Can things turn around? Yes! The Market does not have access to the information Mr Horgan has access to. Step out drilling, geophysical surveys, satellite deposit resource figures and grades, the legitimacy (or not) of the bonanza zone, negotiations with EMRA, negotiations with interested 3rd parties - all is not lost. Yet, Mr Horgan hasn't made the choices that pleased the institutional investors - and many of the unanswered questions I've raised over the last few years are still unanswered (or the answer is not favorable)
Imaru talks about her promotion to manager of the VanEck gold ETF group of funds here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ-8sNJeYlo