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February 2024 #4 Man Group 14,318,307 shares
March 2024 Man Group gone (+10 million shares sold )
Van Eck Associates Corp. #1 111,725,659 ; #2 Aberforth 42,223,186 ; #3 Hargreaves 39,227,049 ; #4 abrdn 9,074,566 ; #5 Quantex 7,030,532 ; #6 Crédit Mutuel 6,200,000 ; #7 Dimensional
5,260,485 ; #8 State Street 4,602,206 ; #9 Konwave 3,838,802 ; #10 Canaccord 3,500,000
https://ca.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
Montage Gold has a similar project to Centamin's Doropo nearing approval, the assessments to build their mine has increased by 46% in the last 24 months due to inflation
2022 PEA $ 489.90M USD
2023 DFS $ 544M USD
2024 Updated DFS $ 712M USD
Additionally, Montage began the environmental and mining permit application process January 2022 whereas Centamin hasn't -
If the costs are escalating to the point of a negative decision - the time to sell Doropo to interested parties was yesterday, given the concession's final deadline extension to permit is 3 months away - what will Horgan and Co do this time? Walking away should not be one of the options again.
https://www.montagegoldcorp.com/
russian journalists tell us he's expressing 'moderate confidence' to win after murdering navalny. the rest is in putin's own words:
“they should understand that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory. all this threatens to result in a nuclear conflict, and therefore the destruction of civilization. don’t they get that?”
putin added, once the election is over, russians await “unpopular measures: a new mobilization wave, the increase of fighting age and everything else they’ve thought of.”
putin called for the safeguarding of “traditional family values.”
putin said “we see what is happening in some countries where moral norms and family institutions are deliberately being destroyed, we choose life.”
he also urged russians to “stop drinking and get on your skis,” in order to increase russia’s life expectancy.
https://www.politico.eu/article/putins-vision-next-six-years-keep-fighting-quit-drinking-have-babies/
brics is certainly in good hands with putin in charge of the largest nuclear ****nal. no wonder they will replace the us dollar soon, soon comrades.
Found it ,
The Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder Programme Abstract
The Housing Market Renewal (HMR) Pathfinder programme was the most ambitious and controversial area-based housing initiative launched by the UK government over the past 30 years. It was introduced as a means of supporting radical intervention in 'weaker' housing markets, based predominantly in the North of England. The programme, launched in 2003, was assailed by criticisms from the outset. An unlikely alliance of heritage lobbyists and critical urban theorists condemned HMR plans to 'modernize' local housing markets as an exercise in state-sponsored gentrification, displacing working-class households in the search for more attractive 'new urbanists'. HMR programme included demolition of existing homes, partly to modify the structure of local housing supply. Elsewhere many fairly conventional housing improvement schemes were implemented, sustained by an additional £2 billion of government investment. The HMR programme was curtailed peremptorily in 2010 by the Coalition government, partly justified by reference to the earlier critiques. This paper considers the criticisms made of HMR, and suggests that overall the programme made modest improvements to the housing stock in the Pathfinder areas but inevitably fell short in reviving local housing markets, especially since the 2008 recession. The prospects for any future housing-based area regeneration programme in England being developed along the lines of HMR now seem bleak indeed.
https://shura.shu.ac.uk/11325/
i'll give it a read, thx
The Egyptian residents who live there were already forced to sell their land once, for $4800 USD per acre. Now, they are being displaced again, with no compensation to benefit of foreigners and Egypt's richest families, Talaat Moustafa Group, Orascom (owned by the Sawiris family), and references to Egyptian businessman Mahmoud El-Gamal (father of Khadija El-Gamal, the wife of Gamal Mubarak)
https://zawia3.com/en/hekma/
Specifically, this is how Sisi steals from the poor to benefit the uber rich and elites he so enjoys. Transparency is what Egypt needs - not backroom deals favoring billionaires.
About Ras Hekma:
“Ras Al-Hekma” is a village affiliated with the city of Marsa Matrouh in the Matrouh Governorate. According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics in 2023, the governorate’s population is approximately 538,546 citizens. However, official reports do not specify the population of Ras Al-Hikma. According to interviews conducted by “Zawia3,” the estimated population is around 25,000 indigenous residents, in addition to a few thousand from neighboring provinces and villages in Alexandria and Matrouh who engage in permanent or seasonal agricultural or tourism activities.
I see that we are on two different wavelengths , yes.
I see Sisi enriching himself at the cost of ordinary citizens. He gives away islands that are not his to give. He borrows tens of billions on vanity projects while his people starve. Homeless kids on the streets. Journalists imprisoned by the thousands without trial indefinitely. His political opponents are also imprisoned and silenced. The human rights abuses in Egypt since Sisi took power are enormous. There is no free speech - authorities demand bribes at every level of government. It affects Centamin & Centamin shareholders in ways you definitely already know.
That is what happens when democracy is replaced by a dictator who thinks he's God's special prophet. It's a literal sh*t show in Egypt - that cannot be overstated. What's worse, Sisi is armed to the teeth with Western supplied weapons. What will happen to those weapons , when they are sold to the highest bidder, like oh I dunno, terrorists. Nothing good.
As I said before, I am ready to reinvest in Egypt when Sisi is overthrown. To that end his demise will be speeded along as the economy collapses, that's unfortunate for the Egyptian population - but that's what dictators bring - just like Putin destroyed Russia.
The UAE deal is far from a silver bullet, $11 billion of the total was already on deposit at the Central Bank of Egypt for over a year. Now it will just transfer to Egypt's treasury to pay some of Egypt's outstanding debt from oil imports from its Arab neighbors.
The bottom line - forced disposal of prime Mediterranean coastal property to further enrich Arab billionaires at the expense of everyday Egyptians is a desperate gasp of air for Sisi sinking beneath the waves of history.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/egypt-clinches-biggest-deal-ever-with-uae-investing-35-billion-1.2038554
February 27, 2024
Cairo and Tel Aviv have agreed to increase Egyptian imports of Israeli natural gas by around four billion cubic meters annually for 11 years starting July 1 of next year, tripling the amount Egypt currently receives from Israel each year according to the Times of Israel.
Egypt's domestic gas output is set to continue falling. Production at Egypt's Zohr field dropped by 14 percent in the past year alone, bringing the total decrease over the past two years to 26 percent, according to MEES.
Consecutive declines have impacted Egypt’s total natural gas production, which hit its lowest levels in six years by the end of 2023.
Economist Wael Gamal, meanwhile, flagged that Israel’s power to cut off supplies could result in a real electricity supply crisis, with all its implications, noting that equivalent Egyptian political pressure would lead only to a temporary halt in Israeli gas exports.
https://www.madamasr.com/en/2024/02/27/news/economy/domestic-natural-gas-declines-further-as-govt-increases-imports-from-israel/
Political Notes:
Some Egyptian commentators have mused the 5 square mile concrete walled holding cell Egypt has quickly built at the Rafah border crossing with Gaza is a direct result of such financial negotiations with Israel. When money talks it usually screams.
As if Iran attending the UN's human rights meeting isn't absurd enough, Iran's FM met with Egypt's FM to talk about stability in the region. Iran, the sole supplier of weapons to the Houthis which are terrorizing the Red Sea shipping lanes and decimating Suez Canal revenue making Egypt's people suffer. Can't make this stuff up.
Feb 27, 2024, 6:34 PM
Geneva, IRNA - Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, in a meeting in Geneva on Tuesday stressed that a revitalized relationship between Tehran and Cairo will be in the interest of both nations and the entire region.
Amirabollahian, who is in Geneva for the 55th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) met with Shoukry on Tuesday. The two discussed a range of issues, including the status of the Tehran-Cairo relations and regional developments.
Iran’s top diplomat maintained that advancing regional stability was in the interest of both the Islamic Republic and Egypt, while saying that a recent meeting between the presidents of the two nations in Riyadh was a new starting point in bilateral relations.
He reiterated that Iran views the security of Egypt as it own security.
Efforts by Iran and Egypt on regional developments, particularly on the issue of Palestine, will have a “positive effect” on the entire region, Amirabollahian said.
He praised Egypt’s key role in supporting the Palestinians and trying to facilitate humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, whose residents have endured incessant bombings and a total siege by the Israeli regime since October last year.
Calling the Israeli regime “the root cause of the crisis” in the region, Amirabollahian urged international efforts to stop genocide in Gaza and send humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave.
In response, the Egyptian foreign minister expressed hope that his discussions with his Iranian counterpart would pave the way for the revitalization of bilateral relations.
Shoukry said that relations between Iran and Egypt can be important in ensuring the stability of the region and tackling its crises.
He praised the restoration of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and said he hoped the future of Tehran-Cairo relations would also be based on a solid foundation.
https://en.irna.ir/news/85400313/Iran-Egypt-stress-revived-ties-to-benefit-entire-region
You must of missed me desperately these last 4 or 5 months steve-o having no one to bully
people like you are called neurotic - they feed off insults and put-downs, because they feel elevated whenever they do - thus , commenting on my losing money is a 'thrill' for you (think Donald Trump)
you should seek help , or religion , or better yet both - cause it ain't healthy laughing at your own jokes and drinking your own cool aid day after day...
Fair enough. Thanks for the civil discussion, I appreciate both your nuance and perspective. I too disagree with what has transpired to the innocent Palestinians caught in the crossfire. How to solve it without undue casualties and suffering I don't know. A ceasefire certainly isn't too much to ask considering there is no where for Hamas to flee -
Despite my criticism of Sisi I am not antipathetic of the Egyptian people and do hope to reinvest in the country when appropriate.
Ulterior motives aside I'm appreciative of your 1st hand accounts of Egypt's economy, yet I think not addressing Sisi's mismanagement of Egypt's economy is disingenuous. Whereas I blame Sisi for destroying Egypt's economy, you refrain. Surely you are aware Sisi uses proxies to attack all criticism of his actions both within Egypt and abroad - in fact one of the only remaining independent journalists in Egypt has been recently silenced - charged with issuing 'fake news' facing large fines & imprisonment.
This is what Sisi has done since his military coup, imprisons those who dare speak the truth , whether about his criminal activity, personal enrichment (theft of Egyptian wealth) or more recently , sound the alarm over Egypt's crumbling economy.
21 February, 2024
In yet another attempt to suppress freedom of expression in Egypt, a country ranked as the world's third-worst jailer of journalists, the editor-in-chief of independent online news outlet Mada Masr, Lina Attalah, is currently facing charges of "publishing false news" and "running a website without a license."
Attalah received an official request for her presence before prosecuting authorities in Cairo, three days after the Cairo-based outlet had run, on 13 February, an investigative report about the alleged illegal role of powerful businessman Ibrahim El-Argany in the evacuation of distressed Palestinians from the Gaza Strip into Egypt.
If found guilty, Attalah is expected to face a maximum fine worth from one million to three million Egyptian pounds (about US$33,000 to US$100,000) for establishing a website without a license and up to a one-year-imprisonment for "publishing fake news," according to the Mada Masr lawyer Hassan Al-Azhari.
Mada Masr is arguably one of the few remaining free voices in Egypt over the past decade, which led the authorities to target its staff. The outlet is known for running investigative reports revealing alleged state irregularities.
Among other significant reports that Mada Masr ran in recent years was one about the president's son, senior intelligence officer Mahmoud El-Sisi. Since then, the feud between the authorities and Mada Masr is believed to have escalated.
https://www.newarab.com/news/egypt-charges-mada-masrs-lina-attalah-over-fake-news
Such Russia-like repression makes it difficult for international investors to wake up to the danger they face by investing in Egypt. Sisi is the Muslim version of Putin , and those who praise either I hold with contempt.
Feb 15. 2024
The Egyptian chamber of commerce's pharmaceuticals division said this month that the main problem was a shortage of US dollars to pay for imports of medications and for raw materials for local manufacturers.
The shortages have been getting worse since early last year and are now at a "critical level", Dr Noha El Sayed, who runs a pharmacy in Cairo's Heliopolis district, told The National.
“About 80 per cent of our listed medications are not available," she said.
A number of broad-spectrum antibiotics, including Augmentin and Zithromax, have also disappeared from Egyptian pharmacy shelves, according to Dr El Sayed, in addition to tablet-form cancer medications.
Intravenous cancer medications are still provided at specialised hospitals, according to Dr El Sayed. However, some patients who need the medicine in pill form have begun to buy them via unofficial channels.
Black-market varieties of well-known brands, which may be expired or cut with additional substances, are circulating. Some Egyptians are resorting to unofficial versions of insulin, thyroid treatments and blood pressure disorder medications as the verified versions of these crucial medicines become less available.
Aside from being 10 times their listed prices in some cases, according to Dr El Sayed, black-market products are unregulated.
Local manufacturers have been unable to fill the growing gap between demand and supply due to increasing operation costs and a heavy reliance on imported components, Dr El Sayed said, emphasising that the availability of dollars and the high price paid to acquire them are the root of the problem.
The continuing shortages have reduced pharmacies’ profits, hitting cash flow and further reducing their ability to buy stock from importers and large-scale manufacturers.
Pharmacies have also suffered from continued price caps on medications, despite suppliers selling their medicines to pharmacies at higher prices.
The Egyptian health ministry issues price lists on medications in Egypt and regulates pharmacies to ensure they do not charge customers more than what they paid to suppliers, Dr El Sayed said.
“Most of our profits are made on cosmetics and beauty products, which have tripled in price in most cases.
"Today a lot of the old laws aren't quite operational any more because of the instability in the markets and the exchange rate. Suppliers are now selling to the highest bidder and they are not favouring public hospitals," Dr Moharrem said.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/egypt/2024/02/15/medicine-shortages-cairo-diabetes-drugs/
Siko, if this an accurate portrayal of life on the ground for ordinary Egyptians then isn't it time Sisi allow USD/EGP trade without artificial restrictions? Otherwise Sisi is responsible for all the misery and illnesses that continue to go untreated - and the black market trade will only increase as Egyptians will not just lay down and die to follow the Pharaoh's
This article is from last year but it summarizes well the current situation which has only worsened.
Egyptian entrepreneurs have warned that uncertainty over the exchange rate is suffocating business and impeding their ability to plan and invest, as the country endures its worst foreign currency crisis in years. A new devaluation is expected, economists and business leaders say. Meanwhile, the dollar shortage has led to a black market in foreign currency.
The private sector has struggled to fund imports.
Adham Nadim, who heads his family’s company Nadim Group, which makes furniture for hotels and corporate clients, said he was having problems importing crucial inputs such as hinges, accessories and paints.
“Everyone gives me speculative prices based on what they think the price of the dollar on the black market will be if I plan to purchase in two months,” he said. “It is a bigger problem if the project extends to six or 10 months.”
Samih Sawiris, a leading Egyptian tourism and real estate investor, told Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya television this month that the foreign exchange situation had deterred him from further investments in Egypt.
“Everyone is waiting for clarity on the exchange rate,” he said, describing the issue as “hurdle number one, two and three” for investors. “How can I know if a project would make profits or losses?” he said. “Which rate should I use — the international [forward] rate, the black market rate or the official rate?”
https://www.ft.com/content/b69bbce2-11e1-4da8-9608-b7af2a6fd329
The Bottom Line:
Sisi's privatization push of government assets remain and will remain stalled as there is no consensus over the exchange rate to be used to value Egyptian assets (goods, land, properties). The prime beachfront property development (sale) Siko mentioned is an exception - a crown jewel so to speak. But was it correctly valued or done out of desperation? Egypt is over a barrel of crude oil lit on fire hanging by a spider web. Why not also auction off the pyramids?
In the end free markets decide what the exchange rate ought to be not a Central Bank - unless that Central Bank ALREADY has sufficient foreign reserves (think Japan & China) to manipulate the exchange rate on the FX market by buying and selling in large quantities.
Egypt does not have this ability. But Egypt does have a literal stranglehold on the Egyptian people's ability, and Centamin's ability, to get a fair exchange on foreign currency. Thus, Centamin's shareholders are being extorted every time they are forced to sell gold to the CBE (which is monthly) at the artificially low exchange rate.
Not surprisingly, Sukari employees agree with that assessment -->
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypts-central-bank-boosts-gold-reserves-activity-7166942232908955648-rZN
That's giving the gold away for less than it costs to mine. Every month, to the tune of $ 80,000,000 EGP ( could be more volume per month now , those were 2022 figures ) That's heavily subsidized gold purchases to a dictator run country, courtesy of you , the Centamin shareholder. The math:
Egypt's official exchange rate 30.85 EGP = 1 USD
Unofficial exchange rate 60 to 70 EGP = 1 USD
Yes, the agreement states Egypt will pay the international price ( i.e. $2000 USD currently ) BUT since the official exchange rate used to calculate the 'local currency' Centamin gets in return, that works out to just $ 61,693.36 EGP - the CBE's an artificially mandated cap. It should cost the CBE more than twice that to buy Centamin's gold! Egypt can't buy USD on the international market for an exchange rate of 30.85 EGP , it's an absurd, make-believe rate they force only their own population to accept - and most don't. (Siko knows...)
If Centamin had never entered into the agreement to trade its gold for EGP with the Central Bank of Egypt there are MUCH cheaper alternatives to acquire EGP offshore. Specifically, one $2000 USD ounce of gold would fetch between $ 120,000.00 EGP to $140,000.00 EGP . I think every single Centamin shareholder would prefer benefitting from the weak Egyptian pound. Indeed , some think Centamin IS benefitting from the weak Egyptian pound when in fact they are not. Acquiring EGP offshore would practically cut EGP denominated expenses (salaried workers, local contractors) in half.
But, since it is locally unlawful (wink, nod) to trade at a rate other than that which is prescribed by the Central Bank of Egypt , Centamin is S.O.L. If a company is caught trading USD for EGP on the black market, they could have their business halted, their property confiscated and their license to operate in Egypt revoked. Sound familiar?
Should shareholders *hope* Centamin's CEO Martin Horgan & CFO Ross Gerrard acquiesce to losing 50% of the value of the gold they continue to sell to Egypt's Central Bank monthly rather than lose the Sukari mine for breaking the rules? That's a Catch-22.
But somebody asks, 'I'm sure Centamin is secretly getting more than 30.85 EGP as an exchange for their gold sold to Egypt, no?'
As far as Centamin keeps records, they list the CBE sales in EGP on the balance sheet but not the US$ conversion factor nor the total ounces of gold sold to the CBE, making it impossible for shareholders & auditors to confirm or deny - or object to the loss guaranteeing strategy.
CAIRO - 22 February : Engineer Tarek El Molla, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, witnessed the signing of contracts for the airborne geophysical survey project for gold exploration using helicopter in the Hamsh/Sukari region in the Eastern Desert, in favor of BARRICK GOLD Egypt company.
The agreement was signed between the Petroleum Air Services Company and Geotech, according to a statement from the Ministry of Petroleum, Wednesday.
The project will utilize one of the working models in the company's AS350 aircraft fleet, employing "HELICOPTER-BORNE MAGNETICS (STINGER) and RADIOMETRIC" technology.
This agreement represents a core initiative to introduce modern methods and technology into the field of mineral exploration and extraction in Egypt, according to the statement.
The agreement is part of the efforts by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority to maximize the benefits from the mining sector's wealth.
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/130550/Egypt-Geotech-sign-agreement-for-gold-exploration-using-helicopter-borne
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times up for Horgan
Over 175 million shares over the last 8 months
August 2023 Top Ten
#1 Van Eck 110,273,580 ; #2 Dimensional 47,425,970 ; #3 Vanguard 41,000,780 ; #4 Hargreaves ; Lansdown 3.386% ; #5 Aberforth 38,141,675 ; #6 Norges Bank 2.811% ; #7 Schroder 31,157,324 ; #8 Ninety One 27,128,540 ; #9 BlackRock 18,356,831 ; #10 Abrdn 18,275,264
February 2024
#1 Van Eck 111,725,659 ; #2 Aberforth 42,223,186 ; #3 Hargreaves 39,227,049 ; #4 Man Group ; 14,318,307 ; #5 abrdn 9,074,566 ; #6 Quantex 7,030,533 ; #7 Crédit Mutuel 6,200,000 ; #8 Dimensional 5,259,977 ; #9 State Street 4,509,613 ; #10 Konwave 3,838,802
Questions for CEO Horgan;
1) Why have the top ten institutional investors sold more than 175 million shares in the last 8 months? Do they have access to insider info retail shareholders do not - like an ongoing audit by Canadian market regulators?
2) What's your plan to lure new institutional investors and/or keep the few remaining?
3) Is Centamin's board currently looking for a replacement CEO ? Are you shopping for a new job ?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_centamin-lse-tsx-activity-7165823285648146432-u5YM