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"Cost recovery pool is now at 120% of current enterprise value 🤑💵 "
LOL someone struggles with mathematics
Yes. But can't be double-counted in valuation and can't be invoiced twice. So model the CRP net of the receivables to estimate future invoices. Very important re: Note slide 8 "cost recovery pool supportive of cash flows"
Cost recovery pool is now at 120% of current enterprise value 🤑💵
If Brent continues to trade around $90/bbl I wouldn't be surprised if GKP could negotiate its selling price up to $33/bbl. Operating leverage is exceptional coming from low levels, and it would elevate yearly free cash flow from $60m to $90m.🚀
Never retesting 90p again.
"Gross. Of which $153 million has already been invoiced"
But remain unpaid. Hence, they are still in the pool...awaiting payment!
"3) Cost Recovery Pool = $224 m!! 🤑 "
Gross. Of which $153 million has already been invoiced in the past due invoices. Pro forma net CRP to GKP at end December 2023 $57 million (19p per share)
Please keep the noise down until April...
Cheers,
On slide 19 these important parameters are given (as of 31/12/2023) :
1) R factor = 1.18
2) Contractor share of profit = 27.3%
3) Cost Recovery Pool = $224 m!! 🤑
Best Regards ValueS
Shares approaching flat post conference call. Good sign!
Note slide 8 "cost recovery pool supportive of cash flows"
Note also that internally they model export restart in Q4. Will have to push back my assumption which is much earlier.
(aa) can't even get the basic numbers right...
No surprises in the announcement. Terrible results but expected given circumstances. Management doing a great job minimising costs and keeping the field ticking over, continuing to tread water. Little to say about contract ratification and pipeline reopening. Current cash flows still flattered by historical cost recovery. Good that payables normalisation is now complete.
Ho hum.
(aa ) seems sensible
Pity ( a ) wasn’t right as the price seems to have stabilised and ( in the absence of (a ) pessimists having any shares to sell for 90p I’ll forget the day trade idea for now and hold what I have in the expectation that (aa ) is right and time will tell.
Patience Required
🆗 so now u have to accounts, 1 -ve with a single a and 1 +ve with 2 a!
Everyone now expects real companies to behave like bitcoin, or unicorns like NVDA. Fundamentals don't seem to attract real investors anymore and gamblers just chase rainbows. Oh well, let the patient reap the real rewards
There's an additional presentation here, it started at 10 but I think you can listen from the start, imagine it will just be the same as the investors presentation hxxps://brrmedia.news/GKP_FY23
Honestly I think since convid, most people are totally bonkers. :)
Great results and I was expecting this to blow through 120 today. Instead everyone is selling. People have too high expectations lol.
At 12pm.
“Watch and learn” Itsaponzi
As I mentioned shortly before the market opened, after I had the opportunity to read the results, I do hope that you are right and the share price falls towards 90. The fact is I wasn’t expecting a dividend and if those that were expecting the company to send money out in times of uncertainty sell in disappointment all well and good because in time the pipeline will reopen and when it does GKP will have the resources available to very quickly return to far higher profits and the ability to invest for the future in addition to paying reasonable dividends to shareholders.
Of course those that can make a written comment on this forum within a few short minutes of the R N S as you did can;t possibly be expected to understand the message that the company are delivering, including the certainty that they are privy to information regarding the negotiations, but as yet , are not allowed to report upon beyond the assurance that the KRG have apparently provided.
In short why would any sane person spend so much time searching for reasons to tell sensible long or short term investors in GKP ( I’m both by the way ) that they are stupid when the facts point in the other direction.
Fortunately as I’m not a wimp or an idiot the bulk of my portfolio is having a wonderful month to date. Fortunately because while you will no doubt be looking at the weekend weather forecast with disappointment I’ll be sitting beside my pool in the tropics. Hopefully with a ‘day trade’ (week or month ) profit to come if an idiot sells me some shares for 90 / 95 p
I am happy with the results given the extremely challenging circumstances. Some folk hoped for a divi or buyback but without future clarity it is good and prudent management to withhold cash for now. The SP is being punished with a 4p drop at the moment. No doubt, If there had been a 4p dividend the SP would have shot up for a short while before investors saying a distribution was irresponsible. Let’s see how the market values GKP at the end of the day, after the analysts & investors presentation at 10am.
I think we are nearing the end game in negotiations over the opening of the pipeline, so everything to play for with Erdogan's visit only weeks away.
@JLB58, I reached exactly the same conclusion using the same information in the same way. There are those who would suggest it might be an idea for you to seek help 🙄.
I pictured the accounts payable as being composed of two distinct groups, unavoidable historic ones and those arising from recent production.
The excess monthly cash has been used to pay off the historic ones rather than being banked.
What’s left now in accounts payable will either be almost completely or completely down to current production.
If correct then the company will be in a self funding profit generating state.
Always surprises what we manage to achieve, whilst having the most amount of merde, thrown in our direction.
Please keep it around here until next week and I will fill ones ISA with many goodies.
And patiently wait for my divis to begin, in 2025.
The most significant information in the RNS, in my opinion, is the excellent management of cash.
Accounts payable have reduced from $44.1m at 31st December 2022 to $26.0m at 31st December 2023 to approximately half the 2023 year end figure currently i.e. c.$13.0m.
This has been achieved whilst slightly increasing the cash balance without debt.
At the current level of local sales (nearly double break-even), a very considerable reduction in accounts payable & lower monthly outgoings (under $6m per month) the prospects for near term cash generation are positive.
All, of course, subject to maintaining the current level of local sales.
Obviously the company is still facing considerable challenges but appears to have coped admirably since the closure of the pipeline.
102p hit maybe 90s today !!
If it hasn't taunt anyone a lesson sell on news the day before !! You can make a living doing that with GKP.
As eggs are eggs this always drop 8 to 10 % on news but people on here are in a trance most of the time to busy looking at the future instead of what the present opportunity gives you here .
Watch and learn
Based on Gulf Keystone Petroleum's (GKP) 2023 Full Year Results announcement and subsequent updates:
1. **Production and Sales Performance**: GKP faced challenges in 2023 due to the suspension of Kurdistan exports and delays in KRG payments. However, there has been a rebound in local sales volumes in 2024, with year-to-date gross average sales reaching approximately 33,300 bopd, and March 2024 sales standing at around 43,000 bopd. This indicates a positive trend in sales performance.
2. **Financial Position**: Despite the challenges, GKP has managed to adapt to the local sales environment and become cash generative. As of March 20, 2024, the company has a cash balance of $86 million with no debt. This reflects prudent financial management amidst the operational challenges.
3. **Profitability**: While there was a significant impact on revenue and profitability in 2023 due to lower production and realized prices, GKP has taken decisive actions to preserve liquidity. The loss after tax for 2023 was $11.5 million, compared to a profit after tax of $266.1 million in 2022.
4. **Cash Flow and Liquidity**: Despite a free cash outflow of $13.1 million in 2023, mainly due to lower Adjusted EBITDA and delays in KRG payments, GKP has been able to strengthen its balance sheet. Cash generated from local sales has covered monthly expenditures, reducing accounts payable significantly.
5. **Reserves and Future Plans**: GKP estimates its gross 2P reserves to be 458 MMstb at the end of 2023, considering the impact of production shut-in and suspension of expansion activities. The company remains focused on maximizing local sales, minimizing costs, and pushing for an exports restart and payment solution to unlock significant value.
In summary, GKP has shown resilience in navigating challenges, with positive signs of recovery in sales performance and prudent financial management to maintain liquidity. However, uncertainties remain regarding the timing of exports restart and normalization of payments, which could impact future profitability and investment decisions. Investors should monitor the company's progress in addressing these challenges and its ability to capitalize on opportunities for growth.
Buoyant annual summary, under the circumstances.
ICG should redirect the daily $1m pipeline fee due to Turkey - to whichever party is causing it to remain shut……. or deduct it from the $1.4B Ankara owes Baghdad.