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Istaponzi, Please refrain from making such comments without backing them up. I couldn't find anything in the Genel results stating that they don't see the pipeline opening this year.I understand one can be reported for spreading such untruths and a ban after being reported 5 times.
Https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/oil-flows-from-kirkuk-fields-to-daura-refinery-resumed/
(aa) Why respond to (a) who is clearly an idiot that feeds off the belief that he might be able to scare people with stupid predictions of doom and gloom in the presence that he knows something that he clearly doesn’t. The short term direction of the GKP share price.
I’ve said this before, incorrectly as it turned out, but I’ll say it again, the ducks appear to be lining up and an agreement is imminent and a little more patience will be required. In the meantime I for one can only hope that idiot (a) might by luck be right and we see 90p again, the time to trade be it long or short term at a price that is ridiculously cheap.
Itsaaponzi,
Love that you have appropriated that profile.
No idea what your motives are, but Genel are not predicting gloom and doom...why would they?
Particularly with their debt profile.
Anyone who understands accounts will realise that Genel and GKP are entirely different enterprises with entirely different objectives based on entirely different financial structures.
The rest is b*llocks.
Well done.
Unless Weir is a special manager (which I doubt) then Genel are in a lot of trouble.
Istaaponzi nothing will happen. The pipeline won't open till September 2025 now!! Just sit out like the rest .
Even Genel update yesterday stated that don't see it opening this year . If true then wait another 9 months to get rid of iraq once and for all. I prefer that option now .
Possibly, but likely he will show his face make a confused speech and jet back off again, it's Blinken and his cronies that hold the real power anyway.
Biden’s off to Baltimore. The bridge might have just put a spanner in the works.
That might be one 0 too many Roxi? Still goes to show politics and politicians never really care about bankrupting a country. I've half a thought it's designed to bring Kurdistan oil under SOMO before the IRC loose their chance post pipeline contract renegotiation 🤷🏻♂️
$800.000 per day according to Genel update, for Not using the pipeline, they will soon have that fine that was issued to Turkey cancelled out at that rate, maybe the shutdown actually works for Turkey after all?.
Good artical CaptainPugWash.
Trust that our Myles Caggins has taken time to (try) to get Biden and his minions to understand that the prime motivation of these tribals visiting the hallowed White House is that of personal gains, and all the delays, broken promises (and occassional outright lies) spun out at the plethora of biscuit meetings held up to now - are solely to that ends.
What an interestin day tomorrow should be……. what biscuits will Biden serve (and have they been approved by all tribal attendees ? or a huffy, puffy walkout can be anticipated.
Yes, its as daft as that.
So much for all those insider buys....
@senator,
As I see it, there are at least our issues, not one, that are all interrelated and require resolving:
1. Approval by Baghdad Parliament to allow TR troops to be based permanently inside Iraq in order to deal with the PKK problem once and for all; the TIMZ (Turkey-Iraq Military Zone) in the Quandil Mountain Area. Although there have been Turkish ouposts in N. Iraq for years, these have all been small and mostly tied in to specific operations. The proposed and initially agreed (at minister level but without approval of parliament) Military Zone will be a major and permanent facility - a very different kettle of fish and one that will be bitterly contested in Baghdad.
2 The acceptance by the various contractors (HKN, GKP, SMN, etc) of the modified Iraq oilfield development contracts based on a form of revenue sharing. This modified payement scheme will alter (decrease) the rate of Capex return to the contractors and make it less attractive (for some) to operate there.
3. The acceptance by KRG of subordination to Iraq state marketing organization SOMO in respect of all Iraq crude oil exports to the Med via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Such subordination to include blend parameters (how much of which crude will make up the blend) and will change the payback parameters, reducing the attractiveness (for some) of the Kurdish plays. Control of the export meters at both the FK station and the loading- and tank storage points at Ceyhan port will also be ceded.
4. The final amount of compensation to by paid by Iraq to Turkey in respect of the non-fulfillment of pipeline agreement contract terms from 2018 to present day (ICC ruling).
In view of the complexity of the issues, and how interwoven they are, there are for sure possibilities for compromise. If history has taught us anything, however (see the mess of IR Constitution implementation), it is that simple (to understand) and straightforward (to implement) is better in this part of the world.
Will Russia, China, and Briics just kick collective West out?
Come on gkp give us hope!!
Hi Broadford,
Thanks for the reply.
To your question, I personally think KRG will become increasingly subordinate to ICG and that the current situation(s) are something Baghdad is trying to leverage, to apply maximum pressure on KRG.
GKP is in a fantastic position and going concern with or without the pipeline, so glad to hear your answer. The pipeline seems more an issue of market access/profitability rather than economic viability.
If and when this settles down, KRG subordinated to ICG (which seems increasingly like what is going on given the news noise), and new contract terms with ICG, upside looks great to me.
I just wish that the dust would hurry up and settle already...!
Asked the question myself, answered was understandably vague, but there should (as I think Belgrano pointed out) be some indication of intent or otherwise from KRG as to what their intentions are later this year as negotiations can open a year before (I think I heard that correctly).
@senator,
the PSC refers only to a "delivery point", to which the produced crude oil is to be delivered - no mention of a pipeline (Clause 27.2).
In the event the current pipeline agreement (between Turkey and Iraq) is not extended or renewed, the focus then switches to the Crude Oil Export Pumping & Metering Station at Faysh Khabur - just South of the IR-TR border at Ovakoy, which pumps Iraq crude into the Ceyhan pipeline.
Do you really believe that the Baghdad authorities would allow a subordinate authority (the KRG) to utilize this important piece of infrastructure for their Kurdish benefit and to block its use by the federal government of Iraq?
Investormeetcompany.com
Genel Energy have an investormeet.com presentation starting now, that question might be a good one for them as they're broadly in the same boat
Having read Genel's full year results, I'd sooner be in Jon Harris's place than Paul Weir's right now.
Any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Itsaponzi (and others),
What happens when the pipeline contract runs out?
I am not clued up about this pipeline contract, would appreciate any information. As I understand it, contract is between ICG and GKP for use of... the Kurdistan-Ceyhan pipeline which we are all waiting to restart?
GKP still have a license to drill/extract oil from the asset (so nothing changes there?)
So what are the options/scenarios in the event that the current pipeline contract expires?
Thanks in advance,
Genel not expecting the pipeline to open this year reading between the lines.
Looks like wait it out for iraqa contract to run out.
Only way forward now and one lot of idiots to worry about.
Back to what is was getting screwed by the KRG
No-one appears to be getting paid then.
Where are the revenues from oil sales evaporating to ?
Corruption destroys Nations.
"The Iraqi Foreign Minister, who is currently on an official visit to Washington, told Kurdistan24 that the issue of resuming oil exports from the Kurdistan Region will be one of the agendas of the Sudanese visit to the White House. He said the United States insists on banking reform in Iraq".
...
"More than 20 Iraqi banks have been banned by the US Treasury Department from dealing in dollars and can only operate inside Iraq. The deputy governor of the Iraqi central bank said they are in constant contact with the US Treasury Department to lift the blockade on Iraqi banks".
Source: https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/254781
Interesting that Caggins recently alluded to the potential for more sanctions (in the context of preventing Iranian oil coming to market) for the first time. Carrot and stick for ICG to restart pipeline?
Related to the payment of funds from ICG to KRG, and in the context of banking services in Iraq, there seems to be a big push for KRG civil servants to require a bank account now, and a pig push for use of the "My Account" app. Seems to be a drive towards less cash/more accountability of where any funds end up.
Also FYI, snippets of news from an account called KurdishFront (March 23 - 25):
KurdishFront: "The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is withholding the distribution of February salaries for civil servants until the Iraqi government provides the full budget for security forces, according to Finance Minister Awat Sheikh Janab.
This decision follows a six-month period during which civil servants received only their January salaries."
--- KRG putting priorities first, spending what little they have to maintain their power/security apparatus.
KurdishFront: "Sulaimani: protesting teachers were prevented from reaching Dabashan, the residence and headquarters of Bafel Talabani, where they planned to demand direct salary payments from Baghdad and reject the KRG's MyAccount service. At least eight protesting teachers were detained."
--- The civil servants and citizenry seem to be perfectly willing to bypass KRG administration and any nationalistic sentiments of autonomy just to get paid what they are owed. Favour moving more towards the central administration in Baghdad (who must be delighted at these developments - and can wait).
The KRG as an administration must be under incredible pressure right now, probably why we saw the KRG finance minister give specific details about the number of barrels sold/revenue generated. Feels like KRG are saying "we've done everything you want - you win". Only sticking point I can gather is KRG unwillingness to account for the names/identities of security Kurdish forces (something which Baghdad has recently insisted on to ensure "accountability" of payments).
It really feels like many dynamics are reaching their conclusion and one way or another, the dust is going to settle soon...