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Oil Ministry delegation to go to Kurdistan and meet KRG and IOCs to resolve issues and discuss resumption of oil exports.
Scheduled visit must happen before Iraqi PMs visit to the United States.
https://twitter.com/john78846295/status/1774531985072898514?s=19
Turkish President Erdogan's upcoming meeting with Biden in Washington on May 9th marks their first encounter in an official capacity since Biden assumed office which may hold important implications for the Kurdistan Region for the following reasons:
1. The timing of Erdogan's visit closely follows Biden's discussions with the Iraqi PM, which likely included Erbil-Baghdad relations and the resumption of KRG oil exports via Turkey as key agenda points.
2. Turkey is a direct stakeholder in the resumption of KRG oil exports, and this meeting coincides with Turkey's planned large-scale offensive against the PKK deep within the Kurdistan Region's territory.
3. Speculation suggests that Turkey's offensive aims to establish a military zone encompassing the Iraq-Turkey-Syria triangle, a critical route for the U.S. to rotate troops in and out of northeast Syria.
4. Discussions on the future of the U.S. troop presence in Syria will also have direct implications for the Kurdistan Region, given that a) the U.S. troop presence in northeast Syria and Erbil are interconnected, and b) northeast Syria, the only other Kurdish-ruled entity, is considered the western flank of the Kurdistan Region. Its potential fall could lead to a KDP pushback from the Iraq-Syria-Turkey triangle, resulting in a direct border connection between Turkey and Iraq, as well as a physical disconnection between the Kurdistan Region and northeast Syria.
Considering these events' convergence, both the Iraqi PM's meeting and Erdogan's visit are expected to have direct implications for the Kurdistan Region's future and its power equilibrium.
OK, lets ass-u-me that its the PSCs which are the latest bone of the camel’s back.
Just get the tribals together for a biscuit meet to agree on a % of the daily revenues which SOMO collects, then a further biscuit bonanza to divi up each participant’s slice of that %…. and job done.
As a catalyst - gee them on by calculating and presenting each of them with how much they are missing flowing into their personal accounts per day - and signatures approving tap openings will surely follow.
What the general population has missed out on due to this petulant farce is of course irrelevant.
The $1.4billion fine due to Baghdad from Ankara can be discounted from the tariff from using the pipes.
Job done.
The Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, announced the start of setting 2024 budget schedules, noting that they include added financial entitlements to the governorates that will be allocated to infrastructure.
Key paragraph:
revenues from exporting crude oil are calculated based on an average price of $70 per barrel, and an export rate of 3 million and 500 thousand barrels, including 400 thousand barrels per day for the quantities of crude oil produced in the Kurdistan Region, based on an exchange rate of 1,300 dinars per dollar.
https://www.rudawarabia.net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/280320246
Yawn. It will be what it will be. One day. Hopefully sooner rather than later. But it's been a year and could well be another. Place your bets, or not, and wait.
As far as the FSC ruling is concerned, production contracts are OK, as are revenue sharing or profit sharing ones. The ones that fall foul of it are the combination of production AND sharing that production.
They ruled that the oil belongs to ALL of the people of Iraq, you cannot share what you do not own, so the KRG have no right to share the physical oil with the IOCs.
At the moment all that can be deduced is that the PSCs are the bone of contention and not the existence of IOCs working in Kurdistan - they are two separate issues are should not be blended in any argument.
From memory none of the Gas contracts involved any form of production sharing, they were not PSCs like the oil ones, so IMO there is no evidential carryover.
zero debt but uncertainty. this is a ****tail for patience. gkp are positioned to be a cash cow! takeover and everything else that comes with it. yes it is frustrating but the lth that can see through this will benefit massively. if and when this is resolved the dividends will kick in and stay in place because i can't see any further use of fcf in this region after this episode. takeover is very much on the cards after that and that will be offered on a very healthy multiplier by any buyer.
Good times...
Maybe make it weekend specific?
IWNWTBOOTOTBHW
Its been a long, long while since we heard that infamous quote on here.....all the best of luck !
Be out of this over the weekend.
Looks like you are correct ships cook, them shorters wont be happy. Oh how my heart bleeds for them.
Absolute tosh.
Bond debt of $248m due in 16 months.
Covenants require more than a 40% equity ratio (Total assets to Total debt) AND a$30m minimum liquidity.
Net cash down $108m in the last twelve months from $228m to $120m. Suppose Genel's forecast cash flows are wrong which we both know can happen when you're 'making an argument' at Board level. $100m can easily disappear on a spreadsheet.
Repeated references to recovery of delinquent debt @ $107m as a critical part of the recovery plan, like the recovery plan might not be feasible without it.
Future investment plans obviously and hugely dependent on law suits and the re-opening of the ITP.
Please don't make me go on.
Would you invest in Genel right now?
Whereas GKP sits in the becalmed waters without the storm of debt...
DYOR.
Get out of bed the wrong side this morning P?
"Unless Weir is a special manager (which I doubt) then Genel are in a lot of trouble."
Straycat, it seems you are the one predicting gloom and doom...
Genel has a net cash position of $120 million even after reducing their debt by $26 million. Their cash burn is modest and they expect to maintain a net (of debt) cash position of at least $100 million throughout 2024. Their capital structure position wouldn't appear to be materially different from GKP's. And they face the same risks and challenges...
" incorrectly as it turned out"
Let it rip....
Istaponzi, Please refrain from making such comments without backing them up. I couldn't find anything in the Genel results stating that they don't see the pipeline opening this year.I understand one can be reported for spreading such untruths and a ban after being reported 5 times.
Https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/oil-flows-from-kirkuk-fields-to-daura-refinery-resumed/
(aa) Why respond to (a) who is clearly an idiot that feeds off the belief that he might be able to scare people with stupid predictions of doom and gloom in the presence that he knows something that he clearly doesn’t. The short term direction of the GKP share price.
I’ve said this before, incorrectly as it turned out, but I’ll say it again, the ducks appear to be lining up and an agreement is imminent and a little more patience will be required. In the meantime I for one can only hope that idiot (a) might by luck be right and we see 90p again, the time to trade be it long or short term at a price that is ridiculously cheap.
Itsaaponzi,
Love that you have appropriated that profile.
No idea what your motives are, but Genel are not predicting gloom and doom...why would they?
Particularly with their debt profile.
Anyone who understands accounts will realise that Genel and GKP are entirely different enterprises with entirely different objectives based on entirely different financial structures.
The rest is b*llocks.
Well done.
Unless Weir is a special manager (which I doubt) then Genel are in a lot of trouble.
Istaaponzi nothing will happen. The pipeline won't open till September 2025 now!! Just sit out like the rest .
Even Genel update yesterday stated that don't see it opening this year . If true then wait another 9 months to get rid of iraq once and for all. I prefer that option now .
Possibly, but likely he will show his face make a confused speech and jet back off again, it's Blinken and his cronies that hold the real power anyway.
Biden’s off to Baltimore. The bridge might have just put a spanner in the works.
That might be one 0 too many Roxi? Still goes to show politics and politicians never really care about bankrupting a country. I've half a thought it's designed to bring Kurdistan oil under SOMO before the IRC loose their chance post pipeline contract renegotiation 🤷🏻♂️