Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Not a lot just more eastern promise!
https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/pipeline-repairs-raise-prospect-of-alternate-turkey-export-route-46408/
So what happened over the weekend? Did I miss something?
Too late…. many private choppers seen departing the area, heavily laden with all of the spoils of the Lirpa Loof mining PLC.
In Iraq I believe the Ministries were allocated to factions that made up Sudani’s coalition. I now think that is not just at ministerial level or the top echelons, it’s the whole entity.
So the by-product is that the two governments agree political and technical solutions at Prime Ministerial level, Sudani and his advisors on behalf of Iraq, BUT once it gets to the implementation stage at Iraqi ministerial level, they blatantly refuse to carry out his wishes.
The conduct of both the Oil and Finance Ministries reflect just how confident they are that their power cannot easily be taken away. They miss every deadline they are set, at least one minister makes up the content of their press interviews and has been called out for doing so, without any come back.
Once allocated those ministries, I believe their power cannot be taken away unless there is a complete restructuring of the coalition.
Can Sudani risk attempting to get those very important areas under more favourable control?
Lots of references on here to pressure building, will there be a safe release combined with a positive outcome or a very destructive explosive outcome?
Oh and by the way of today’s date, I’ve just been reliably informed that Gold and diamonds have been discovered on land that GKP has a right to the share and GKP shareholders will all be given their share.
Happy April Fools Day !!!!!!
Yes I do agree something is about to “give.” Hopefully via U.S. pressure that might be greater in practical economic terms than the Iranian influenced politicians can prevent as a means to ‘punish and control’ Kurdistan. If not via U.S. pressure perhaps the often proposed visit of Erdogan (If it does happen at long last) will be the time when grand agreements are made in the pretence that Iraq and Turkey are the best of friends. On that subject can anyone more knowledgeable than
I am myself with regards to Turkey’s politics let us / me know what effect Erdogan defeat in this week’s elections might have with regards to Western interests, including western international oil companies operating in Kurdistan.
Personally I wouldn’t like to be short GKP this month.
Oh and by the way of today’s date, I’ve just been reliably informed that Gold and diamonds have been discovered on land that GKP has a right to the share and GKP shareholders will all be given their share. 🤣
IMO Sudani is siding with the Kurds. The problem is some Shiite members of his coalition are not on the same page and they just happen to be in control of the oil and finance ministries.
On Saturday sudanis spokesman said budget to be approved within two weeks https://ina.iq/eng/32036-council-of-ministers-will-approve-the-budget-schedules-within-two-weeks.html .
Today a spokesman from finance ministry contradicted that says the budget schedules have been put on hold. https://shafaq.com/amp/en/Economy/Lawmaker-attributes-the-delay-in-budget-approval-to-rising-deficit
We now see Sudani firing back with this article tonight where he is calling out members in his own government.
https://www.kurdistan24.net/ar/story/47806-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%88-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%B2%D9%8A:-%D9%88%D9%81%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A5%D9%82%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85-%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86
Its in sorani - google translation:
Erbil (Kurdistan 24) - Deputy Chairman of the Oil and Gas Committee in the Iraqi Parliament, Nehru Rawandzi, confirmed on Sunday that some officials in the government of Muhammad Shia al-Sudani and the Federal Ministry of Oil have a plan to undermine the constitutional entity of the Kurdistan Region.
Nehru Rawandzi said in a statement to Kurdistan 24 that a technical and legal delegation from the Federal Ministry of Oil, under the guidance of Federal Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, will visit the Kurdistan Region.
According to Rawandzi, the delegation of the Federal Ministry of Oil is scheduled to meet during the visit with the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Regional Government, in addition to oil companies operating in the region.
The Deputy Chairman of the Oil and Gas Committee in the Iraqi Parliament explained that the aim of this visit is to resolve the issue of extracting and producing oil from oil wells in the Kurdistan Region, in addition to discussing the resumption of the region’s oil exports.
Regarding the timing of the visit, Rawandzi stressed that the delegation of the Federal Ministry of Oil should visit the Kurdistan Region, before the scheduled visit of the Federal Prime Minister to the United States.
He stressed that "some officials in the government of Muhammad Shia al-Sudani and the Federal Ministry of Oil are seeking to obstruct the resumption of the export of Kurdistan Region's oil, and they have a plan to undermine the constitutional entity of the region."
He pointed out that the issue of resuming oil exports is more political than an economic issue, as the federal government is using this issue as a means of putting pressure on the Kurdistan Region, and therefore international pressure should be exerted on the federal government to address this.
One way or another something has to give i
Not sure about that, seems to me that there are too many ducks lined up here for something significant not to progress in the next few weeks, but as you say this is iraq so who knows.
Nothing will happen like it hasn't for the last 15 years!!
Iraq is not interested in the pipeline opening surely you can all see that now .
Play out local sales for the next 18 months and Iraq ties will all be gone . Independents baby and kurdistan is free from them ever. Its an absolute no brainer now.
Oil Ministry delegation to go to Kurdistan and meet KRG and IOCs to resolve issues and discuss resumption of oil exports.
Scheduled visit must happen before Iraqi PMs visit to the United States.
https://twitter.com/john78846295/status/1774531985072898514?s=19
Turkish President Erdogan's upcoming meeting with Biden in Washington on May 9th marks their first encounter in an official capacity since Biden assumed office which may hold important implications for the Kurdistan Region for the following reasons:
1. The timing of Erdogan's visit closely follows Biden's discussions with the Iraqi PM, which likely included Erbil-Baghdad relations and the resumption of KRG oil exports via Turkey as key agenda points.
2. Turkey is a direct stakeholder in the resumption of KRG oil exports, and this meeting coincides with Turkey's planned large-scale offensive against the PKK deep within the Kurdistan Region's territory.
3. Speculation suggests that Turkey's offensive aims to establish a military zone encompassing the Iraq-Turkey-Syria triangle, a critical route for the U.S. to rotate troops in and out of northeast Syria.
4. Discussions on the future of the U.S. troop presence in Syria will also have direct implications for the Kurdistan Region, given that a) the U.S. troop presence in northeast Syria and Erbil are interconnected, and b) northeast Syria, the only other Kurdish-ruled entity, is considered the western flank of the Kurdistan Region. Its potential fall could lead to a KDP pushback from the Iraq-Syria-Turkey triangle, resulting in a direct border connection between Turkey and Iraq, as well as a physical disconnection between the Kurdistan Region and northeast Syria.
Considering these events' convergence, both the Iraqi PM's meeting and Erdogan's visit are expected to have direct implications for the Kurdistan Region's future and its power equilibrium.
OK, lets ass-u-me that its the PSCs which are the latest bone of the camel’s back.
Just get the tribals together for a biscuit meet to agree on a % of the daily revenues which SOMO collects, then a further biscuit bonanza to divi up each participant’s slice of that %…. and job done.
As a catalyst - gee them on by calculating and presenting each of them with how much they are missing flowing into their personal accounts per day - and signatures approving tap openings will surely follow.
What the general population has missed out on due to this petulant farce is of course irrelevant.
The $1.4billion fine due to Baghdad from Ankara can be discounted from the tariff from using the pipes.
Job done.
The Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, announced the start of setting 2024 budget schedules, noting that they include added financial entitlements to the governorates that will be allocated to infrastructure.
Key paragraph:
revenues from exporting crude oil are calculated based on an average price of $70 per barrel, and an export rate of 3 million and 500 thousand barrels, including 400 thousand barrels per day for the quantities of crude oil produced in the Kurdistan Region, based on an exchange rate of 1,300 dinars per dollar.
https://www.rudawarabia.net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/280320246
Yawn. It will be what it will be. One day. Hopefully sooner rather than later. But it's been a year and could well be another. Place your bets, or not, and wait.
As far as the FSC ruling is concerned, production contracts are OK, as are revenue sharing or profit sharing ones. The ones that fall foul of it are the combination of production AND sharing that production.
They ruled that the oil belongs to ALL of the people of Iraq, you cannot share what you do not own, so the KRG have no right to share the physical oil with the IOCs.
At the moment all that can be deduced is that the PSCs are the bone of contention and not the existence of IOCs working in Kurdistan - they are two separate issues are should not be blended in any argument.
From memory none of the Gas contracts involved any form of production sharing, they were not PSCs like the oil ones, so IMO there is no evidential carryover.
zero debt but uncertainty. this is a ****tail for patience. gkp are positioned to be a cash cow! takeover and everything else that comes with it. yes it is frustrating but the lth that can see through this will benefit massively. if and when this is resolved the dividends will kick in and stay in place because i can't see any further use of fcf in this region after this episode. takeover is very much on the cards after that and that will be offered on a very healthy multiplier by any buyer.
Good times...
Maybe make it weekend specific?
IWNWTBOOTOTBHW
Its been a long, long while since we heard that infamous quote on here.....all the best of luck !
Be out of this over the weekend.
Looks like you are correct ships cook, them shorters wont be happy. Oh how my heart bleeds for them.
Absolute tosh.
Bond debt of $248m due in 16 months.
Covenants require more than a 40% equity ratio (Total assets to Total debt) AND a$30m minimum liquidity.
Net cash down $108m in the last twelve months from $228m to $120m. Suppose Genel's forecast cash flows are wrong which we both know can happen when you're 'making an argument' at Board level. $100m can easily disappear on a spreadsheet.
Repeated references to recovery of delinquent debt @ $107m as a critical part of the recovery plan, like the recovery plan might not be feasible without it.
Future investment plans obviously and hugely dependent on law suits and the re-opening of the ITP.
Please don't make me go on.
Would you invest in Genel right now?
Whereas GKP sits in the becalmed waters without the storm of debt...
DYOR.
Get out of bed the wrong side this morning P?
"Unless Weir is a special manager (which I doubt) then Genel are in a lot of trouble."
Straycat, it seems you are the one predicting gloom and doom...
Genel has a net cash position of $120 million even after reducing their debt by $26 million. Their cash burn is modest and they expect to maintain a net (of debt) cash position of at least $100 million throughout 2024. Their capital structure position wouldn't appear to be materially different from GKP's. And they face the same risks and challenges...
" incorrectly as it turned out"