Member Info for PUTUP

Without going line by line through your list there's a few things you've missed. The WM site diligence, the last item that needed to be done for completion of their report, was completed very recently (last couple of weeks). The historical KRG arrears are at least half recovered. The KRG/ICG relationship is better than it has ever been. Contract sanctity has been confirmed by Baghdad. Sales through SOMO have yielded dramatically lower discounts (less than half) for Shaikan oil. Despite no production - due to a war that is now easing - cash on hand (ex div) has remained constant; not "dwindling". Threat of terrorist attacks declining with lowering regional tensions and additional security arrangements being put in place.

How short the shares are you?

Trucking would be fine although the constraint there is capacity. Remember why the pipeline was shut. Ankara was happy to ship KRG oil. It was the ICG who shut it down. Sure, there's a good deal to be worked out and Iraq will have to make concessions. (I believe a discount of $15 including transportation costs allows for a sharp increase in transit fees.) But there's also immense pressure to get oil flowing again. Let's see what happens... I believe the current period of falling oil prices and no production provides an attractive window to add to my investment. That window is unlikely to be open for much longer. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong but I'm placing incremental bets.

Nothing stops both parties from agreeing to continue use of transit while a new agreement is thrashed out. Closure would be the 'nuclear' option, of course, but I do not expect it to be exercised - at least not anytime soon. You can sell GKP based on your views while I will keep buying based on mine. Therein lies a market. Good luck!

I expect restart by end of month or very shortly thereafter (40k bopd production average for July) and do NOT expect the pipeline to close while a new agreement is reached (there's simply too much need from both sides for it to be operating).

Brent tracking down nicely as tensions ease. I expect it to head to $72 ish before bouncing higher. Lots of restocking needs to be done.

Shush! And why the non-cost oil component was written off.

Https://edge-iqy.dnbcarnegie.se/Research/Get?file=6hrRQxhaBOYRlWBiwjDboQ%3d%3d&id=DbBS9T5kSVGLsP1lwHKZ2Q==

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (Buy): Production restart should drive NPV towards GBP3-4/share – initiating coverage

We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and a target price of GBP2.50. Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s (GKP) production is currently shut down, but its installations are unharmed and ready to start whenever the security situation improves in Kurdistan. It has sufficient cash to weather this situation for about another two years at least, but we believe a restart is likely to happen in the near future, as the Iraqi government, given its cash constraints, is now pushing for a restart. In the old ‘local sales scenario’ (USD30/bbl price realisation) we arrive at an NPV of GBP1.58. Alternatively, assuming export sales at a USD15/bbl discount to Brent and higher investments and production, we arrive at a NPV of GBP4.01 (WACC 10%) and GBP3.08 (WACC 15%). These values are based on 2P reserves only and would increase when adding the 2C resources. According to the IOCs that participated in the meeting with the new Iraqi prime minister on 3 June, he expressed support for the latest deal, whereby the IOCs receive full PSC terms (the export sales scenario) and he also vowed to improve the security situation.

Gulf Keystone is a pure E&P company with an 80% stake in the giant Shaikan field in Kurdistan. The current reserve life is ~30 years, production can easily double, it has no debt and has returned ~USD550m to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks since 2019. The Shaikan field is the largest oil field operated by IOCs in Kurdistan, with current production capacity of ~45,000bpd, which could be increased to ~80,000bpd with a production restart, pipeline exports and international price realisation.

Valuation. In the local sales scenario, we estimate an FCF yield of ~14% in 2027–29 and, in the export scenario (incorporated in estimates below), we estimate an FCF yield of ~25% in 2026 and beyond. Export scenario estimates are based on Brent at USD75/bbl long-term.

The recent fall in the £ added 5p to my valuation

Appears to have broken resistance. Hopefully it heralds a move to the upside after almost a year of sideways movement.

Not sure re Feb. I'm hoping cash received but let's see.

Update on timing of water handling equipment delivery and schedule for work-over of PF.

Update re timing of WM site diligence visit.

So, what are we expecting in tomorrow morning's update? I have my own list of points but what about others?

Not a surprise. But both sides are highly incentivised to each a mutually agreeable solution.

Watch the RSI on BZ=F

People actually need to buy shares... Put up!

The Oil Manual

'Let the Oil Flow'

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Martijn Rats, CFA

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618

We adjust our forecast following the US/Iran MOU. We still see

a tight summer ahead, and suspect Dated Brent can rebound

from current levels into 3Q. However, with prospects of SoH

recovery improved, our previous forecasts now appear too high.

From 4Q onwards, we see Brent anchored around $80/b.

Exhibit 2 : We revise our near-term Brent price

lower; our long-term forecast remains

anchored around $80/b

Key Takeaways

Our previous modelling assumptions reflected a political agreement by late July;

with the MOU announced over the weekend, this has come ~2 weeks earlier

From here, it likely takes several weeks for tanker flow to be restored; we see

50% of production back by Sept, and 80% by Dec, slightly faster than before

Despite the disruption, a broad range of indicators has signaled weakness in

physical oil markets in recent weeks; notably, unsold cargos are above-average

The 'twin solvers' of high US exports and low China imports are the key drivers; in

the short term (i.e. next weeks) they do not seem to come to an end just yet

In the end, we still see a tight summer that can support a modest rebound, but

that period now appears too short to support our previous Brent forecast

New Brent forecasts

3Q 26 $90

4Q 26 $80

1Q-4Q 27 $80

Added again today at 171p. I will admit to being surprised at today's lows. I thought we'd have support at 172. Nonetheless I have used this recent weakness to increase my position by about 28% so far. (Recall, I reduced my position dramatically with sales as high at 225.33p.) I doubt I will return to previous holding levels but happy to keep adding here. The next week should be interesting.

If I ere management I wouldn't be in a rush to squander their moment of peak leverage with Baghdad... They need to squeeze this moment for everything they can.

This is another put up or shut up moment...

One way to think about the current price is that it assumes GKP can only produce about 27.5k bopd average going forward at a $15 discount to $75 Brent. Use this weakness to accumulate.

That plus a peace deal. Oil will fall but production will restart. A discount of $15 rather than $32 is VERY significant.