Member Info for PUTUP

And another 1.2% of company this week

No way in hell, but we can dream. KBT forecast TBV per share of 179 end '27. I don't see it trading over 1x tangible book - the return on equity isn't high enough.

From the most recent "Information Document" (which everyone should read in detail):

"Over time, the outstanding cost pool is expected to be fully recovered. Increases in realised prices and production as well as the potential settlement of past overdue invoices are expected to, among other factors, accelerate depletion. Once this happens, the Company's net entitlement will be below 36% and will be determined by the revenue realised from oil sales and the amount of recoverable net capital expenditures and operating costs spent

in a given period."

The only outstanding cost pool amount left is the cost component of the overdue invoices.

Not 3 years, but end '27 I'd expect circa 180p.

"the market is not yet recognising the full export price or the accrued receivables resulting from the difference between the $16 a barrel that the IOCs are currently being paid and the full export price that is expected once the reconcilliation is complete when Wood Mackenzie have come up with their numbers." (sic)

In the case of GKP this value is certainly being recognised in the current price. We also have to remember that this is receivable recovery and not a permanent fixture.

I'm saying guys like Schroders who owned a whopping 16.5% of the company at the end of the year and have trimmed down to 12.8% now may well have to continue to reduce even while they like the company's fundamentals. Management needs to get on the road and market the company's rapidly improving fundamentals and attractive valuation to potential new institutional holders. For the rest of us, patience is required.

The issue for the stock price isn't one of fundamentals but rather a shareholder register which requires heavy rotation and broadening into new sponsorship.

To be announced with FY results (I expect $25 million)

KBW Research:

ROCK [£2.1m; £5.1m; £3.4m; £3.0m] VANQ published a solid set of H225 results this morning (see attached delta sheet). Adjusted PBT (ex Motor charge) was £5.1m, +50% (+£1.7m) better than expectations, driven by better costs (-6%, +£7.7m) which were down -9% in the half (transformation savings and lower complaint handing costs) partially offset by higher impairments (+6%, -£5.5m). Income was broadly in-line with slightly better volumes. Management issue revised guidance, which looks broadly consistent with consensus (better costs offset by higher impairments) including ROTE FY26e low double digits (consensus 10.3%) and FY27e mid-teens (consensus 14.3%). Highlight CET1 target >14.5% against current 16.5% (albeit -2.3% in FY25).

Overall - We continue to like VANQ where the benefit of FY25 regulatory changes (lower compliant handling costs) and strong volume growth (+22%) put the bank on a clear path to sustainable, attractive profitability (KBWe c.14-16%). This is not reflected in shares trading on PE27e 6.2x and / or PTBV26e 0.8x. Outperform, TP140p

My 2p:

APIKUR had a role in representing a united front for producers when they weren't involved in discussions regarding Kurdistan oil, but now that negotiations are direct and face-to-face the need for APIKUR's voice has diminished significantly.

I doubt we will see interest on the $151 million. Rather I think we should hope to simply recover all of it. By my estimation we have recovered about $14 million already in 2H 2025 by re-billing costs-in-arrears via local sales. It is yet to be determined if the rest of the costs-in-arrears, about $106 million, can be recovered this way given SOMO is in charge of payments now. As for the remaining $30.7 million owed which is Profit Oil less Capacity Building Charge, we currently have no idea how this will be repaid. The expectation is that this piece at least will come under a separate payment arrangement with the KRG. Or perhaps it will simply be written off for the sake of moving forward. Dunno.

Anyone heard anything?

"... in July 2025, the Government of Türkiye published a notice that it will not renew the treaty governing the

ITP, which is set to expire on 27 July 2026. While media have reported that Türkiye is looking to negotiate a new

agreement with the FGI, there is no certainty on the outcome."

I'm rather surprised we aren't hearing more chatter about this given the pipeline is so critical to exports and the current agreement expires in just 5 months...

Schroders sold another 1% of the company last week

Even $16 (shared 80:20 GKP:MOL) is above our entitlement according to the PSC excluding recovery of the costs-in-arrears.

The XOFF funny business continues...

Nope. No primary.

The tiny retail offering is likely just the warm up act.

Having called this a buy at 168p I personally would not be chasing the stock at these levels. Rather I’d be looking to bank profits on any short term position from those levels. GLA.

Pump, pump it up. They've got to pump it up.

Accumulating

It will certainly be interesting to see whether all these little sub-100 share trades disappear...