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And demand destruction is already enormous.

If only we were producing oil

As for reinvestment of the dividends I'd agree re putting them back in on weakness. Don't think we've seen much of that though yet.

It's ex Div

Brent next delivery futures back below $90 as Iran says the strait is "completely open" during ceasefire.

Looking forward to the trading update in 3 weeks. Expect continued solid progress.

Come on now. The next award isn't until just after the '26 FY results next year.

Who is "they"? The big bad wolf?

XOFF in overdrive today

To be clear, I do not think valuation is stretched at current levels. I'm merely pointing out that those dividends were indeed rather special. I do expect the 'dividend balance' of $12.5 million to be paid, and another dividend of $25 million later in the year (yielding a dividend yield, if one is into such things, of 8.7% at current price levels). But nothing special. And I no longer expect production in April. Ho hum, let's see what happens.

I wonder, have we been paid for February production yet....?

The special dividends were a return of capital from the CRP. That trade is over.

Personally, I don't see them producing in April or until there's an agreement to end hostilities completely. Still a ways to go yet.

Some great quotes from 2 October, 2023 I happened to note down 2 1/2 years ago.

Pincer:

"I'm confident once this is sorted, SP of £3+ come next March, plus the divi. “ "In 6 months time, the SP will be 3x or 4x what it is now. (or more!!) Plus the divi. If you are in when it hits £5, you won't care too much if you bought in at £1.15 or £1.25”

Roxi:

"PUTUP , think you will be way out with your £3 prediction [I didn't see the price exceeding £3 on reopening of the export pipeline], once the oil is flowing and SOMO /Federal Iraq, agree to uphold the IOC,s Contracts and put their rubber stamp to it, it paints a whole different picture of the Risk Valuation on all those Companies operating in Kurdistan, that alone will add at least £1 to the value, imo. We will soon find out over the coming months."

A reminder to retain grounded expectations.

Except that production will be more like 34k bopd average this year...

The company's renewed 2024 LTIP plan was voted for overwhelmingly. No one here should complain. How did each of you vote?

A further 3.2 million zero cost LTIP options were granted, subject to vesting conditions. 9.6 million LTIP and DBP options were o/s as of Dec 31 '25 of which 616k were exercised recently. A further 141k DBP options were granted. We don't know how many old LTIP/DBP grants lapsed unvested but it is sensible to add the net 12.4 million shares to get the fully diluted shares o/s. Anyone using the undiluted share count is a fool. Thankfully the company is using excess cash to purchase shares in the market to meet option exercises rather than issuing new shares.

The question, IMO, is whether to believe that the US and Israel, and, for that matter, the rest of the international community, is prepared to step away when Iran still threatens passage through the strait. That's somewhat hard to imagine. So either hostilities continue, or even escalate, or Iran allows ship passage through the strait to normalise. If it normalises traffic to pre-war status then oil falls back sharply. If passage remains contested then hostilities continue and we might not be producing. It's one of those 'be careful what you wish for' scenarios. If only our facilities weren't so close to the border.

Everything depends on whether Iran will retain a stranglehold over Hormuz. From Morgan Stanley over a week ago:

"The market started this episode with enough buffers

to absorb the first shock. Those buffers are rapidly depleting. Products are tighter than

crude, Atlantic Basin barrels are being repriced as the marginal relief valve, and the longer

the disruption lasts, the less plausible a simple snap-back story becomes. Even if the Strait

reopens, normalization will take time. And if Iran retains long-term leverage over passage,

the oil market would be unlikely to revert fully to its prior equilibrium."

No surprises there

Good to see this coming back into vogue after a month in the doldrums

Maybe if they add up all the dividends they'll get there eventually

Personally I still have the first three weeks of April zeroed. I would not be surprised if the company wanted to wait to see if the ceasefire holds before bringing back staff and restarting production with a steady ramp. I retain my assumption of 42k bopd average production for May with an average Brent of $80. Let's see what happens... (Ho hum. Other stocks provide much more excitement currently.)

There's already another circa 9+ million unvested zero cost options o/s (post these exercises) before the upcoming LTIP award...

Golden rule of stock based compensation - when it vests, sell it immediately and deploy the funds elsewhere as already long via unvested (zero cost) options. Another LTIP award coming in the next week or so...