Member Info for PUTUP

"and paid immediately"

I don't follow their financials but DR receivable, CR revenue upon lifting and then when the cash comes in DRR cash, CR receivable.

[I focus on cash generation. The accounting policies used by these companies are deeply distorting of reality (massive mismatch between amortisation of recoverable cost capitalised to the balance sheet versus cash recovery via the PSC).]

With circa 27% annual returns between now and end next year I'm not surprised. And unless one believes there's going to be a damaging energy crisis for Vanquis customers the company is well-shielded from current geopolitical risks.

"Well C***eye you are getting your knickers in a twist today"

rog, why do you even bother engaging with that distasteful, delusional muppet? I've had him on filter for months and months.

Dream on

But if you look at the GKP stock price you'd think absolutely nothing has happened in the last month. What war?

Lucky you. I haven't traded since 1 Oct last year. I still own the last 1/3 of my original position. I may add when the stock looks oversold. But it doesn't look anything near that yet.

Give it a rest Itsa. We are just back to where we were in early February. It's as if nothing has happened since then...

XOFF/SINT shenanigans took a little break this morning but now they're back...

So far we've just seen the prior froth/giddiness blow off the stock. No 'blood on the streets' yet...

I don't expect any decision to be made re canning the dividend until the very last minute.

If you consider down 6.4% in a day "stable"... 🧐

Better to be lucky than smart. Yes, very much so.

Current weakness likely an opportunity

"Must admit I have reduced my holding by 80% this week but still a shareholder."

Legend

Stock still rich even without a shutdown. Current price still exceeds the value of my model scenario (41k production this year, upper end of prior guidance, 50k thereafter; full arrears recovery, not just cost oil bit, over two years; 15% discount rate; $63 average Brent for 2026 including $67 for January and $72 for February; $20 discount). Model scenario does NOT include a shutdown. It doesn't matter what the price of oil is when you have nothing to sell. Good luck all.

"providing the ITP pipeline is protected and fields"

That's a pretty big "if" LongStrong. Shia militia attacked US forces in Erbil today. Lashing out at US backed oil infrastructure would be a lot easier than attacking a military base. Let's see what happens...

Personally, while oil prices may spike higher initially I think such a rally will probably be short-lived. What matters most to GKP's valuation is medium to long term oil prices rather than what happens over a couple of months. I'd expect control of the Hormuz Strait to be a relative near-term priority for the US. The rally in oil we have seen leading up to this weekend (and any spike) will likely dissipate over the coming weeks or months. And longer term there's even the prospect of (rejuvenated) Iranian oil production coming back into global supply.

When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait US equities fell about 18% to 20% over the course of about 2 1/2 months. I've no idea what will happen tomorrow and the coming days, but I can tell you that as a young derivatives trader at that time it was freaking wild in the dealing room. Crazy times. For those sitting on significant cash and bravery there will be opportunities (just as there were at the outset of COVID) either here or elsewhere. Those already fully invested will likely have to decide between reducing risk or simply strapping in for the ride. Either way, have fun guys!

Anyone betting there will be a prolonged (as opposed to short and temporary) closure of the Hormuz strait is betting against the might of the US navy, not a bet I would make (particularly in light of the extensive forces deployed).

Here's hoping our infrastructure isn't attacked. One drone into just one of our two processing facilities and it's an absolute mess. Fingers and toes crossed. All eyes on 6 PM NY time tonight and then the 'opening bell' (more like a ball drop in the case of the LSE) tomorrow.

In the case of the oil price, could it be a case of 'buy the rumour, sell the fact'? We will find out soon enough...

Everything within at least a 1,000 km radius of Iran is in the 'danger area'.

A not unexpected situation. (International oil prices had already rallied 20% in anticipation.) Let's see how things unfold.

Major war in the Middle East has rarely been good for stocks in the short term. Let's see what happens on Monday. Will Brent break its 3-year resistance at $75 or will it hold?

TNAV per share was £1.43 at the end of '25. So currently trading a 0.83 trailing tangible book; 0.76x 26E tangible book and 0.66x 27E tangible book (179p per share). Returns won't meet its cost of capital before end 27/28.

Cheap but not 50% cheap.

Sorry, another 1.0% this week