Member Info for PUTUP

No

🤣🤣🤣

"I’m in this 17 years "

And still haven't learnt anything...

All his Middle East 'friends' won't now want him to stop - having poked the hornets nest, leaving the nest intact achieves nothing and leaves a more dangerous regime in place (one that has now assaulted its neighbours). Arab states will want the job finished, despite having wished it had never been started. Some form of ground assault would not surprise me at all. If it does miraculously resolve rapidly, the price of oil will go into free-fall.

(The 'countercyclical' trade now is to sell oil stocks and buy airline stocks.)

This calamity has a lot further to run (despite some thinking it would be 'over in a week')

Jan is a wealthy guy

XOFF back at work following the retracement...

No

Not close

Yes/Yes/No

Trump is probably playing the stock options and oil futures markets

Trump tying to TACO but nothing has changed in Iran and the genie is out of the bottle. This has a long way to go yet.

I'm writing off production for at least the first half of April now. Still expect oil back at $65 by 4Q. HODL!

(Bugsy still banging the same ol' tired drum.)

"It remains to be seen what changes in contract terms the submission and approval of the WoodMac Report brings with it."

I'm not expecting any other than those being negotiated (which would include, but not necessarily be limited to, pricing shifting from a fixed discount to Brent to one reflecting Shaikan's API - ie "KBT pricing" - which hasn't yet been agreed by the company but on which billing has been based for some time, the change to CBC and the interest in PO given to the KRG, the recent proposal to offset to an almost complete extent the profit oil component of the arrears against amounts previously not expected to be cash settled). Our contract remains with the KRG and the courts have supported the validity of the KRG's right to execute such contracts. Clearly he company and it's auditors have the confidence too continue booking revenue according too contract terms (even when it includes re-billing costs in the arrears) which is supportive of this view. Let's see what happens.

If the discount to Brent - including transportation costs - has indeed collapsed to $13 and change (remember, it used to be $30+) then that certainly suggests our crude has been in demand. Of course, some of the previous discount was because the KRG were selling "on-the side", but down to $13 is a dramatic and extremely valuable change however it comes. Many months ago, I listed a set of priorities for management against which they would be judged. Lowering the discount for Shaikan crude sales was one of them. (I also gave a delta to valuation for every $5 change in this discount assuming a pricing in of 50k bopd production.) Management certainly seem to be performing here.

(The question is, how much of this performance is now in the stock price? We can each make our own judgements on this. And, of course, this was just one of the items on the list.)

"Starsalign, $13.4 is obviously slighter better than $15 but not massive. "

Apologies starsalign, I had $15 in mind when I had actually been assuming using $20. If the $13.40 is sustainable it's very significant. More clarification is required but if it holds firm then it's certainly a good change.

LTIP award in two weeks

Probably the most interesting statement in the accounts:

"Although no legal right of offset exists, it is expected that $29.6 million of the past due balance will be offset against amounts due to the KRG (see note 14)."

There goes the Profit Oil less CBC component of the now $122.8 million of arrears (having recovered $28.3 million in 2025 via re-billing of costs-in-arrears). I certainly wasn't expecting this!! $30 million of value I'd expected just went poof!

Starsalign, $13.4 is obviously slighter better than $15 but not massive. Extending the interim period is a mild negative as it defers arrears recovery that little bit further.

I've been out all day and need to work through the detail in the accounts and investor call etc but I don't see anything justifying the recent surge in the stock price. A shut-in of production has currently been offset by higher expected oil prices for the remainder of the year but they're still expected to retrace significantly by year end. And growth has been deferred yet again. The risk is that the shut-in extends past the end of March. That said, retail has a habit of getting giddy and so this could easily trade up into the mid 240s in the short term before correcting.

Giddy up.

Given we already had cash as of January 21 the historical results were never going to provide anything of particular value, only points of interest in the detail. It was always going to be about the outlook and they've basically withdrawn the previous outlook and replaced it with ... nothing. On the dividend, as I thought, management were eager to maintain a dividend, but caution led them to split it in half - half now and the other half potentially as an interim in the near future.

I've already zeroed March production. April looks increasingly at risk as well. Let's see what happens.

Not a badge of honour

I hope you are right (although £3 would price in more production than they can process with existing facilities let alone drill anytime soon).

I think Israel sees an opportunity to flatten the entire region (be it Iran, Lebanon or beyond). They won't stop until either they've eliminated all regional threats or are somehow pressured by the rest of the world to stop. Currently, I don't see an off-ramp for the US and we have an utterly incompetent administration realising they've probably bitten off more than they can chew. Meanwhile, Iran is only just getting going, biding their time and a scorched earth remains a strategy. A wounded but not dead Iranian regime is going to be more dangerous than ever and I don't see how you get rid of them without putting a whole lot of boots on the ground there. Their taunting of Trump isn't surprising. For as long as they can threaten the Strait of Hormuz they can force this into an economic war.

Luckily for us, GKP's infrastructure probably falls well down Iran's regional hit list even though it would probably be some of the easiest assets to hit. But that can change in an instant.