Member Info for PUTUP

"putup says he sold at 220 as it was obvious, and not worth more than 170 blah blah"

Haven't sold any more yet truthsayer. (My model currently churns out 194p if production were to restart fully 1 April.)

Tick, tick

This war will likely be measured in months not weeks

Tick

That's old news. The Israeli's used it to time the strike on the Ayatollah. There was a very good article in the FT last week covering this.

Could get interesting...

Iran’s central military command has reiterated warnings that it will attack energy infrastructure in the region, following US strikes on Kharg Island. Iran would hit back at all such assets in the region that have US stakes or co-operate with the US.

"Plus what are they going to fund the field development plan with"

Arrears recovery. No arrears recovery, next to no field development.

Even if they're shut in for all of March I currently expect them to generate about $54 million from 2026 operations. Add to that the one-off recovery of arrears. We've just go to hope missiles or drones don't destroy a processing facility. If that happens, all bets are off.

I still expect a $25 million dividend to be announced. They need it to giddy up the stock price temporarily. They had $88 million of cash 21 January and will have been paid since for January (and maybe the first lifting for February). So plenty of excess cash on the books. Subsequent dividend will depend on shut in ending, blah blah blah.

Or a transfer to the Oslo register...

Sub-100 share trade shenanigans in overdrive today. Tells you all you need to know...

"Once he saw the US markets crashing"

They haven't crashed. Not even intra day. And gas at the pump is still cheap.

Iran's oil exports are a very small percentage of global supply (less than 5%). The loss of that would not shock markets. The issue is the Strait of Hormuz - circa 30% of global trade goes through there (including a significant percentage of oil).

In mid February when I called for profit taking on any short-term positions, the 14 day RSI climbed to its highest level since (wait for it) .... 16 June 2021. Yep, almost 5 years. It was an easy call. There was so much froth in the stock. And simply because 700 individuals purchased an average of a mere £1,250 of stock each (a pittance) at £1.71 a share (a considerably attractive discount to then prices). Lucky them. I wonder how many still hold. That froth has simply blown off. The stock remains richly valued considering current risks. For GKP it's as if there is no war going on. No way I'd be a buyer at current levels (but I'm not a seller here also). I expect the stock to be propped up as best as possible in the hope that part deux of the Oslo listing process can be executed but that's not safe water to swim in IMO. Management will be desperate to maintain the dividend for these purposes. Wake me up if it falls 10% from here, otherwise it's snooze until 2027 and fingers crossed drones don't hit one or both of our processing facilities.

"If this continues for a few weeks then there will be pressure for the Kurd oilers to pump to supply domestically as the storage facilities run dry. I would imagine military defences/anti drone capabilities will be made available as an urgent priority. They will have no choice. These companies were set up for local sales until 6months ago, so will be fairly seamless."

Personally, currently I do not anticipate any production in March

They don't want to risk the lives of personnel. Infrastructure cannot be protected, but they can protect lives (by removing people from site). Then again, they could pay out a lot of life assurance (if necessary) with the money they'll forego...

US stocks haven't tanked though. S&P 500 back to mid December levels and only 3% below all-time highs. Nothing to see yet...

Agree. Stock looks very, very rich given the risks. Price of oil for GKP is currently zero. By the time they're producing again it will be back in the $60s. Still very early days in terms of market reactions - it took 2 1/2 months for the S&P 500 to bottom when Saddam Hussein invade Kuwait. Let's see what happens...

Again, let us know what they say. We can then compare and contrast your expressed view versus theirs. Then and only then can someone make a judgement call, which may fall somewhere between the two (or not).

Very

Yes you will gain solid insight. You'll also get the chance to raise these points in the Q&A around the FY results.

Let us know when you've discussed this with the company as their understanding from working with them is materially different.

aclark@gulfkeystone.com