Member Info for PUTUP

"I'm interested in what they have been payed for exports" (sic)

As are we all

" as their cash is dwindling down."

No, their cash isn't dwindling down.

" So a dividend is highly unlikely."

No one is expecting a dividend before the FY results given management's stated policy is to announce dividends alongside their HY and FY numbers.

Wmsjames I currently assume Brent less a discount of $25 (consistent with guidance). If Brent is $65 then that's $40 a barrel realised sale price (to be thrown into the top of the PSC formula). The big goal of management, and the most immediate upside for the stock, is to have SOMO's replacement of the KRG in marketing drive that discount lower. Let's see if we get some insight from the update.

GKP hasn't provided September production yet but they have provided July and August. My estimate based on what they have disclosed is 35k bopd for total production for the Q. They have a 61.5% working interest in the profits from the field (80% interest in cost recovery).

EV can mean Equity Value. Many would use EntV to highlight the distinction.

Ontarget, it's good to see someone contributing to the board with some analysis and thought rather than peasant-like mudslinging. A couple of things you should note, however, with respect to your comparison

1. re production, you are comparing a working interest figure for SH with a total field production figure for GKP (the working interest equivalent would be a lot lower - 61.5% of the figure you posted)

2. GKP's cash is closer to $75 million

3. Note 'revenues' are easily very distorted when historical cost recovery is high (costs recovered > costs incurred for any period) (see below)

4. when comparing firms you should use Enterprise Value and not simply Equity Value (and may it clear which you are using) and when it comes to calculating Enterprise Value you should use fully diluted market cap for Equity Value (GKP's = £420 million) given all the nil-cost options o/s and adjust for net debt/cash. There's also the interesting question of what to do with the 'abnormal' level of receivables. Here there's an argument to be made that they should be treated as 'near cash' with the unrecovered balance deducted from FD EqV which obviously reduces the calculated Ent Val (and lowers any multiple based thereon). [Even if one does this, GKP trades at a healthy 7x multiple of one year forward cash flow (excl arrears recovery) - depending on expectations for how 2026 goes of course.]

I don't follow Shamaran particularly closely and so can't comment further than that on your comparison but it's probably worth making those corrections and checking the rest before backing your conclusions with cash.

(FWIW focusing on depreciation and book accounting - as opposed to cash generation - is a mistake in my view due to the gross distortions accounting standards lead to with these companies. There's a massive mismatch between depreciation and rates of cost recovery and at the end of the day the assets are owned by the KRG with IOC expenditures paid back by the KRG via the cost recovery mechanism. The only real asset 'owned' by the IOC in this regard is off-balance sheet - the Cost Recovery Pool - and in the case of GKP it is fully recovered except for the balance in the receivables.)

Triplex caused by bad software crashing!

The stock has rallied 8% since I changed my rating to a Buy back at the end of November last year. Brent is largely unchanged versus then, held up by tensions in the Gulf. Given my expectation of circa 15% returns (although with some upside potential if the company green-lights investment) the stock has come a long way quickly. Hence back to a Hold as I wouldn't chase it up here. To each their own though.

I said back then:

"If you (as I do):

1. assume contractual sanctity/legality

2. believe in $60 Brent or better over the long term

3. assume a $25 or lower discount to Brent for Shaikan crude

4. assume 100% of production is exported

5. assume the arrears (now about $140m to GKP) will be recovered evenly over the next two years (or sooner)

6. are prepared to pay now for 50k bopd production (about 20% above current production)

then the stock ought to provide healthy 15%+ returns from here, supported by a 10% dividend yield for the next couple of years anyway (while the arrears are being recovered), and the potential for upside as/when the company has better visibility on growth beyond 50k (I don't think we get back to 50k until 2027). "

We haven't had any updates (good or bad) on any of these factors, except very slightly better production figures for 'December to date'. Hopefully announcements supporting the factors I list above as 'assumed already' are forthcoming in the very near future.

I also said "That said, I do believe the stock has the potential to trade into the low 160s/high 150s on any setbacks (or, frankly, even in boredom) and oil price weakness. That's where technical support resides. If it does, that may well be an even more attractive entry point." We saw a dip into the high 160s but not significant weakness. Oil prices sagged also but were revived by tension in the Gulf. Those who watch inventory data will see that these have continued to climb. It's still early days into 2026 and 16 days a quarter doesn't make. Let's see what happens. Good technical support for the stock remains in the low 160s.

Hopefully the company's update next week or the week after has good news (ideally around realised export prices).

The stock has rallied 8% since I changed my rating to a Buy back at the end of November last year. Brent is largely unchanged versus then, held up by tensions in the Gulf. Given my expectation of circa 15% returns (although with some upside potential if the company green-lights investment) the stock has come a long way quickly. Hence back to a Hold as I wouldn't chase it up here. To each their own though.

I said back then:

"If you (as I do):

1. assume contractual sanctity/legality

2. believe in $60 Brent or better over the long term

3. assume a $25 or lower discount to Brent for Shaikan crude

4. assume 100% of production is exported

5. assume the arrears (now about $140m to GKP) will be recovered evenly over the next two years (or sooner)

6. are prepared to pay now for 50k bopd production (about 20% above current production)

then the stock ought to provide healthy 15%+ returns from here, supported by a 10% dividend yield for the next couple of years anyway (while the arrears are being recovered), and the potential for upside as/when the company has better visibility on growth beyond 50k (I don't think we get back to 50k until 2027). "

We haven't had any updates (good or bad) on any of these factors, except very slightly better production figures for 'December to date'. Hopefully announcements supporting the factors I list above as 'assumed already' are forthcoming in the very near future.

I also said "That said, I do believe the stock has the potential to trade into the low 160s/high 150s on any setbacks (or, frankly, even in boredom) and oil price weakness. That's where technical support resides. If it does, that may well be an even more attractive entry point." We saw a dip into the high 160s but not significant weakness. Oil prices sagged also but were revived by tension in the Gulf. Those who watch inventory data will see that these have continued to climb. It's still early days into 2026 and 16 days a quarter doesn't make. Let's see what happens. Good technical support for the stock remains in the low 160s.

Hopefully the company's update next week or the week after has good news (ideally around realised export prices).

The stock has rallied 8% since I changed my rating to a Buy back at the end of November last year. Brent is largely unchanged versus then, held up by tensions in the Gulf. Given my expectation of circa 15% returns (although with some upside potential if the company green-lights investment) the stock has come a long way quickly. Hence back to a Hold as I wouldn't chase it up here. To each their own though.

I said back then:

"If you (as I do):

1. assume contractual sanctity/legality

2. believe in $60 Brent or better over the long term

3. assume a $25 or lower discount to Brent for Shaikan crude

4. assume 100% of production is exported

5. assume the arrears (now about $140m to GKP) will be recovered evenly over the next two years (or sooner)

6. are prepared to pay now for 50k bopd production (about 20% above current production)

then the stock ought to provide healthy 15%+ returns from here, supported by a 10% dividend yield for the next couple of years anyway (while the arrears are being recovered), and the potential for upside as/when the company has better visibility on growth beyond 50k (I don't think we get back to 50k until 2027). "

We haven't had any updates (good or bad) on any of these factors, except very slightly better production figures for 'December to date'. Hopefully announcements supporting the factors I list above as 'assumed already' are forthcoming in the very near future.

I also said "That said, I do believe the stock has the potential to trade into the low 160s/high 150s on any setbacks (or, frankly, even in boredom) and oil price weakness. That's where technical support resides. If it does, that may well be an even more attractive entry point." We saw a dip into the high 160s but not significant weakness. Oil prices sagged also but were revived by tension in the Gulf. Those who watch inventory data will see that these have continued to climb. It's still early days into 2026 and 16 days a quarter doesn't make. Let's see what happens. Good technical support for the stock remains in the low 160s.

Hopefully the company's update next week or the week after has good news (ideally around realised export prices).

Pg 18 of the company's 2025 half year results presentation. It never ceases to amaze me how many here don't understand the terms of how GKP gets paid.

Maybe. I'd bet the 22 million is only until the end of December as January incomplete but who knows. Then - very roughly - payments for 2/3 of production (Sep stub, October and November) => 214 / 14.67 million barrels = $14.59 a barrel. At any rate, this figure is irrelevant as it is only provisional. What we really need to know is the realised price for Shaikan oil. Brent averaged $63.80 for November (for example). A discount of the old $23.20 plus $2 for KBT would yield $38.60 as a realised sale price. Under the PSC - excluding re-billing costs-in-arrears - assuming a volume of 43,750 bopd average, the Contractor would get a $ amount equivalent to approximately $13 a barrel (before deduction of the CBC paid by GKP). I would really like to have a better view on actual discounts to Brent in October, November and December. Even a few dollars per barrel has a decent impact on valuation.

12 or 22?

Latest articles have the latter, no?

I'd expect WM to have the contracts, even if not passed on to SOMO, and be fully briefed on agreed (but not yet documented/ratified) amendments such as the ones the company has disclosed (eg KRG participation in profit oil in return for a lower CBC), and to sit down with each company and discuss each invoice to the extent necessary. They are being used for that very reason - because simply sharing the contacts and having direct discussions has been problematic for reasons that have already been articulated.

Invstrat, you raise an interesting point. First, though, WM isn't auditing SOMO. They are auditing whether IOC invoices comply with their contracts. So who audits SOMO's sales ability, ie whether it has indeed achieved best price for all parties? No one as far as I can see.

Any direct pilfering by the KRG from the IOCs (as opposed to pilfering revenues from the regional budget which is likely a lot easier) could only have been via realised prices or transportation costs (which were deducted therefrom). The only check and balance the IOCs have had or will have in this regard is the right to (however practical or impractical) to market their share of production independently of the KRG and now SOMO...

We will have to see. Fingers crossed and all that. IMO recent strength in GKP is solely because Brent has rallied in the short term as a result of current geopolitical events (and arguably it has lagged that) and little to do with GKP specific factors. (The good news is if it keeps rallying the chances of an Oslo listing increase. Some here think that's up to management but they are, again, mistaken.)

Starsalign, I understand he sole responsibility of Wood MacKenzie is to confirm to SOMO that invoices are in line with contracts. Nothing more. I'm not expecting them to report much if anything other than that. Likely the only potentially contentious issue would be if an IOC was claiming their so-called 'full entitlement' when that doubles up with the arrears ie WM calls them out on claiming full cost recovery potential when those costs have already been invoiced in the arrears. As we know, the arrears are a completely different discussion and with the KRG, not WM/SOMO. So the most important set of discussions are, in my opinion, those happening with the KRG. Separately again is the issue of what prices are being yielded from the new selling mechanism and whether SOMO decides to price each IOC contributed grade separately. SOMO is in charge of sales and distribution but it doesn't control field development nor audit costs etc.

The good thing about having a spreadsheet is that you can easily run sensitivities to key assumptions, for example by using the Table function. A plan beats no plan each and every time.

PSC terms will be honoured. Such a low discount would be amazing and never achieved before. GKP management are still guiding to Brent less $25 although I hear demand for heavy sour has been strong of late leading to tighter discounts vs Brent.

LOL. I'm sure Starsalign (whoever he or she is) loves being called a 'glove puppet'.

By all means listen to the muppets if you want to. They've all been hosed due to their own stupidity and will likely be again due to their inability to learn from their mistakes. Cooler heads will make efforts to understand the company's business and prospects better and make investment decisions based on that rather than wishful thinking. To the muppets, we salute you - you've created the opportunity for us to make money from you!

"This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view" - Nah!

"this video might’ve been created by a 15 year old in his bedroom on an £80 iPad."

It was more than likely written by one of the muppets on my filter list. Beware.