Member Info for PUTUP

Thanks HGNAHMED. It's a pity that almost even single item they mention is incorrect. To list a few: the nature of what the audit is about (it has nothing to do with the arrears), December production (they mention 47,900 bopd in December while the company disclosed 44,000 bopd December to date on 10 December and hasn't made further disclosure), the current amount of arrears, the 'netback' (no way it jumps to $52 a barrel ie Brent less $10), they got the cash balance wrong by $25 million ie overstated it by 1/3, they talk about historical capex 2025 which we know has been minimised as much as absolutely possible as signalling confidence etc etc. It's an incredibly poor piece of work. Complete BS.

IMO GKP remains a Buy at current levels, and especially on weakness (as I've previously stated) but not on the basis of that crap analysis.

As I understand it, their principal job is to review the invoices from the interim period production and compare them with the terms of the individual IOC contracts with the KRG - and that such period would last for approx three months. (During such period the IOCs were to also try to negotiate a settlement programme for the arrears and other amendments to contracts which had been agreed historically but not documented.) The last of these (3) months has just concluded and presumably the invoice of such has only recently been submitted (if at all yet). So one would expect their work to be on-going and that also there's a process by which they need to report back to SOMO their findings. So I doubt anything with respect to the consultant is delayed (although, of course, it could be), the process is likely continuing and it likely has some way to go. As I said previously, we will have to wait to see if the next update announces results from all these discussions or whether the verbiage "we continue to engage" still applies...

Indeed. Their current production is almost insignificant to affect spot prices and their long-term potential currently has high break-evens and enormous risk. Hence the muted reaction in international markets to the kidnapping.

Indeed, and that included the provisional payment for October production with November due this month.

The "2022 dividend year" was funded by huge cost historical recovery. The only bit of that trade that's left is sitting in the unrecovered arrears. These are now down to about $137 million. I do expect arrears recovery to support maintenance of dividends while capex increases, but expect dividends to remain at circa 2 x $25 million per annum while that arrears recovery lasts. Personally I would not expect us to get interest on the arrears but one never knows.

PS: I'm not aware of any "delay of Wood Mac starting their audit".

Ah good. Let's see how much detail it contains. Hopefully discussions with the KRG and the review of the independent consultant have progressed enough to reach disclosable resolutions in addition to guidance on capex etc. Otherwise the update will likely fall flat (again).

While I'm hopeful of one I'm not expecting a January update unless there's a breakthrough on receivables etc... Let's see.

There are a bunch of 'pencilled' agreements that have been adopted but not formally documented. They have been summarised by management on several occasions. One example is the granting of a share in the 'profit oil' to the KRG in return for a reduction in CBC.

We should receive the (provisional) payment for November production very soon. I'm assuming 43,750 average bopd which at $14 a barrel means a receipt of $14.7m to GKP (versus my estimate of their contract entitlement excluding re-billing of costs-in-arrears of $12.2m). Hopefully management announces the receipt rather than leaving us hanging... Hopefully it comes with news on a plan for arrears and other adjustments required to our contract...

While the US prepares for another attempt to seize it (Marinera) ...

Europe is the slow bus trample...

Haha. What's NATO anymore? Europe is already finding it is on its own and needs to transition (rapidly) to self-sufficiency.

Nah. The amount of investment being undertaken in the sector currently is absolutely massive. And quantum computing will, amongst other things, make AI much more efficient.

As soon as the US has developed enough domestic chip manufacturing capability it will throw Taiwan under the bus. No way the US goes to war for Taiwan if it doesn't absolutely have to. (Meanwhile Europe just flaps around in the breeze.)

A new year. Still one of transition for Vanquis but visibility on real growth improving significantly. I still expect a steady climb to at least 140p per share in the relative near term. Bring it on!

Soon ICE will have an offshore depot for deportees. Colombia and Cuba next. Then ICE will really sweep through Southern Florida. Oil and racism. "Win win" for el Presidente.

Much easier to capture Maduro and open up Venezuela’s production capacity than get the KRG and ICG to agree to anything? 🤪

1q was lowered from 60 to 57.50

2q from 60 to 55

3q from 60 to 57.50

4q left unchanged at 60

1h 27 unchanged at 60

2h 27 unchanged at 65

Morgan Stanley yesterday lowered their estimates for Brent for first half 2026

Outlook 2026: Letting the

Curve Do the Work

The expected surplus arrived in 2H25 and is likely to grow larger

in 1H26. Rising inventories will require a steeper contango across

the entire Brent curve, putting pressure on front-month prices.

However, as the long-end is likely to stay resilient, spot prices

should find support in the mid/upper-50s.

Exhibit 2 : for a period

We see Brent falling to the mid-50s

Key Takeaways

OPEC and non-OPEC supply ended 2025 at a high level, setting the market up for

a 1.9 mb/d surplus in 2026 – large, but a lower estimate than from others

With limits to oil-in-transit, this surplus will eventually become visible in key

pricing centers too, requiring a steeper contango across the entire curve

However, deferred prices are likely to stay resilient, allowing spot Brent prices to

find support in the mid-50s – the curve does the work

The global surplus peaks in mid-2026; with little sequential growth in both OPEC

and non-OPEC supply, demand growth steadily erodes the surplus by late 2027

Following production increases, OPEC would have room to cut, but we suspect

its main focus in 2026 will be agreeing a new framework for 2027 and beyond

If we assume Somo doesn’t want to pay KRG arrears, $14 a barrel is already above their entitlement

I sold 2/3 of my position. Will add on real weakness.