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I don't look at Twit/X and certainly try to avoid looking at any cr*p posted by that lunatic. You can start by comparing that versus the company's publication in February. The big difference is that the company's list aggregates the large retail brokerages. So the likes of Hargreaves Lansdowne, Interactive Investor, Halifax, Barclays etc make it to that list whereas the other doesn't bother since ownership within those custodians is spread across a lot of minnows. There's a ton of churn in retail.
Where are you getting your 'Top 30 Holders' list from? Most aren't particularly accurate as quite a good deal of digging is needed to get to true beneficial ownership. Typically such is done via investor questionnaires. The top 10 shareholders own just over 61% of the company.
Re Lloyds: "Equiniti Financial Services Limited (EFSL) acts as custodian and execution-only stockbroker for your shares."
"The IOC's need to again act together and next gentle increase the price of the crude they are producing "
Belgrano, you assume that the IOCs are negotiating prices. I think this is a big mistake.
They do have the right to sell their share of PRODUCTION (as iterated by Soden and in contrast to the BS posted here by Paul and all his monikers) but that right to do so is embedded in a contract that Baghdad deems unlawful. So they would have to tread very carefully and I doubt they feel free to completely independently market their own share of oil production separately from that delivered to the KRG/Iraq.
People also see to have forgotten the discounts to Brent that prevailed prior to the pipeline closure which reflected transportation fees and a quality discount. They averaged $34 a barrel in the period Sep '22 to Feb '23. So a local price of, for example, $30 a barrel equates to $64 Brent. While the difference between this and current Brent ($79) is significant it's not massive. Also, importantly, local refineries likely sell their refined products into the local market and the 'arbitrage' versus Brent is likely unavailable.
"are not standing by watching us pocket $39/bbl for local sales "
Who is "we"? GKP doesn't pocket anywhere near that amount - even if they could sell the oil for $39 a barrel.
And don't forget, local sales are at the grace of SOMO...
That was for the last payment received and actually it was more like $4.14 per barrel PO less CBC (Sep '22 production)
I would be shocked if they get a fixed $ per barrel regardless of the price the oil is sold at...
Price signals in the oil market tell a story of softening fundamentals: not only has the flat price come down in recent weeks, but physical differentials in the North Sea market have weakened, the Dated-to-Frontline swap has rolled over, the CFD curve is no longer as backwardated, and West African crudes have lost their premium - all telltale signs that the oil market is not as tight as it was a few months ago.
Looking ahead, much depend on OPEC's upcoming production decisions. Demand growth this year has been strong: at ~2.2 mb/d, demand grew well above the historical trend rate. However, this is likely to slow down in 2024 – we peg next year's growth at ~1.2 mb/d.
At the same time, growth in non-OPEC supply will likely also slow but remain significant. Notwithstanding a significant slowdown in US shale in 2024, non-OPEC production will likely still grow by ~1.4 mb/d. That is less than growth of 2.2 mb/d in 2023, but would still be sufficient to meet all global demand growth.
Surprisingly, this does not necessarily change in 2025 or 2026 either. Despite low levels of upstream capex in 2020/21, the pipeline of non-OPEC projects alone appears sufficient to meet all global demand growth in the next few years at least.
Taken together, this leaves little room in the oil market for additional OPEC oil. We estimate the 'call-on-OPEC' at ~28.3 mb/d, practically unchanged for the fourth consecutive year. Still, by now, OPEC spare capacity is close to ~5 mb/d – near its 20-year high – and OPEC market share has already declined ~220bp over the last year.
Although this creates longer-term tension in the oil market, OPEC has previously indicated – in words but also in action – a strong intention to balance the market. We already incorporated an extension in our supply/demand model for Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut to end-1Q24 several months ago. However, we now assume that this will be further extended to end-2Q24 and that Saudi Arabia's production will increase only gradually during 2H24, but remain (well) below its formal OPEC quota of 10.5 mb/d during that period.
On that trajectory, global inventories would remain broadly unchanged, which would support Brent prices around the mid-$80s, we estimate. Hence, we leave our price forecasts unchanged.
Needless to say, there are risks to either side of this forecast. During the summer, Saudi Arabia curtailed exports significantly, falling to ~5.6 mb/d in Sept, down from ~7.4 mb/d during April. This gave a considerable jolt to oil markets, and would do so again if repeated.
At the same time, OPEC market share is under long-term pressure, and history also warns of the risk this eventually poses. If OPEC ever were to decide to reclaim its lost market share, downside risk to prices would also be significant.
"in genel for example why are insiders buyers buying up all the shares at these levels, just to lose money? "
So far Bilgin Grup Doğalgaz A.Ş. has lost £1.1 million on its purchases (-19%). They've bought 5.89 million shares (roughly 2% of the company) at an average of 98p versus a current price of 79p (versus a low of 74.06p).
Date Number of Shares Price
29-Mar 16,911 1.092474
29-Mar 220,000 1.168145
3-Apr 213,488 1.131264
2-May 300,000 1.0867
2-May 100,000 1.095
30-May 750,000 1.1108
30-May 25,000 1.11
1-Jun 450,000 1.118
1-Jun 100,000 1.117
7-Jun 630,000 1.2
18-Oct 2,976,747 0.83
18-Oct 107,000 0.8577
Why on earth would you think something so difficult, something so important, something where the difference of opinion is so large, would take just a few days to agree?
And what makes you think the company is producing 50k bopd?
!!!
Not value neutral. They distributed money to shareholders. So value down by the amount of the distribution. Apart from that, value neutral.
Those who sold into the buyback were smart (or just lucky) in hindsight. Those who increased their investment by not taking their share of the distribution did not do so well. The "Board believes" bit is standard blah blah blah. Don't fall for it. Separate the rhetoric from reality.
Of course there could be any number of post-transaction factors as to why the share price fell. Looks like a completely cr*p little company. Actually, it is a very good example of why you should separate the rhetoric from reality and why, given future uncertainty, you can't look back with hindsight and say management did a great or poor job. They just distributed cash. Shareholders that held got it wrong. Those that sold got it right. In hindsight. Who knows? Could have gone the other way. But it didn't.
Dead horse still being flogged.
(Stock held in treasury are not - and should not be - counted in the calculation of market cap.)
Belgrano you need to add the pricing mechanism to the list (beyond transportation). How the price for Shaikan crude is determined relative to an observable benchmark. Still lots of questions as to what blend Shaikan will feed into and at what (relative) price. Under the 'old regime' we used to have a relatively stable discount to Brent (including transportation) of $23.2 a barrel. Then the KBT discount was introduced to better reflect the quality of Shaikan crude. For the (brief) period in which we had published data for this additional KBT discount, it averaged $11 a barrel. That was a dramatic change.
Still a lot to be worked through and, with it, uncertainty.