Member Info for PUTUP

Lastly, the receipt would be more like $12.4 million were it based on the contract and no re-billing of costs-in-arrears. (With circa $7.6m of that being recovery of October costs.) All +/-

43k*31*14*0.8=14,929.6 K

Although I could be wrong! I have $14.9m received on a provisional basis, assuming average production of 43k. My YE cash estimate with that is $77m so looks like that's a little high but close enough for my work.

My model spits out 172p for YE '25 on a fully diluted basis. Buy on weakness. I've listed previously key assumptions and risks.

Starsalign, the cash balance suggests they've been paid for all of October production

Maybe you don't. I'm expecting a $25 million dividend to be announced with the full year results.

Norges banking profits into year end

Although rough numbers. Maybe the withholding for transportation went up a bit. Who knows... At any rate, just a provisional payment. Transportation charges will revert to being deducted from the realised price again in the actual calculation as they were before.

Very much a pity there's no progress they can report on:

"The Company is progressing its negotiations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) regarding a number of historical Shaikan commercial matters, including the settlement of past oil sales arrears and other KRG-related assets and liabilities, and will provide an update in due course"

Starsalign,

(16-2)/(0.36+0.1)=30.435 which they have rounded to $30

That's it. Nothing to do with the actual price oil was sold at. Only provisional in any event. Only relevant to estimating cash over this interim period and not what the company will actually receive when all is said and done.

(My estimate for YE cash is $77 +/- assuming they get payment for all of October and the September stub. All close enough for my purposes.)

All as expected. Ho hum.

"Did the company receive $30/bbl for their exported barrels"

The $30 is merely a gross up of the $16 interim payment amount (since the KRG receives none of the $16). This has been discussed already. It has nothing to do with the export price achieved. And, yes, it's an odd way to characterise it.

The oil market faces a “super glut” next year as a burst of new supply collides with weakness in the global economy, one of the world’s biggest commodity traders has warned.

Saad Rahim, chief economist of Trafigura, said on Tuesday that new drilling projects and slowing demand growth were likely to weigh further on already depressed crude prices next year.

“Whether it’s a glut, or a super glut, it’s hard to get away from that,” Rahim said in remarks alongside the company’s annual results.

"$63-$7-$4/$5-$2/$4"

That would be very good!!!

🤣 closing auction

The flip side is it doesn't have a lot of capital at risk (anymore) and need not invest heavily again.

Currently, GKP's capital is 'invested' only in the receivables and the need to hold a liquidity balance in cash. The company only 'invests' by deploying capex and recoverable costs and recovering them with a delay. If the delay was zero there'd be no capital at risk. The CRP (and cash on hand and, unfortunately today, the receivables) is the capital deployed. The CRP adjusted for the receivables is now basically zero. GKP acts as agent for the KRG and earns a clip on every barrel.

This is why recent years have been so transformational - and optically distorted: the company finally recouped (and returned to investors) the vast sums of money it had put at risk (invested in the CRP). The final bit got stuck when the KRG stopped paying i.e. in the arrears. Had the company not been restructured, all that capital recovery would have gone to paying off debt. Why do you think distressed debt investors bought the deeply discount debt, shorted the equity and swapped the debt for equity in the restructuring? There was a big off-balance sheet asset in the CRP.

Even at lower oil prices we still earn a clip, just not as much as when oil is higher. (November was likely something around $3.40 a barrel. Profit oil - CBC per barrel.) The more we reduce capital deployed, by recovering the last of the CRP 'investment' stuck in the arrears and returning it to shareholders, the better. "Same" clip but with lower capital deployed = better returns. Higher oil prices or volumes allow for more cost recovery without 'investing' in the CRP (spending ahead of recovery from the KRG) => more barrels to learn a clip on. Anyone here can work out, based on current contract terms, the amount of recoverable costs that can fit within a given volume and realised price and then derive from that how much of that can be capex. Some of that capex is needed just to keep production flat. Above that minimum figure has the potential to yield growth.

You completely misunderstand the business model. GKP actually works for a lot less than $10 a barrel. Even in late '22 when Brent was in the $90s GKP was working for less than $5 a barrel.

It's only been a week or so that sanctions on Lukoil have taken affect (post the wind-down period).

Why would anyone be expecting a bank balance over $100m? Assuming they get two receipts in before year end (the first for the stub prior in September and the first few days of October and the second for the rest of October production) they'll still be lucky to clear $80m. (I expect $77 million +/-)

starsalign, I'm using $14 i.e. a hold-back of $2 for transportation.

Current share price is exactly in line with my model. If you (as I do):

1. assume contractual sanctity/legality

2. believe in $60 Brent or better over the long term

3. assume a $25 or lower discount to Brent for Shaikan crude

4. assume 100% of production is exported

5. assume the arrears (now about $140m to GKP) will be recovered evenly over the next two years (or sooner)

6. are prepared to pay now for 50k bopd production (about 20% above current production)

then the stock ought to provide healthy 15%+ returns from here, supported by a 10% dividend yield for the next couple of years anyway (while the arrears are being recovered), and the potential for upside as/when the company has better visibility on growth beyond 50k (I don't think we get back to 50k until 2027). That said, I do believe the stock has the potential to trade into the low 160s/high 150s on any setbacks (or, frankly, even in boredom) and oil price weakness. That's where technical support resides. If it does, that may well be an even more attractive entry point.

Ho hum

(Oh and for those that are arithmetically challenged, paying up today for a doubling of my production assumption to 100k bopd doesn't - obviously - double the implied stock price when about 38% of the company's equity value is 'invested' in cash and delinquent receivables.)

Key Agency Revisions –

We summarise November oil market forecasts from the IEA, EIA

and OPEC. Balance surpluses grew again this month, as IEA and

EIA upgraded US supply estimates alongside small raises to

OPEC output. The IEA now sees a massive 4.1 mb/d market

surplus in 2026.

Key Takeaways

IEA – Small upgrades made to China demand but offset by upgrades to US

supply. Now sees a massive +4.1 mb/d S/D surplus in 2026, up 0.1 mb/d MoM.

OPEC – Demand estimates left unchanged MoM, still sees +1.3 mb/d of demand

growth in 2025 and +1.4 mb/d in 2026.

EIA – Downgraded India demand growth estimates while raising US supply

forecasts. Now sees a market surplus of 2.2 mb/d in 2026.

Summary – IEA and EIA S/D balances for 2025 and 2026 have weakened for the

sixth consecutive month, on higher OPEC and non-OPEC supply estimates.

Dude, I was being facetious obviously (hence the ' ' ). It's an old adage to mock people such as yourself. Clearly, for EVERY seller there is a buyer and vice versa - else there'd be no trade. Muppet.

'more sellers than buyers'