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174 was the first of the levels I was expecting

What “none payment”? (sic) The plan, which was celebrated all the way up to 226p, has always been for the first payment (for October production) to be made in December.

Who is “they”? The big bad bogeyman? Always keen to blame a third party. The reality is the stock got way ahead of itself on retail euphoria and has simply settled back to more reasonable levels. Ho hum. Rinse. Repeat.

"So much for the pipeline agreement and SOMO. A complete white elephant that is destroying share price value."

A bit early to say this Itsa. So far all is going to plan. You might not like the plan, but things are currently proceeding as announced.

"And oil going into the 50s or maybe 40s isn't helping."

I agree it will dip into the 50s, but more often next year. A dip into the 40s would only happen in a global recession IMO (which I do not expect).

Not to say that the GKP share price might not fall further - personally I don't believe we have seen the bottom just yet - but, so far at least, everything is going to plan and the oil price is generally tracking expectations. No need for doomsday mongering just yet.

I have already posted the key takeaways section from the latest report (and previous ones). I'm not going to copy and paste a 26 page report.

Of course have your own view GED, but large investment banks and other oil analysts have very large teams already digging deeper with access to much better data than any of us do. I'm merely sharing the views of the one I follow the most. Their full reports make very good reading for anyone invested in the O&G sector. 🤷

In that post I said: "So, from a working interest in profit oil split of 80/20 to 61.5/18.5/20 (GKP/MOL/KRG) in return for a reduction in the CBC (accounts book 30% with offsetting accrual but cash deduction 20% - see footnotes). Now the working interest in profit oil is different from the working interest in cost oil etc."

Firstly, which I think addresses your question, I understand the KRG don't get any of the "16-2" provisional payment. I'm actually not bothering to model the provisional payment structure since it is just temporary (3 months only). I model what I expect according to the PSC terms => implicitly assuming the rebalancing after the three month provisional period will wash everything back to that. (There will be timing differences month to month over the period but these will normalise.) Separately, I provided a rough estimate for YE cash which IS affected by the provisional payment rather than the PSC amounts since the reconciliation will occur after year end. In essence, sometime in the 1Q everything ought to balance out to the PSC amounts. (And cash balances in March are going to guide shareholder distributions rather than those at year end.) Of course, this relies on the expectation that the independent consultant agrees with the PSC invoice amounts, the ICG agree with/rely on the consultant and any difference versus the provisional payment is settled. So again, there's a lot that needs to go right, but for now that's the agreed plan we all hope everyone will follow. It's only a couple of weeks until the consultant is working through the first of the provisional months.

You are making a big mistake with that thinking ValueS. It's not fixed at all.

($16-2)/bbl is a provisional payment only (applying for 3 months only) which will be adjusted to the actual contract-determined amount once reviewed.

[$16-2 also exceeds the amount GKP/MOL would currently receive were it not for the costs in the arrears. Since those costs haven't been recovered there's an argument for invoicing them again but if the arrears, and the cost component therein, come under a separate arrangement GKP/MOL will be paying back some of the 16-2.]

Apologies. "And introduced a forecast for 1Q '27 of $65" should have been "And introduced a forecast for 2H '27 of $65."

Across a broad range of data providers, estimates of OPEC production have diverged sharply this year. Our suspicion, however, is that the higher ones are likely more accurate. In this note, we discuss what this might mean for spare capacity, demand and the pace at which the market might rebalance.

We reduce our near-term Brent forecasts modestly further, but introduce a $65/bbl forecast for 2H27 reflecting our expectation that the oil market will start to rebalance by then.

Key Takeaways

The oil market faces a significant surplus in coming quarters. There is no change

to our near-term outlook; first, we see downwards risks.

This year we note a sharp divergence in OPEC production estimates amongst key

data providers. We think that the higher ones are likely more accurate.

If so, this shines a different light on recent OPEC quota increases – most supply is

already here – as well as remaining spare capacity.

Also, if supply has been higher, it has likely been consumed rather than stored.

This also raises the possibility that demand trends have been firmer.

The global surplus likely peaks at a high 3 mb/d in 1H26. With the observations

above. However, we can see a path towards a return to balance by 2H27.

--------

So they reduced their forecast for Brent in 1Q and 2Q 2026 to $57.50 from $60. Left 3Q and 4Q 2026 at $60. Left 1H 2027 at $60 also. And introduced a forecast for 1Q '27 of $65. (All averages for the period with variability within each period above and below the average.)

Well that broke

Actions speak louder than words. I clearly indicated I was a seller. I don't feel the need to be clearer at the time.

Congrats on your trading.

If you really want to know: sales at 200p, 201, 206, 219, 225, 225.33. And, yes, with hindsight I needed to be more aggressive around 225 but had staggered sell orders. I would have preferred to sell the lot but it's fine. I have a long minimum hold and so little interest in short term trading but will announce shorter term trading calls if I feel like it alongside longer term views. If the stock falls into the low 150s or represents deep value again I might consider buying again. If not I don't care. And I'm very happy to sell spikes well above £2. In between, I'm happy to collect my expected 15% return. For a very long time the stock traded at a very deep discount to my (inherently somewhat conservative) valuation analysis. That drove me to purchase a sizeable position. It has paid off handsomely. More recently the stock has traded at a substantial premium. That has influenced my bias to be a seller.

As we have discussed before, $16/$14 provides for some cost-oil-in-arrears recovery. Were it not for the arrears GKP/MOL would have to refund some of the provisional payment.

If you assume, in perpetuity, 50k production (well above current), $60 Brent, $25 discount to Brent, 15% discount rate, arrears recovered over two years => fair value end Oct of circa 171p per FD share.

Not at all surprised the stock has pulled back. Likely has further to go. Glad I sold more than half my stake between £2 and 225p and change. Nonetheless, as or if the stock pushes down into the low 170s both valuation and technical support appear.

Analysts expect further pressure on Brent in 2026 with dips into the 50s which could be painful for GKP at times but also believe restocking will leave the average price around $60 before potential gains in later years. Hence I use $60 Brent for 2026 and beyond.

Ho hum.

Sure. The "amount due", though, in this instance is rather straightforward: volume x $16 - $2 transportation. Provisional payment due one month after the end of the production month in question. Then there's the actual invoice according to PSC terms for October, also prepared and sent early November and reviewed by the consultant. Same occurs for November and December production. All honky dory => Equalisation payment made (post review relating to December or month by month I'm not sure although I'd assume the former). Invoices thereafter prepared and sent in accordance with PSC terms. The marketer appointed by SOMO (and the IOCs) is regularly reporting volumes received/sold and sales prices, and so invoices (and, if applicable, provisional payments due) can be prepared/calculated at the end of each month. In other words, I'd expect the company to know what it is due, both on a provisional and full PSC terms basis, on a daily basis and for October as a whole by very early November (within a day or so latest of the month end).

Of course, there's a lot that needs to go right and this can all blow up but that's the plan we all hope will succeed. Yes, the proof will be in the plan actually working. Retail just got way too carried away above £2 a share... and forecasted oil surpluses have recently become more visible in storage and that's finally weighing on spot oil prices. Personally, I still expect a print in the 170s before the stock moves much higher (if at all). We will have to see what happens.

No one expects the first payment (for October production) until December. This has been made absolutely clear.

Close enough

Rough estimate only: Cash end August pro forma for the div was circa $81 million. 4 months until end of year. Assume paid in advance for September. Paid provisional payment ($14 per barrel, net of transportation, x 0.8) for October production in December. I expect cash end December to be roughly the same as 27 August to $1-2m less. I reckon we have already recovered about $12 million of the $151 million in arrears.

(I expect a dividend of $20-25 million with the year end results announcement in March. Those expecting a special dividend are bonkers.)

Itsa, you are perpetually bearish. Caution is sensible at all times but if you really think we are headed for the 90s best sell up and spend your time elsewhere. Maybe you are just here for the sport of winding people up. Also, make your own attempt at answering your questions below first.

Personally, I think there's currently solid valuation and technical support in the mid to low 170s and further technical support in the mid 150s. Of course, there's still risk - particularly in this transitional period - and analysts do expect oil prices to fall further next year, but if the stock falls significantly below those levels let alone into the 90s it would likely be good buying absent a complete meltdown of the KRG/ICG relationship or markets generally.

Steadily heading back to more reasonable value levels. Maybe now we will see the liquidity event needed to seed the Oslo listing. Without one that will be a dud.

Still selling down...