Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
$30 is the price oil has been sold at locally
No update => no material change from "around 33,000". So I've pencilled in 35k as optimistic. Circa $11.7m receipt per month allowing some normalisation of payables alongside covering costs. Treading water.
I'd say next to zero progress and, despite all the wailings of Jake and all his various avatars across here and other platforms, the stock - rightly - continues to languish until real news arrives. Writing down November and December production to local sales @30 of circa 35k in my model.
'Patience still required' into next year...
Unfortunately, we have no idea when they set that short - only when they crossed 0.5%. We also have no idea whether there was another side to the trade. Clearly, however, the buying back that short has supported the market for GKP stock in recent days. That support is now gone. Let's see what happens next.
"investor relations also gone quiet too"
"All parties have gone dark"
They've nothing positive to say. The good news is they have nothing negative they have to say either. So, you can safely conclude there's been no material change to volumes sold, or prices received, and no material progress with respect to contracts since the last update on the 25th of September. All very dull...
They weren't paid because they didn't produce enough. Reimbursement comes from cost oil i.e. a share of production. I said they've "been largely reimbursed." The Gross CRP balance as of 30 June '23 was $224 million. That included all costs to June but only receipts until that for Sep 22 production. GKP's share of this off-balance sheet asset was $179 million. Of the $151 million in invoices for Oct 22 to Mar 23, about $121 million is cost recovery. Once the receivables are collected there's little left in the CRP balance, just a couple of good months of normal production with export sales. Then reimbursement will be done.
Sorry for your loss. The CRP balance carried forward post restructuring. It was a key asset (off balance sheet) that attracted those who did the restructuring. The company discloses the value of the CRP on a six monthly basis. The disclosure is the gross figure. I’ve provided this amount a few posts ago as well as the amount of CRP recovery embedded in the receivables balance. Dividends (and buybacks) have been funded by recovery of this asset balance. If you don’t understand or follow the CRP you do so to your detriment.
"after Nahawi has gifted Sinopec a 10% toehold in Gulf Keystone during restructureSINOPEC use unique Dutch legal structure "STICHTING" - to hold this toehold without market being aware"
How does a recruitment agency fit into your Sinopec conspiracy theory? Ownership of Impellam Group
https://investors.impellam.com/shareholder-services/#module-842170142
https://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?tab=5&vw=own&SecurityToken=0P0000IOSB%5D3%5D0%5DE0WWE%24%24ALL&Id=0P0000IOSB&ClientFund=0&CurrencyId=BAS
Same two characters as in GKP. Hendrik M. Van Heijst aka Stichting Value Partners. And Ophorst van Marwijk Kooy aka InsingerGilissen Bankiers NV.
Just two Dutch guys trying to make money.
Maybe when Sinopec takes over they need to hire some people. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
"PUTUP, interesting thought process, but some how i thik your wrong implying the reserves have no value to the Company as they belong to IRAQ? "
I never said this. The reserves do have value to the company to the extent the company has a contract to extract them. If the reserves weren't sufficient to last until the end of the PSC then we'd be in a lot of trouble. But the company has no entitlement to reserves. It has an entitlement to a share of production over the life of the contract.
And despite what the idiot Jake thinks, that working interest isn't 80%. The Working Interest is 61.5% of a figure which ranges from 30% to 15% dependent on the R Factor. Currently that R Factor is circa 1.18 meaning the WI in profit oil is 27%. So GKP's working interest in the field is currently 61.5% of 27% = 16.6%.
The Contractor recovers costs via Cost Oil. It earns no margin on cost oil. The contractor is 80% GKP and 20% MOL. 80% is NOT GKP's working interest in the field.
Correct. And this seems totally lost on people here. As I said earlier
"The KRG has largely already reimbursed operators for their asset expenditure thus far. The reserves aren't the property of the operators; they're the property of Iraq."
And
"The fixed assets on our balance sheet reflect a mismatch between cost less depreciation and the Cost Recovery Pool. Make no mistake, Iraq 'owns' the fixed assets already. "
GKP's share of the CRP as of June 30 was 80% of $224 million = $179 million. But that was costs up to June 30 and only receipts up to and including Sep '22's production. Of the $151 million in o/s receivables, about $121 million or so is cost recovery. Once the receivables are paid and with production restart, pretty soon there isn't going to be much they owe in terms of CRP at the end of each month.
Arguably, there is a case for GKP's fixed assets to be written down to our share of the remaining CRP. The accounts are misleading by running them at cost less depreciation. (But who cares about such non-cash issues.)
Our entitlement extends to a share of production, and NOT reserves, over the life of the contract. The same contract we all hope will be ratified. (If you don't want to read the contract itself read the summary of it in the 2016 restructuring prospects available on the company's website.)
GKP has to work carefully and responsibly as they transition into the new regime. They need to be sen as a good partner for Iraq.
WTF - posts keep getting truncated
- I don't expect it to have change significantly (ie less than 10%) as they normalize payables etc
4. Pipeline ready but discussing contracts etc. Expect a repeat of the blah blah coming from KRG officials which we've known for months
Anything else?
One month since last one. What are you guys expecting?
1. Production update.
- I have 35k for Oct
2. Local sales pricing
- I've kept it at $30
3. Cash balance
- I don't expect it to have change significantly (i.e.
"It changes"
Obviously, first and foremost it changes with the price at which the field's oil is sold at. The last payment we received was for Sep 22 production. Profit Oil - CBC was approximately $4.14 per barrel (+/-)*. Brent averaged $90 that month. It will also change with the R Factor and when Cost Oil shifts to Profit Oil (i.e. when the CRP is fully recovered each month).
* That month, WITH COST RECOVERY, GKP received a bit over $20 per barrel. The bid-ask spread between that and the $6 currently offered is wide. A company can work of less than $6 if they get their direct costs reimbursed but not when they don't.
"but the production companies in KRI have issues with the allocation of production costs. They believe these allocations do not align with actual production costs, and, therefore, they refuse to export oil until this matter is resolved."
As I said on the 20th: "The issue is Cost Recovery (capex, direct opex and direct Shaikan G&A)."