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I'd still expect some sort of payment plan to be what's worked on during the "90 days" after export resumption. But then again, who knows? Answer: no one. GKP will have recovered about $11 million of the $151 million by the end of this month. On export restart the recovery would step up to about $5m a month just by re-billing historical cost recovery depending on prices achieved and volumes of course. In my model that's a further $19m in the last 4 months of this year assuming export restart on 1 October. Currently I assume they recover the remaining balance over two years, at about $5m a month, and discount that at 15% pa. So that balance is already factored into my current valuation as 34p per FD share. Were they to be paid the full balance at year end in one go it would add 19p of value to the YE 'fair value'. (My fair value remains below the current price so perhaps the market is already pricing in a more favourable outcome or, more likely, pricing in a lower RRoR.)

$15 million. Possibly $20 million. Money leaving the company.

You forgot to add Brent at $120 a barrel

Maybe they've already piled in as each successive expectation of imminent re-opening has drawn more and more into the stock. Who is left waiting on the sidelines?

Export reopening, the most anticipated and telegraphed event ever

We have no idea what the other side of the long-short trade is and whether they've made money or not.

So far they've met willing sellers, most notably Schroders, in halving their position. Let's see what happens.

GLG reduced again yesterday. Now down to -1.44%

Unclear. They've typically put out a notice by RNS firming up the date but perhaps aren't bothering this time around.

Second week of August and still no notice of when the company will present first half results... As a reminder, last year the notice went out on the 1st of August with publication on the 29th. Of course the first half results themselves are of little value and already known except for the final few days of June. Yet guidance will be important. With the shut-in, management's production guidance for the year (40-45k bopd) is quite probably at risk. 44.9k bopd for the first half has been overshadowed by likely less than 750k total of the second half so far. Projections for free cash flow generation in the second half continue to be revised downwards. Currently I have $16.5 million from 'current' operations, plus a further $20 million from one-off arrears recovery - all assuming exports restart in October. They get lowered as each shut-in day passes and export restart gets delayed again. Still waiting for Godot.

Have a great weekend. It's been a superb week!

I don't disagree with the views on management. They're solid and people I trust know them well. As I said, they're doing all the right things and have cleared the decks of prior cr*p. So I expect them to perform. I played the depression to circa 40p hard. That play is probably now done. From now on it's more about blocking and tackling and being rewarded for achieving solid growth. More mundane, less return - but not necessarily low return. Even earning 16% pa (KBW's cost of equity) wouldn't be bad (the company isn't earning anything like that though so more would need to discounted forward by investors). That's 146p YE 2026. I merely expect a pullback from today's highs before a slower chug forward. (Hence the Hold rating and taking some profit having made 3x.) Let's see how it goes... It's certainly been fun so far. Now I need to find the next 3 bagger...

Of course. And hence KBW write in their note of 3 August:

"Target price - We increase our target price to 120p (from 110p) based on a sustainable ROTE of 14.5% and cost of equity of 16.0% applied to forecast TNAV26e 151p (from 147p) using ROTE/COE formula discounted to 12mths forward."

Apply to forecast and discount back. So if you think, today, NAVPS will be 167p at the end of 2027 and the company is then achieving a RoE equal to its cost of equity and hence a multiple of 1 is applicable then discount 167 back at your required return on equity for one year to get your expectations for the end of '26. My point is your expectation of 200p at the end of '26 would require either (a) a substantially higher 2027E book value per share than KBW expects and/or a sustainable return on equity being achieved by the company far exceeding their cost of equity (and hence warranting a multiple in excess of one). That's not to say that their (or your) expectations may change with events as things go along and it's fine to have your own view, but recognise that it is way way way out in front of the likes of Ed Firth and team at KBW. They are being guided by management in 1-on-1 meetings. I'd say their current expectations aren't too far removed from management's current base case. I'd love to see the detailed model that supports your company projections.

Here's hoping things surprise to the upside and your expectations are met!! In the interim, I will keep both feet on the ground.

From KBW's note 7 August (before today's rally):

"The shares have rallied over +150% YTD but, trading on KBWe PE26 7.5x (PE27e 4.5x) and PTBV25e 0.8x, do not feel particularly expensive. Reiterate Outperform, TP120p."

KBW forecasts for NAV: 2026E 151p, 2027E 167p (this 2027E may be revised slightly upwards as it appears they updated 2026E 147->151 with the results but don't seem to have changed 2027E). A 200p target would be very rich without a major uplift in forecast book equity and achieved RoE. KBW, for example, use a cost of equity of 16% (with current returns mid single digits). Management don't expect to cross that threshold before 2027 (although markets can discount it forward). (Obviously if the company isn't achieving or expected to achieve its cost of equity the appropriate multiple is less than 1.)

I still own a lot of this and will be holding for a few months at least (I have a minimum hold period of one year). I think management are doing all the right things and communicating clearly. But we have to remain realistic.

The appropriate metric is share price to book value of equity (NAV) rather than assets (which ignores the liabilities side of the balance sheet) but feel free to use whatever you want

Hit my price target this morning. Looking extended at these levels. I have sold about a quarter of my position today/yesterday. (My average entry is about 41p.) KBW forecast a NAV per share of 151p for YE 2026 (raised from 147p). At 0.8x (fwd) book the share is fully valued given current low RoE. (Not sure where the hell the gardener gets his numbers from.) It can trade higher with time but I think it may well face a pullback. Hence happy to take some profits.

Why on earth would you expect a dividend? 2027 for those.

And reduced the short even further yesterday...

I would expect it to be a difficult conversation to get an insurance company to pay out for loss of income when there was no actual impairment to facilities etc and any closure was purely precautionary. But maybe I'm wrong.

GLG bought almost everything Schroders sold