Member Info for PUTUP

Because (amongst other things) your cash flow expectations are not even close to realistic. But good luck!! Perhaps, so as to not be so disingenuous to less sophisticated readers who might actually be inclined to believe your nonsense, your might actually want to post how your derive your figures as per the PSC (or perhaps you assume a much better contract). The assumptions and arithmetic will no doubt be incredulous.

PS: If you defer a 3 week shut down from 2025 to 2026 you'd expect, ceteris paribus, for 2025 guidance to be raised. It wasn't.

PPS: Time for more school. You need to look at Enterprise Value as a multiple of cash flow (not Equity Value). Back out the cash and receivables. Use a fully diluted share count. And don't place a multiple on one-off cash flow - back it out first.

Bid it up and you'll find out :)

You would have made a fortune had you bought when I said to buy - May 2020 through until August 2021. The question now is when to sell...

1. Boll*cks. But, again, I hope you're right. I wouldn't bank on it though.

2. No. The PF2 shutdown has been pushed into 2026. Despite pushing as 3 week shutdown into 2026 guidance was kept the same.

3. Even with the PF2 shutdown pushed into 2026 field production continues to fall. Management have guided that production capability continues to fall without new drilling. Management have confirmed in Q&A that new drilling is required to regain production highs.

4. If they're priced in they're priced in.

Anyway I wish you luck. The stock is trading at 10x 2025E 2H annualised recurring FCF (ie ex rec) and 7x 2026E recurring FCF. Giddiness can take it higher but your valuations are utter nonsense.

Sounds like the mad batter is back

Minus ~$18 (historical discount + KBT) = ~$48/bbl

Fo years the discount (including transportation cost) was $23.20. Then another $9 was added of the KBT discount. Not $18.

2️⃣ Production uplift – No new drilling needed for 55k bopd. GKP is capped by offtake constraints, not geology.

Management have already told you otherwise. Guidance on volume for 2025 is 40-45k WITH the PF2 shutdown pushed into 2026. Guidance on volume for each new well is 3-5k bopd. To reach 55k they need to drill several successful wells. Even if they were to order a rig today that volume isn't coming on-stream until 2027. They have the equipment, but still need to order a rig and do the drill.

Receivables recovery over two years is already priced in. If the full amount were paid tomorrow instead that's an uplift of 10p per share.

Good luck!

" happy that GKP is heading over £2"

Spoken as if a certainty 🤔

A dividend will be announced with the half year results regardless. I'm expecting $15 million as the company pays out the last of the CRP and recovered arrears.

No clue Opu, I'd be very happy for you to be right. However, you've consistently been wrong. Time and time again.

💰 Price uplift: +$25/bbl on export sales

Good luck with that thinking. If only you were right. Brent is currently $66. Subtract the $23.20 historical discount plus, say, $6 of KBT (it averaged $9 previously). You therefore have $36.80. That's an uplift over local sales at $28 but not $25/bbl; more like $8.80/bbl. And major investment banks forecast Brent to fall into the mid-50s.

Production uplift can't happen without drilling so that's a 2027 benefit at best.

Giddy up

Giddy, giddy. Lots already in the price. Trimming into strength to redirect elsewhere...

It's one or the other. It can't be breaking out AND consolidating. My personal view is that there's still plenty of potential to clear recent highs in the short term. 20% + upside from here over the next 6 months. Supreme Court ruling (and subsequent government action?) expected in the next few weeks which will hopefully clear the sector air somewhat even if less directly relevant to Vanquis itself. Onward.

The big question is whether the local sales price can hold up in the face of a fall in international Brent into the mid 50s.

And during all this quagmire of an uncertain future we have no investment in production capacity - production will continue to fall. Fair value continues to decline without drilling.

Well that was short-lived. Now only just above $70. Will we see a 6 handle again next week?

"If it gets sold for £5 that would be a result for most here"

£3 would be amazing

Qatar intercepts missiles heading to US base

Brent popped through long run resistance (dating back to mid '22) in early Asian trading. Up 4% at 80.23 at the time of writing.

Yes, good news on pricing, but need to get to the bottom of the cash generation shortfall. $15m delta is a lot - 40% miss on expected cash generation. Management clearly under pressure regarding production levels and specifically stated that they pushed out PF2 maintenance "to support production and work programme flexibility". That's not a demand-driven issue.

As for June, we will have to wait for the 1H results for the monthly detail.

"My only slight was the $100m cash balance but guess that's down to what has been paid for and whether we're due a payment for production soon."

Yes that was very disappointing. I do know that the balance in March was apparently artificially high with various payments due shortly thereafter. And of course capex is lumpy rather than smooth. But it's still an almost $15m miss versus my expectations for the whole first half. In other words they're either generating less cash than expected, maybe capex was front loaded, or YE 24 was artificially high due to timing issues as well. Unfortunately given the level of disclosure one will have to wait for the 1H accounts to dig deeper on this.

My revised assumptions for '25 production (k bpd, Jan/Feb actuals, Mar onwards estimates):

Jan 47.9

Feb 45.2

Mar 45.25 (March 1-18th was 45.7)

Apr 44.25

May 43.75

Jun 43.0

Jul 42.5

Aug 42.0

Sep 41.5

Oct 41.0

Nov 40.5

Dec 40.0

Those figures yield a 1H average of 44.9k in line with today's disclosure and a FY average of 43.1k vs guidance of 40-45k.

Now that there will be a 3 week shutdown of PF2 in 2026, and still no drilling, what do you think management's guidance for 2026 would be right now?

It all comes down to how much growth you're prepared to pay for upfront. Previously (until this morning) I had December 25 production of 44k. Right now I have that 10% lower (and yet my average production for '25 still went up a little). Without new drilling, the production capability of the field will continue to decline. I have been assuming production of 50k for '26 and beyond (with two new wells drilled in 26). (And not prepared to pay for today for any potential growth further out given all the uncertainties that exist.) That now looks increasingly optimistic. It's more likely that guidance for 26 would be, if given, lower than 40-45k. Marking down the "and beyond" assumption has a very large impact on valuation. All that without changing price assumptions for MS and GS expectations...

"Where do you get that from? Production is on a supply driven basis from what I'v e read."

Push off a 3 week stoppage and keep your guidance the same = production running lower than anticipated previously