Member Info for PUTUP

Or Schroders who sold 1.4% of the company yesterday

They're almost never naked shorts. But they still have to buy back the stock to unwind the trade. Here's hoping they don't find a willing seller in someone like Norges taking profit.

Going to be fun when GLG starts buying back 8.4 million shares

Back, more or less, to my (cum dividend) end of August 'fair value' estimate assuming export restart in the near term (158p) and technical support at 152p or so. Ho hum. Ever closer to St Ledger's Day...

(In the meantime Vanquis has been fun)

A keen seller present today with very sizeable volume to go. Will the lid clear?

From the FT:

The Opec+ oil cartel said on Sunday it would raise production by a further 547,000 barrels a day from September, fully reversing its nearly two-year-long strategy of propping up prices by holding huge quantities of crude off the market. 

The decision marks the end of an agreement that began in January 2024 under which eight members, led by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, voluntarily cut their daily output by 2.2mn barrels after concerns about the rise of electric vehicles and sluggish oil demand growth in China.

...

As a result many forecasters predict a glut of crude could hit the market by this winter. French oil major TotalEnergies warned recently that oil would soon be “abundant”, especially if the global economy slows. 

(read the rest at FT.com)

Personally I don’t expect dividends until 2027 but they distribute value, not create it.

Clearly we didn’t appreciate the risk that when the ICG failed to have our contracts deemed invalid they’d sue Turkey for breach of contract on the ITP. And win. The good news is that Turkey is unlikely to grant exclusive access to anyone again which opens the door to valid KRG use of the pipeline. The bad news is that it’s clear the ICG is not giving up on its decade or so long battle to control export of all Iraqi oil including that from Kurdistan. So a lasting relationship between the KRG and the ICG is still needed.

The KRG went rogue, ICG sued Turkey as a result, and won and so Turkey shut the pipeline. We are where we are precisely because of ‘independent’ exports.

"And no Dividends by the way."

Management have guided that they are happy with a minimum cash of $80-85 million (too high in my opinion). As of June 19, they had a $100 million and it will have grown a little by now (almost a month of free cash flow before shut-in). If production restarts it will have grown further by mid to late August and the half year results. They have plenty of cash to distribute. But the DPS will come straight off the SP.

Indeed. These and the other articles I linked to earlier place " the 9 years of KRG independent exports" in sharp perspective.

Don't be lazy. Look at management's disclosure on their website.

What do you expect truthsayer? And I don't mean the dribble on your chin...

I'm still expecting a $15 million dividend but, as I say often, they pay out value and don't create value. Retaining a cash balance of $85 million is way more than enough. (I'd prefer they retained less.) End of next week we likely get the "notice of half year results" and on the day of those a dividend declaration.

Vanquis deserves but a sprinkle from the storm and will benefit from the sunnier skies as it passes.

Just now from the FT:

Rachel Reeves is considering changing the law to shield some of Britain’s biggest lenders from potential payouts of tens of billions of pounds over a car loan commission scandal.

The chancellor and fellow ministers have been drawing up contingency plans in the event the Supreme Court next week upholds a controversial ruling that left lenders such as Lloyds Banking Group and Close Brothers facing massive compensation payments.

Allies of Reeves said “no decisions have been taken”. But senior officials said one option would be to change the law to supersede any Supreme Court judgment that upholds the huge payout.

Https://amwaj.media/en/article/deep-dive-will-end-to-pipeline-feud-revive-flow-of-iraqi-oil-to-israel

https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/new-pipeline-transform-iraq-turkey-relations-2025/

Not new but interesting reading

The days of Iraq's sole use of the pipeline are long gone

How many GKP shares do you own?

FFS

"on the one" => on the way