Member Info for PUTUP

Yes. I had meant infrastructure more broadly. Sulphur handling capability, pipelines etc. There's a good deal of investment required before one can sell and use the gas effectively, even if there was a pricing mechanism. 4 1/2 years after that report and the very first steps have just been announced and they've created an uproar. I'm not holding my breath for gas sales.

How much progress on the recommended phased development (slide 3) to deal with the challenges (slide 2) do we think they've made?

This presentation from 4 1/2 years ago is worth watching again

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/gas-iraqi-kurdistan-market-realities-geopolitical-opportunities

There's a lack of electricity production facilities. Build them and maybe you have a buyer.

I’m still expecting mid 120s pence (at least) - just not as fast as recent moves

Hit my near-term target with the high today. Let's see if it lasts.

Luckily that affected 3 months only and was immaterial. Taking $3 off the price assumption permanently WOULD have dramatic consequences to implied value.

Personally, given the breakdown in cooperation, I fear exports won't restart for a considerable period of time. Furthermore, a battle for KRG independence would be an unmitigated disaster for at least several years. Now more than ever we must hope the local sales piece holds up. Our last update was 20 March. At that time Brent was trading at $72, while local sales prices had "averag[ed] between $27-$29/bbl" year to date. Average Brent YTD to 20 March was higher than $72. Brent is down 10% more since 20 March. I guess we will find out on 20 June what local sales prices have done over the last three months... Keep your fingers crossed and hope they've held up.

The last interim, paid at the end of October 2024, was 'delayed' because the company announced its new distribution policy (on 8 October). I would expect the next interim to be announced along with the half year results and paid about a month later.

But, hey, keep expecting one in July if you want. I prefer to read what management have told shareholders they're going to do. 🧐

"Expect payment in October, following announcement of the half year results in August"

From the company as recent as January: "As announced previously, the Board plans to review the Company's capacity to declare an interim dividend on a semi-annual basis around its Full Year and Half Year Results"

The last dividend was announced with the FY results on 20 March and paid a month later. Last year, the half year results were released on 29 August. So I would expect a dividend in late September/early October depending on how quickly they get the accounts done.

So corrected figures:

$10.4 receipt of which $7.2m is cost recovery - so $3.2m net. Plus $3m of arrears recovery (Oct '22 production). Subtract a bit for cash corporate overhead expense.

Assuming $28 per barrel for local sales. If this isn't holding up in the face of a declining international price then it's a real worry.

As soon as I get off the phone with my broker... :)

Ah thanks for highlighting my error. When I changed the $9 KBT to $6 I didn't alter they way I was forcing the lower price for local sales as I extended the local sales only period forward in time from April to September. So my realised price for those months was overstated by $3. Stock is more overvalued than I thought. :)

"Are we due a dividend."

Expect payment in October, following announcement of thee half year results in August

"but I'm sticking with 36% entitlement of gross field sales"

The "36%" is 35.8% rounded up. My calculations use the 35.8%.

"Capex $20m per annum"

FYI guidance is $25-30 million net ($31-37.5 million gross). We were discussing June and a high production figure for that month. The average for the year is dragged down by the steady decline in production and particularly by the 4th quarter shut in of PF. Again, the 36% assumption includes a lot of non-recurring arrears recovery.

"$13.5m revenue less $7m monthly spend = $6.5m free cash max??"

$10.8 receipt of which $7.2m is cost recovery - so $3.6m net. Plus $4m of arrears recovery (Oct '22 production). Subtract a bit for cash corporate overhead expense. Estimates of course. A plan beats no plan.

(BTW not sure who posted after you - they're in my muppet bin - and don't care.)

That's assuming volumes of 44.5k bopd for the month

I make free cash flow for June (including arrears recovery) more like $7.5 million (assuming local sales pricing has held up which I am worried about). So "clearing" a bit more than your $5-6 million.

By the end of this month we might just have recovered half the amount owed for October '22 production. Woohoo!

A bit higher but unfortunately over half of it is money we should have received a couple of years ago