Member Info for PUTUP

And yet the stock trades as if the pipeline is open... It has merely adjusted for the $10 fall in oil.

Meanwhile we slowly recover arrears - in tiny increments of circa $3.5 million a month - from local sales hoping the KRG doesn't notice that we are re-invoicing costs already invoiced in the arrears.

That sh*t show isn't going to be over anytime soon

And back down she goes...

So Brent has had a nice recovery - all the way back to old support levels (and then off just a touch). Will it push through this old-support-new-resistance-level or will it revert back downwards? Hopefully it can push through but the macro environment is not in its favour.

The $16 is a provisional number which will be adjusted later when actual costs have been audited. Actual costs are currently well below this figure and, of course, recoverable costs are 'dollar-out, dollar-in' - there's no margin earned on these by the IOCs. The only margin is Profit Oil (less CBC) which must cover an IOC's unrecoverable costs.

Wibble having a wobble?

In the bin you obnoxious fella!

Its you should check with management to see if they share your view....

Brilliant!

"Well that’s not so bad"

It has certainly done well (so far) today considering renewed weakness in US markets and oil and an appreciating Sterling.

Anyone thinking this cr*p is over is rather naive in my view.

I'm also astonished at how few people understand GKP's beta relative to the oil price. GKP was very rich in the run up to the YE results. Currently its value is much more fair (although at the margin still expensive) given oil's current level. Carry on.

Insane volatility. This cr*p could go on for a while yet.

Non-retaliating countries. EU was about to retaliate. Hopefully they wait. Brent bouncing nicely.

Haha no way we get any interest

As we discussed earlier, I lowered this following some company feedback. So the assumption is more aggressive than previously. But no one knows yet what price exported oil will be sold at so like everything else it's an assumption to be updated whenever new information comes to light. However, a plan always beats no plan. 😊

Just now I updated my model for lower oil prices this year. I'm still assuming a substantial rebound in Brent from current levels. Specifically, I currently have local sales at $27 for April and $26 for May. Thereafter I have exports (for now) - prior discount of $23.20 plus $6 KBT discount. Brent $62.50 June-August. $65 thereafter. Well above current. My production assumptions come out at the midpoint of company guidance for the year.

2025 FCF from continuing operations (ie excluding arrears recovery) = $47 million.

Key words: Present Value

A modest (not small) $ difference (substantial in % terms) a month adds up to a lot of value over, say, 10 years. And we don't get back to growth (even back to 50k production) without exports. Without resolution to the issues of export/contract etc production will continue to dwindle.

210p looks a long way off now... but maybe we get lucky and there's a quick resolution to this man-made shock.

For example, my estimate of FCF from continuing operations (ie excluding arrears recovery) for 2025 has fallen from about $56 million to $51 million as I have adjusted oil prices downward - before this debacle even started. (And that figure is boosted by the last of the historical cost recovery which isn't in the arrears.) It would need to be lowered much further to reflect current oil prices if we assumed they prevailed for the full year or local sales persisted further into the year. The impact to value of this, though, is much, much smaller than assuming the company only ever does local sales going forward or returns to exports but with realised export prices $5 lower. The PV impact of the medium to long term far outweighs the short term.

As is so often the case, it's not about the short term but rather the medium and long term. If I thought there wasn't going to be a return to exports and full recovery of the arrears I'd dump my entire holding today. As you say, let's see what happens.

"With Brent at $61 it doesn't make much difference whether we're "selling locally" or exporting is the way I see it."

It still makes a big difference. This time last year, at much better global oil prices, local sales were $25 a barrel. Even $5-6 a barrel is worth a lot per share. Brent how now pushed into the 50s. I'd expect there to be considerable pressure on local sales prices as well.