Member Info for PUTUP

I sold 20% of my position. Didn't get execution on higher sell levels (unfortunately). Not interested in buying the sells back at anything like these levels. The stock can still move higher over time if events unfold as expected. Holding balance for 15% pa returns.

Assuming full re-opening of exports and recovery of all arrears

Priced more fairly now

This has been around for years. No news

Still priced for perfection

Of course. There are currently (prior to the forthcoming LTIP grant) 9.2 million zero cost option awards o/s.

(When thinking about valuation you should use the fully diluted share count which adds these to the ordinary shares in circulation.)

LTIP awards still to come... Inbound momentarily.

In fairness the current DBP award hasn't vested yet. They need to stick around for 3 years.

(And given there's no shares held in treasury and a measly sum in the EBT it's likely new shares will be issued when/if they do vest.)

The Cheshire nutter is back at it again.

"netback of $30 a barrel (after costs and PSC terms)" 🤣🤣🤣.

We can all dream this will be the case. The real answer is about $5. The mad batter has no clue.

Back closer to fairer value and some support at today's low. Carry on.

"What went wrong ?

Run out of brown envelopes or ……. whatever."

I heard they were disappointed with the latest batch of biscuits. Lift your game Invstrat, we need you. 🤣

Give it up Starsalign. Straycat's stupidity is both self-evident and self-admitted. Repeatedly. I've just left him in the filter bin alongside 6 other muppets.

Although they declared 6.015460% on the 3rd of Feb while the AR lists them at 3.61% as of 28 Feb.

Yes it does. NBIM

Starsalign (whoever you are) I'm assuming you are replying to one of the muppets in my filter bin judging by the green lines on the page. Just bin the cannon fodder. Gnats have greater intellect.

An interesting filing considering the annual report had them owning 19.98% as of 28 February... Today's filing has them going from 16.16% -> 17.04%. Maybe I'm missing something.

BTW the intelligent exchanges are great Starsalign. Very refreshing.

Unfortunately it's not you - unless it is removed completely. 🤪 Mgt would argue $9 is possibly a tad high by 'several dollars'. For now I'm not making the change as it is dwarfed by the impact of not returning 100% to exports and on that no one has any clue right now. Let's see.

Back in September I outlined the meetrics/milestones by which I thought the CEO needed to be judged. Progress on item 4 would be great (first step in that regard being exports).

"Yes, the task at hand isn't easy. But that's what we pay him for. (And doubled his cash comp.) He needs to achieve:

1. sanctity of key current contract terms

2. recovery of the receivables

3. payment surety

4. better pricing - a reduction in the discount Shaikan oil is sold at

5. growth"

FWIW the company disclosed KBT discount figures of $11, 12, 13, 12, 10 and 6 for the months of Sep '22 though Feb '23. That's an average of $10.6. We will have to see how things go on reopening. I'd love to have positive news in this regard.

The value beta to the sales price per barrel is high. Reducing the discount oil is sold at (or a rise in prices generally) has a great impact on value. That's the reason a return to exports is so important (and why only partial exports would likely be very disappointing). And, of course, one must compare personal expectations with an estimate of what is already factored into the share price by the market...

I haven't seen the article, but some of the published research I have seen was of very low quality. Also, focusing on just revenues would be a mistake.

FWIW my revenue forecasts for 2025 have always been closer to $200 million. Currently I expect revenues of $144 million from continuing operations and another $56 million from arrears recovery.

So I don't see the revisions as being negative (if indeed expectations were previously much higher). Rather they are simply more sensible. The bias would likely be for more downward revisions if 100% export isn't resumed very soon but let's see.